Member Info for Alnwick

At first sight I was a little disappointed as I fully expected 70M PBT.

However I hadn't factored in the one off costs of ReFi , Acquisition fees and Re Org. which come to 6M

PBT came in at 64.1M so my expectation was actually met !

There are many things to like with CARD Results , Revenue , EBITDA, Sales in line etc.

But I'm very surprised that CARD have increased the Dividend by increasing the Debt !

New Divi is 4.8P which costs the Company 16.7M

I prefer to reduce debt.

Shares are currently down 4p at 95p valuing CARD at 331M

That's crazy cheap for a business that will make 70M+ this year

Its also worth mentioning a couple of additional upsides.

Interest rates are going to fall and CARD look like they won't be effected with Tariffs !

I will reinvest my Dividend.

I'm confident the UK business will come in at or around 70M.

My little concern is what effect Trump Tariffs may have on the Garven business in the USA.

Most of their products will come from China and the Far East and Trump Tariffs could add 145% !!!

That said Garven is 5% of Group Sales.

Best

CARD have already told the market in January that

It expects to deliver adjusted pretax profit in line with current market expectations in the 2025 financial year.

It sees the current consensus estimate as between GBP65.7 million and GBP67.0 million, with an average of GBP66.0 million. Adjusted pretax profit was GBP62.1 million in financial 2024.

Maybe just Maybe Darcy has something up his sleeve and reports a profit of £70M and an increase in the Dividend.

That would Burn the shorts !!!

Let’s hope so.

Hi Rogue,

There's a huge difference between posting a trading loss and losing money !

ppywgda said " SAGA has continued to lose money"

That's not correct which is was why I posted on the 21st April.

SAGA haven't lost money for 2 years!

They are generating positive cash flows and paying down debt.

The future is looking Good.

Best Wishes

Hi ppywgda,

Good post but one large error.

SAGA has made an accounting loss but the underlying business has made profits and generated cash which is how the company has paid down the debt.

The write down ( impairment) of the Goodwill has been substantial largely due to the Insurance deal.

The SAGA Ship is now Sailing North !

Best Wishes

We all have a view on the motive of RDH investments in SAGA.

Personally I think RDH is firstly driven by the fact that SAGA was started by his Father and he didn't want to see it go bust !

which it very nearly did.

Secondly he's a smart guy and the deal put to him by Sutherland ( The only Good thing he did as CEO ) at the time was a great deal.

RDH has made further investments as a statement of faith in the companies prospects and a positive signal to the market to encourage more institutional investment.

SAGA have a few fairly new investors , Norges ( Norwegian Pension Fund who are huge) and the Bank of Singapore.

There are also many institutions who like most individual shareholders are significantly underwater !!

These institutions like most of us have seen the companies prospects improve considerably under Mike Hazell and won't go cheap !

RDH will be feeling positive and like most shareholders looking forward to a significant return on his investment over the next 5 years.

Best Wishes

PS

Buglet11

I think you've got little chance of seeing 120p again !

Hi Rogue,

I would personally like to see the company continue to

focus on debt reduction, which they have confirmed ,

and forget about dividends.

The great dividend for all shareholders would be the Directors achieving their 5 year incentive

£6 per share !

Best Wishes

Hi ZCCAX77,

The generation of people born before the mid 1950s own £1.7Trillion of residential property by value, or 46 per cent of all housing equity held by owner-occupiers, according to an analysis of official data by Savills, the estate agents. The figures exclude landlords because age data for them is not collected.

This is the SAGA Database

The potential is Huge !!

On a normal trading day SAGA would be up 20+

Mike Hazell and his team are doing a great job.

Lots of upside here !!

CARD products are mostly paper and card based so most of the base stock will come from Europe.

Fancy Goods and plastics tend to come from the Far East.

There Import from China to the U.K.

Re-Box the product in the U.K.

