Member Info for Alnwick

In last years Annual Report Ship Debt was 469.2M pounds.

Total Net Debt was 657.4M pounds.

150M Bond will be paid in May 2024 from a combination of Cash and loan from RDH.

Current value of the 2 Cruise ships is ?? My guess 800M pounds

These 2 Ships will make 80M+ pounds EBITDA

However the Interest , Taxes , Depreciation and Amortisation will be close to 50M pounds

So the net profit of the 2 Cruise ships will be closer to 35M pounds

Happy Weekend

Hi Rogue,

We have 2 relatively quick cars.

Audi SQ8 and Mercedes E53 AMG

We switched from AVIVA as their price increased 27%

SAGA were 14% cheaper

Let’s hope they are sticking to “Pricing Integrity!”

Plus gaining market share..

Hi Billzo,

If you look at the historical RNS you can see the First Half Year Results.

SAGA sold 800,000 new policies in the first half year of 2023 which was 6% less than 2022.

As of 31st July 2023 there were 1,600,000 policies in force which was 5% below 2022.

We were told last week that the average margin per policy had fallen from 69 pounds to 54 pounds.

So a rough estimate of the Insurance GP would be 84M pounds.

Central costs have been reduced by 7.7M with more savings to follow.

SAGA reported in their trading update in January 2023 that they were maintaining "Pricing Integrity"

In other words if a policy or enquiry isn't profitable let it go !

The Motor Insurance market is slowly returning to pre-pandemic levels.

We have tried SAGA for Insurance of our 3 vehicles every year for the last 5 years and they have been expensive.

However we obtained a price last month and SAGA were the best !

We now have Motor , Travel and Health Insurance with SAGA. The service is 1st Class.

Best Wishes

Hi Banbury,

I've missed you !

Thankfully the Geordie Boys are getting fit again.

We like playing Villa!

I would like to see Villa get 4th place and CL as NUFC have no chance this season.

Best Wishes

Hi Luckyin,

The CEO has only been in his position for 5 days !

I’ve been an investor in SAGA for 5 painful years and have been pound cost averaging most of that time.

We had a period of meteoric share price growth in late 2020 into the £4+ range but since then mostly volatility!

I’m still a Bull but my horns are battered.

Be Lucky

Hi ZCCAX77

Why would SAGA want to sell the Cruise Business ?

What they said in the trading update is we are exploring potential partners or JV.

The company told us the 2 Cruise Ships will make in excess of 80M pounds EBITDA this year.

They cost 337M pounds each to build and take 3-4 years to build.

The Ships are 5Star Deluxe vessels and demand is extremely high.

Current value of these ships will be in excess of 800M pounds.

The break up value of the SAGA business is HUGE in comparison the the current MC.

The issue in the Markets is how are SAGA paying down the 650M Debt !

I believe we will all find out on April 17th.... Possibly sooner.

Hi Bruce , you’re right Sesta Feira is the posh way of saying Friday.

The slang way is SEX which literally translated is FRI

I prefer the slang …. Friday-Sex

Thank you Rogue for your Diagnosis.

I've got Schizophrenia !!

I can't stop thinking of Six......

Maybe I'm Dyslexic too and its actually Sex !

Did you know that Sex is Friday in Portuguese.

Rupans ,

I believe last year it was 160p

As it turned out quite a good call !

Rupans,

Walker Crips 200p

NUMIS reiterated 200p

I’m sure we will see a few more upgrades in the next few days.

Best Wishes

That is the Best Trading Statement I have read in my 5 years as a SAGA shareholder.

POSITIVES

Sutherland and Quinn are gone and Mike Hazell's commentary is already more positive!

Group Growth of 10-15%

Underlying PBT forecast to be up over 100%

Ocean Cruise Load factors up 8% and Per Diems up 9%

Ocean Cruise will exceed prior forecast of 40M EBITDA per ship.

River Cruise Load factors up 59% and Per Diems up 12%

Current bookings for Travel up 20% returning to pre-pandemic levels.

Central cost savings of 7.7M Pounds and more to follow.

Cash position will be 135M-145M plus unused Revolving Credit facility of 50M and 85M from RDH. Therefore 150M bond can be repaid from existing facilities in May.

NEGATIVES

"Underlying Profit" seems to indicate another Goodwill write down

Insurance Businesses continues to be challenging with policy sales down 9%

Clarity required on Insurance Underwriting and Strategy on Ships.

My broker has update their forecast for the SP this year to 200p

Best Wishes

I tend to agree with you Rogue.

However we may not get any shareholder dilution if the deal for the 2 Ships is either outright purchase or what I believe to be the preferred option of RDH a JV on the 2 ships with another cruise line.

SAGA’s 2 ships are 5 star + and the major players in this market are Regent , Silversea and Seaborne.

We have sailed with all 3.

All 3 are experiencing exceptional demand and are all expanding their fleets.

Could be a Win-Win

Best Wishes

BREAKING NEWS ON SKY NEWS

The over-50s travel and insurance specialist could outsource the operation of its two ocean cruise ships under plans being explored by its board, Sky News learns.

Next weeks trading update is going to be Really Interesting !!!

We have to renew our Car Insurance 1st February on 3 cars and every year for the last 5 years we have tried SAGA and they have been expensive.

We have just tried again today and SAGA are the best price we can get and you have the option to fix the price for 3 years.

The 3 year fixed price option was 13.8% more expensive which I think is a good deal.

SAGA are obviously being more aggressive on their pricing and with inflation falling fast , particulary in the car market, they may be gaining market share!

SAGA now supply our Car Insurance, Travel Insurance and Medical Insurance.

The customer service is first class.

As a SAGA Shareholder give them a try.

The trading update on Tuesday 30th January is going to be very interesting !

Best Wishes

Hays Travel release a great set of figures last week and one of the largest growth areas was Cruises.

The Cruise industry released projections for the next few years and Cruise is forecast to grow close to 20% in 2024

Ocean-going cruise passenger growth

2022 20.4m

2023 31.5m

2024 36m

2025 37.2m

2026 38.5m

Next weeks Trading Statement will be very interesting!

Good Post ajc2 ,

Totally agree with you.

The Chairman has already stated that he hopes to start paying a small Dividend in 2024

CARD are delivering on every part of the strategic plan and this is a very positive update.

Let’s not forget that the Sales update is for 11 months

at £476.9M

Prior years Sales were £432.6M

I think it’s fair to assume another months sales would increase the figure to £500M+ and net profits would exceed the higher end of forecasts.

This management team are very astute and I’m sure the results on April 30th will be ahead of forecast and include the return of a Small dividend!

Interesting to reads Greggs update.

Roger Whiteside the ex CEO and the growth driver at Greggs is a Non Executive Director of CARD !

That’s why I bought into the company.

Good Fortune to all

Hi Whirlpool

Thank you for your informative post.

Someone just spent £225,000 on 161,000

Best Wishes

Hi Rupans,

Somebody Selling today!

# Trades 231

Vol. Sold 362,897

Sold Value £510.56k

Vol. Bought 65,078

Bought Value £90.85k

PE Ratio -0.738428

Earnings -185.80

Dividend 0.00

Yield 0.00%