Member Info for Alnwick

Hi Rupans , My mistake your Debt number is correct.

It doesn’t change my opinion , which I see you agree with, that SAGA is getting over the worst and should be heading in a Northerly direction ⬆️

Best Wishes

Here’s what I believe is a compelling investment case for Saga.

SAGA gross debt is £657.4M

( £63.9M was repaid in the last 12 months)

SAGA currently has £180.7M in Cash.

Net debt is therefore £476.7M

Assets

SAGA has the largest database of over 50’s in the U.K.

currently over 10M. HUGE VALUE

SAGA has 2 New Cruise Ships which would cost

£700-800m to build at todays cost

These ships will generate £40M each EBITDA.

SAGA Insurance has 1M+ customers

SAGA Travel has a huge database

SAGA Money has a huge database

SAGA Private Health Insurance now partners with BUPA

( Potential acquirer of this division)

The current M/C of SAGA is £212M

A conservative view of the major Assets minus the Liabilities is Double the current M/C and a Bullish view would be significantly higher!

I’m still a Bull.

We are Sailing !!!

I don’t believe we had any negative surprises yesterday but a couple of Big positives.

Cash is standing at £180M

Substantial reduction in Debt

Good article in the Times today with a buy recommendation from Tempus;

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b91844dc-5d47-11ee-88d6-eacc4268cc5d?shareToken=d7e0e6768d0cd8e6119d950132d599e4

The tide is turning ….. Slowly !

Best Wishes

Card Factory PLC posted great interim earnings growth and said it is confident of meeting expectations for the full-year, despite grappling with a "challenging economic backdrop" in the run-up to the key Christmas period.

Those 3 Words CHALLENGING ECONOMIC BACKDROP

have caused a Sell Off and a great Buying Opportunity!

I find Market Screener are a good source of fairly up to date data.

Here is the latest breakdown of sales % for SAGA

Sales per Business

Cruise and Travel 52.6 %

Insurance - Motor Broking 13.4 %

Insurance - Underwriting 12.9 %

insurance - Home Broking 9.9 %

Insurance - Other Broking 7.8 %

Other Businesses and Central Costs 4.2 %

This will obviously change on Wednesday update but what I find interesting is how Cruise and Travel is now the dominant business.

Everyone seems to agree that Cruise and Travel is Booming. ( We’ve just got off a Cruise and it was Full !)

We may get a pleasant surprise on Wednesday , proving Motor Insurance hasn’t taken a Bath !!!

I recall Roxbury House always said “We are Sailing”

Let’s hope so.

Best Wishes

There’s a lot of talk on this site about the perceived incompetence of the BOD.

SAGA Floated at 2775p in 2014. with a market cap of over £2 Billion !!

The CEO was Lance Batchelor who’s leadership lead to SAGA share price falling 93% !

I bought my first shares in late 2019 and watched them half in value and then treble in price to 440p in June 2021.

I then sadly watched them crash to 69p in Nov. 2022.

I was pound cost averaging all the way down which had the two fold effect of reducing my average cost price but increasing my overall investment.

SAGA is now my largest holding.

It’s very easy to be critical of a BOD and I’m in no way defending the incumbents but we all have to take into account what the last 4 years have thrown at BOD’s

COVID

Lockdowns

Ukraine War

Raging Inflation

15 increases in Interest rates

SAGA invested in 2 New Cruise Ships and took on board! £600,000,000 of Debt

( Ships ordered by LANCE B. )

The incumbent BOD renegotiate the debt and brought in RDH as part of a refinance and rights issue.

This saved a sinking SHIP !

Like you all I’m not happy with the share price but the headwinds of the last four years are changing.

Cruise and Travel are Booming

Inflation is falling

Motor Insurance pricing is realigning

Home and Travel insurance are doing well

Private Health Insurance is Booming

These are Sector and financial facts !!

What we don’t know is how much of the above is being enjoyed by SAGA.

We are going to find out next week.

Happy Weekend

I agree with you Polishcap.

MOON P/E is 23

CARD P/E is 8

I think CARD will be Mooning next week !!!

.

Plus Postal rates are increasing which will hurt MOON

Another day of tiny volume and a 2.44% fall in SAGA share price.

The current price is 9p ( pre consolidation)

I think there are a number of issues at play here.

The Company are very prudent!

The market in the shares is very thin and average trade is less than 7,500 shares.

