Member Info for Alnwick

There are a number of Cruise & Travel listed companies here are 3 of the largest.

Royal Caribbean P/E 12

Carnival P/E 13.8

Norwegian P/E 21

If SAGA had a P/E of 10 ( after tax) it would have a market cap of 700M

SAGA current market cap is 179.6

Huge Upside Potential

It’s going to be very interesting to see what value Ageas place on SAGA Insurance.

Based on their 3.2B bid for Directline who have 9.4M policies.

My guess is SAGA Insurance is worth 600M +

Sell the whole Insurance business and you wipeout the Debt leaving a Cruise and Travel business that would make approx

100M

The share price would then be Very Interesting !!!!

Huge Upside Potential

Apologies I didn’t specify the route.

Alnwick- Alnmouth- Seahouses-Bamburgh-Berwick-Eyemouth-Dunbar-North Berwick- Gullane Musselburgh -Leigh-Edinburgh

Hope this helps !

Hi zccax77

Teaser Answer

If we still had the old fashioned share certificates which were A4 in size and each certificate was worth 126P and you laid them landscape I have enough share certificates to take me from Alnwick to Edinburgh.

You tell me the answer ?

Hi MCNol , The only major change to CARD is an increase in costs which is primarily the increase in the

National Minimum Wage.

The company reiterated its guidance for the current financial year and stated that it will make up the drop in profits by cost cutting efficiency's and pricing.

CARD reinstated the interim dividend and they now yield 5.9%

House broker also reiterated their buy with a target of 180P

Personally I think CARD has bottomed and the buyers are returning.

As always the Christmas trading period is key.

Best Wishes

Hi Banbury, I hope you’re well and welcome back.

Your posts on SAGA in 2020-21 were very informative and at 420p I should have Sold.

C’EST LA VIE !!

I decided to Pound Cost Average and I’m now waiting for RDH invitation to join the board.

I’ve got Shed loads !!!

My average cost per share is now close to 200P so a Knees Up at York when SAGA is 200+ would be great

Best Wishes

PS. Do you still have contact with Roxbury ?

SAGA Results up to January 31st 2024

Revenue 741.1M

EBITDA 116.5M

PBT. 45.3M ( Before GW Impairment)

Outlook Statement told the market :

Ocean Cruise made 45M per ship in 2023/24 and bookings for 2024/25 are up 9% as are per Diems

River Cruise made 3M in 2023/24 and bookings for 2024/25 are significantly ahead of last year

Travel made 1.5M in 2023/24 and bookings are up 12% for 2024/25

Insurance made 38M in 2023/24

We have to assume that providing there is no further Goodwill Impairment hit and that Insurance has stabalised

That SAGA Net Profit before tax for 2024/25 will be 70M+

The current MC is 176.8M

A decent price from the Sale of the Underwriting Business could see a significant rise in the share price.

Best Wishes

Glowacki , If you think SAGA is a “Horibble Ripoff Company”

Why did you invest ??

Hi ppywgda,

It’s almost certainly a deal suggestion!

However what we don’t know is which part of the business ,the extent and most importantly the value.

I Personally think a Sale of the insurance business to the existing underwriter Aegis is favourite.

Aegis recently tried to buy DirectLine.

Let’s hope so as this would be a Game Changer !!

Hi Glowacki,

The Motor Insurance business is wacky !

I bought a new car 2 weeks ago and looked on price comparison websites and the cheapest price was SAGA

It may have a lot to do with Post Codes.

Interestingly SAGA now insure our 3 cars provide our Private Medical Insurance and our Travel Insurance.

Their customer service is excellent!

Let’s hope a Deal is imminent

Best Wishes

Hi ppywgda,

The wet weather in September will have no impact on tomorrow’s half year results.

SAGA half year results are up to July 31st.

Providing Motor Insurance trading has improved we may get a pleasant surprise in the morning.

I’m really surprised that the BOD of CARD dropped a five star clanger with the results announcement.

Roger Whiteside (ex Greggs CEO) is Senior Non Executive on the board and one of the most successful UK Retailers in modern times. That’s why I invested.