Ship the product to USA

TARIFF 10%

Deutsche Bank raises its price target for the provider of travel and insurance services to people aged 50 and over to 185p from 154p. It has a 'buy' rating on the stock.

A highly reputable Broker Upgrade and Sells out number Buys 2-1

I guess a lot of historical investors are happy to cut and run every time the stock moves higher.

I understand their pain as SAGA has been Wealth Destruction!!!

I’m sure we have turned the Tide ( pardon the pun)

April 9th is going to be the best year end report we have seen for 5 years.

I hope !

Best Wishes

Hi Lorenzo,

CARD do deliver overseas as we send Cards to friends and relatives in USA , Portugal and France.

CARD obviously don’t have the Worldwide Digital Printing Network that MOON have but I’m sure its in the works.

The quality of CARD personalisation and the base material is now exactly the same as MOON and the prices are

virtually half !!

Lots of upside potential.

Best Wishes

With 10 trading days till SAGA Results todays 5.5% increase could be MM fishing for shares.

The general consensus seems to be a Net Profit for 2024 of mid to high 50’s.

We will probably see further writedown on the Insurance business but the market reaction to the Results should be positive!

What is interesting is the P/E ratios of other major Cruise-lines;

Carnival 12. Royal Carribean 12. Norwegian 11.

We could see SAGA moving further upwards in the next 10 days.

Patience could prove to be a virtue !!

We have cruised on Regent Navigator and its part of Regent Seven Seas Cruise-line which is owned by Norwegian Cruise-Lines. It’s not a crusty old ship its just old.

Regent are the leading company in all suite cruising.

However it’s good price and suggests SAGA ships are worth at least double.

As I’ve said many times on this site the break up value of SAGA is many times greater than the current market cap.

We are Sailing !

January Update stated that SAGA results would be higher than previous guidance.

Last year SAGA made 45.3 underlying profit.

I think the Net profit number will be in the 50’s and hopefully be close to 60M

Best Wishes

Hi zccax77

Mike has only been CEO for 15 months and has achieved more in that time than Sutherland and Bachelor achieved in

7 years.

The refinance deal has saved the company and the Aegis deal should prove to be lucrative.

He’s excited !!

My monthly SAGA Magazine arrived and the introduction page by SAGA CEO tends to give a few indicators of what’s going on.

This month its financial planning and the refinancing that SAGA have carried out and Mike Hazell’s final sentence is interesting;

“ I’m really excited about what the rest of the year will bring. Watch this space !”

Mike can’t tell you to buy the shares but when a cautious account gets excited that’s a positive !!!!

Let’s hope so.

Hi All,

We are avid cruisers and have spoken to Saga regarding a number of cruises and sadly they don’t work for us.

The reasons being ;

1. The only sail out of the South Coast and even with a provided Chauffeur driven car it’s a 6-7 hour drive from Northumberland.

2. All cruises South have to cross the notorious Bay of Biscay ! We have sailed over Biscay a number of times and it can be awful.

3. Because of the above your 2 week Mediterranean Cruise only spends 8 days in the Med.

The 2 Ships get good reviews and as shareholders we would like to cruise with SAGA but sadly they won’t allow you to start your cruise in Lisbon or Malaga.

Given the fact that most of the U.K. population live in the South I think SAGA cruises will continue to Boom !!

Best Wishes

INTERESTING!

LONDON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Europe's largest tour operator TUI (TUI1n.DE), opens new tab could look to buy smaller, specialist travel firms in the coming years to expand its global brand, Chief Executive Sebastian Ebel told Reuters on Friday.

"There are a lot of great opportunities outside, of companies which have built a great business but don't have the right brand," Ebel said.

Hi All,

SAGA made an announcement on 30th January that they have negotiated a new 335M new term loan.

They stated that this will repay the 75M drawings on RDH 85M loan and the 250M Senior Unsecured Notes.

I would expect them to have made provision for the 63M.

This New Term Loan and the sale of the Underwriting Business are game changers !

Happy Weekend