RDH and institutions hold 70+% of the shares.

SAGA share price performance since flotation has been Wealth Destruction with the price having fallen over 90%.

Most shareholders including Institutional are waiting for some positive news in 3 weeks time.

Cruise and travel will be Great !

Direct Line reported today the margins are improving

so you would expect SAGA to be in a similar situation and interestingly Direct Line said that underwriting margins were too.

Best Wishes

Good evening SAGA investors

Today we saw less than 100,000 shares traded which represents just over £100k and our friendly MM marked down the share price by 2.8%

They are shaking the tree !!!!

We must be looking forward to positive results in 3 weeks and a substantial increase in this ridiculously low share price !!!

Hi Meoryou,

I hope you had a good cruise.

We go Cruising again next week and have 2024 + 25 already booked.

Most Cruise companies are now releasing 2026 destinations.

If you don’t book early the good suites are already booked !

Cruise and Travel is booming and as I’ve said on this site a number of times SAGA must be enjoying record bookings and revenues.

We will find out soon !

Best Wishes

Good figures from Aviva this morning.

“Sales in private health insurance rose by 58% for both individual and corporate customers, with Aviva pointing to pressure on public health services helping to drive demand.”

We bought SAGA private health insurance in January and it’s great ! Very competitive and really good overseas cover.

SAGA must be experiencing a similar increase in demand for PHI. With NHS wait times at record highs. If you have the financial resources you go private.

Sad but true !

Corryvreckan , We had a yacht in Largs for a few years and would regularly sail up to Crinan and Jura. Beautiful !

Best Wishes

Hi Thompson , Corryvreckan ( Not a good place to be on a boat !)

Thank you for the information.

What’s clear is the volumes on SAGA trades are very small as most investors are waiting for some Good News.

We hope !

Hi Thompson ,

If you believe the volume figures are not factual then please give us what you believe the factual figures are and where you obtained the data from.

I’m open to new sources of data.

Thank you

Hi Thompson ,

If you believe the volume figures are not factual then please give us what you believe the factual figures are and where you obtained the data from.

I open to new sources of data.

Thank you

Here in lies one of the major issues with SAGA share price.

Today there was 127 trades

Vol. Sold 70,212

Sold Value £103.04k

Vol. Bought 90,543

Bought Value £132.99k

In total £235k

Bought value was 30% higher than sold and the share price was marked down 4p or close to 3%

Many small traders are buying and selling on a daily basis.

The smart money are waiting for late September!

Best Wishes

Hi FarEnd,

Thank you for clarification.

So our Chairman and largest shareholder is under water Too !!

RDH break even is 216p ?

The only difference is RDH knows the Good News.

We Hope !

Best Wishes

Hi All,

For the newer SAGA shareholders , when looking at SAGA share price performance you have to take into account the share consolidation of 15-1 which occurred mid 2020.

So todays closing price of 145p would be 9.5p in historical terms.

The market cap today is 204M.

SAGA Floated at 2775p in 2014. with a market cap of over 2 Billion !

I bought my first shares in late 2019 and watched them half in value and then treble in price to 440p in June 2021.

I then sadly watched them crash to 69p in Nov. 2022.

I was pound cost averaging all the way down which had the two fold effect of reducing my average cost price but increasing my overall investment.

SAGA is now my largest holding.

I firmly believe this business will become a cash cow again !

As I’ve said on this forum a number of times , Travel and Cruise is booming.

The Motor Insurance market is beginning to recover and the new range of products and services is gaining traction.

The shorts are closing as the market is anticipating some Good news in September results.

We need to see a positive financial statement , disposal news of underwriting and further reduction in debt.

Then we will be sailing !!!!

Best Wishes

Total volume of shares traded today was 43,484,318

Seller volume was 15,472,741

Buyer volume was. 25,194,644

Excluding the exceptional items and the 25M payment to the Russian hackers Capita actually increased profits and paid down yet another chunk of debt.

Todays drop in the share price is way over done !

I’ve doubled up this afternoon.

Best Wishes

I think we all agree that the September results for Travel and Cruise will be Good.

This weeks results and commentary from Sabre Insurance gave indications that the motor insurance business has turned the corner !

Sabre have taken a very similar approach to motor policy pricing and renewals as SAGA and are seeing the renewals and margins coming back to pre Covid levels.

SAGA must be having the same results.

We may get a pleasant surprise in September!!!