The reality is nothing has fundamentally changed in CARD other than the hike in the National Minimum Wage.

Most Retailers make 80% of Annual Profits in November and December and CARD are no different.

CARD share price is now where it was in June when I actually topped up my holdings and I have just bought another Bunch of them.

Providing Christmas is as successful for CARD as in previous shares this is a Screaming Buy !

MERRY CHRISTMAS

WOW !

The increase in the National Minimum Wage has particularly hurt retail and Hospitality and is the only major factor in the reduction in CARD profits.

There are many positives;

50 % of CARD purchases are made in USD and the average cost in 2024 has been $1.26.

Sterling is currently $1.336 and forecast to hit $1.40 in the coming months. Large product cost reduction !

Interest rates are falling and will reduce cost of Debt.

Aldi and other retail partnerships will add to future Sales and Profits.

Online sales ( still very small) have increased 19% and the Website continues to positively develop.

Price increases. CARD have huge price advantage and could comfortably increase prices by at least 10%

I’ve taken advantage of the CARD Sale ! and added to my holdings.

Christmas is the game changer and I’m confident the CARD trading update in January 25 will reward !!

Best Wishes

I think most SAGA Investors expect the Travel & Cruise Business to continue its strong recovery.

However the Insurance business will be the sector in focus.

Directline reported last week and missed their forecast figures. ( copy statement below)

“The FTSE 250 firm saw in-force policies fall 3.1 per cent in the period, to 8.95million from 9.24million, with the biggest reduction in its motor arm, at 4.8 per cent.

Direct Line's own-brand motor policies fell to 3.12million from 3.37million over the half-year, with 254,000 exiting.

Like many insurers, the group has increased its prices in recent years to tackle high claims inflation.

The group's net insurance margin was 1.8 per cent, against forecasts of 3 per cent. “

SAGA has a large amount of Motor Policies and have been aggressive with their pricing so I think we can expect a similar outcome.

Having said that SAGA is finally beginning to recover from a very painful period in its history.

The market will be looking carefully at Cash generation

and Debt levels.

If they are moving in the right directions we may see a nice bounce in a crazy low share price on results day.

Best Wishes

4 Weeks till Results announcement on October 2nd.

Very low volumes of late so many people waiting and watching.

If SAGA Insurance business has improved in line with market conditions ( which should be further confirmed by DirectLine this week) we should get Good Results.

Has anyone seen or heard the Results announcement date ?

Historically it’s always been late September so 27th or 30th are probables.

Hopefully more Good News 🤞

Hi Accipiter,

I didn’t get a response from CARD.

Hopefully they read my correspondence and acted on it.

I continue to monitor and place orders on the CARD site and it’s improving all the time.

Lookout for www.cardfactory.com

If they break into the USA market this could really fly !!

The current P/E is only 8.76

Moonpig P/E is 21.3 !!!

Hi Smiler,

CARD needs to recruit an Online Marketeer !

There are a number of issues with CARD website and I’ve written to the company to point them out.

Here are the main three;

1. The web address is www.cardfactory.co.uk. They should buy cardfactory.com

.co.uk is to UK centric

2. The web designer has to increase the number of MetaTags.

MetaTags are snippets of code that tell search engines important information about your website.

Try and Google “Birthday Cards Online”. No sign of CARD

3. The personalisation on Card website has improved but there is more to do and more categories to add.

If and when CARD have the website upgraded and with their prices the online business will take off !

Lot’s of upside

Best Wishes

Hi zccax77,

So we are both wrong !

Thank you for confirming the accurate figures.

Happy Weekend

Hi zccax77,

The ships actually cost. 346,000,000 each and the current outstanding debt on them is 252,000,000 each

The total net debt in SAGA is still close to 650,000,000 even after paying 150,000,000 bond as a loan from RDH of 85,000,000 was used as part of the repayment of the bond.

The current value of the Ocean Cruise Ships is 450,000,000 each. plus !

New Cruise Ship values are very strong due to the demand and the wait time for delivery.

October 2nd Interim results are going to be very interesting

Best Wishes