Member Info for Alnwick

Hi Noob34. CARD share price will have to double from current level to be admitted to 250.
That obviously depends on where the existing companies in the FTSE 250 MC are at that time.
FTSE 250 is reviewed quarterly.
CARD results are due April 25th.
I’m sure quite a few people took some Chips off the table when CARD hit £1. I was tempted !
I decided against as the fundamentals in CARD are compelling and I believe the future prospects are Good.
Best Wishes

Interesting article in yesterdays Times on the return of Bricks n Mortar Retailing.
Rents/leases have fallen heavily and Mike Ashley (Frasers Group) is looking to buy 2 Malls.

Hi Salfordred,
The original United and most of Newcastle are looking forward to United v United at Wembley.
I’m hoping it’s a little better than previous encounters !
Best Wishes

Hi Spights. The net debt is covered by the ships.
What’s really interesting;
2 Ships should produce £40M per ship = £80m
4 River ships should produce £1.5m per ship = £5m
Travel will eventually make money ! = ?
Insurance Could make £40-£50m
Media and everything else £10m
Therefore NP in 3-5 years £130m - £150m
Apply a modest multiple of 8 times NP after tax
MC = £860,000,000
That equates to £6 per share which happens to be the number that the employee share option scheme
kicks in!
Going to be a very interesting few years.

I do find many of the posts on this site really informative and some of you guys obviously put a lot of time and effort into what you post.
My rational Exuberance for SAGA’s business is based on many years of building , buying and selling companies.
£721,000,000 is a huge debt for a company valued at £250M and is precisely the reason the share price collapsed to 71p!
The reality is the 2 new Cruise ships are the bulk of that debt and they are worth considerably more than the purchase price just based on inflation.
The price of steel alone has rocketed.
SAGA has £141,000,000 in the bank so the Net Debt is
£580,000,000 and is covered by charges on the ships.
Travel is booming and the Baby Boomers are spending.
SAGA has 10,000,000 over 50’s on its database.
I think it’s fair to assume that SAGA travel and cruise is going to trade strongly in the coming years.
Insurance the historical cash cow is having a tough time but so is the whole insurance industry.
The economics of the Insurance industry will settle and it wouldn’t surprise me to see another offer for the whole of SAGA Insurance as the sector consolidates.
They received an offer a few years ago of 32p per share ( pre stock consolidation of 15-1) which is the equivalent of £4.80 per share today.
Half that would wipe out a huge part of the debt.
There will be a number of imponderables in the coming years but I remain confident that time and patience will pay dividends with SAGA.
Best Wishes

I’ve been buying SAGA for 3 years based on my research as a recovery play.
If you bought 3 months ago Congratulations!
You’ve doubled your money.
SAGA is now my largest holding and I’m still under water but profits are in sight.
This management team are turning this business around. It’s taking longer than I thought but we’ve had some extreme unforeseen circumstances.
A Pandemic , Ukraine War and raging inflation creating a cost of living crisis.
As I mentioned on a previous post we purchased Health Insurance and Travel Insurance from SAGA and their products are the best we could find.
Check it out.
Motor Insurance is still a dog fight but they are maintaining a strict pricing policy and margins aren’t falling as much as Direct Line.
Travel is rebounding across the board.
IAG , EASY, TUI, ROLLS etc are all on the up and I believe this will continue.
Cruise’s are selling out at Regent , Seaborne, Silversea and it’s largely “Grey Tops” myself included and SAGA have a data base of 10,000,000 over 50’s
The SAGA magazine is very informative and the reader base is rising. As a shareholder subscribe.
The new Online initiative just launched could become a huge business in its own right. Remember Facebook started on a University campus and was aimed at students.
SAGA ‘s is aimed at over 50’s and they already have the 10,000,000 database.
I could go on as I get genuinely excited at the potential this business has.
However it’s all about Execution,Cash Generation, paying down the debt and continuing to be innovative.
The hard work of the last three years is slowly coming to fruition.
Best Wishes to all.

We have been looking to renew our International Travel Insurance and the best overall package and price we have found is SAGA.
Comprehensive cover which includes $10M cover for travel in the USA.
SAGA are getting their act together in their insurance business. This is the 3rd product we have bought in 2 months.
Tuesday 24th January is going to be very interesting!
Best Wishes

Good evening SAGA investors
I value the input of most of the posters on this platform and I have a chuckle at some of them.
Diandto is a classic !
Take a look at some of his recent posts;
24th Oct. Placed a buy order at 59p
( the all time low is 71p)
27th Oct. Sadly missed the party
( so I guess you didn’t buy )
12th Dec. SAGA is headed below £1
( it’s currently £1-50)
Today. I sold at £1-53 and have shorted again
( Really ???)
I’m beginning to think we have a Walter Mitty !
Best Wishes to all who Hold SAGA

What a great Trading Update !
The new forecast of £48M PBT will put CARD of a
P/E of 8.
MOON currently have a P/E of 20 !
I think there’s a lot of upside in CARD.
Best Wishes

Great Trading Update from CARD today.
Sales for 11 months £432.6M up 30%
PBT Forecast raised to £48M
That will give CARD a P/E 8
MOON P/E is 20 !
Read the RNS.
It makes references to a downturn in the market for Online sales. Not CARD !
Reads like a dig at MOON.
I’ve sold MOON and bought more CARD.
Best Wishes

Update in The Times today on average price increases in Insurance premiums in 2022.
Motor Policies up 30.2 % on average
Home Policies up 16 % on average
Home Contents up 17.4 % on average
Insurance business is fiercely competitive and SAGA told us at their last update that they are maintaining pricing integrity.
They will have lost business for sure but the increases in premiums should compensate and by maintaining pricing integrity the margins should not have suffered too much.
The fact that the CEO of the Insurance business is now on the board suggests the numbers could be Good !
This is the largest division of SAGA and historically has produced 60-70% of profit.
The Travel Industry appears to be back to pre-pandemic levels , so I would expect SAGA Cruise and Travel to have performed well and the forward bookings to be strong!
I’m beginning to think the 24th January update could be GOOD !!!!
Let’s hope so.

Hi Checkinbutyoudon,
Thank you for yet another informative post.
I found the list of Institutional Shareholders from 12 months ago;
5.3% Artemis Investment Management LLP
4.77%Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers Ltd.
4%Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management Ltd.
3.83%Abrdn Investment Management
3.25% Norges Bank Investment Management
3.02% Kernow Asset Management Ltd.
2.99%Setanta Asset Management Ltd.
2.66% Liontrust Portfolio Management Ltd.
Other than Kernow they appear to have all SOLD !
I guess that clearly confirms why the SAGA share price fell to 72p
The brave souls who bought at these crazy low levels have doubled their investment.
The SAGA believers will ultimately be rewarded as I’m sure this management team are turning the business in a positive direction.
We will find out in 2 weeks how far they have turned !!!
Best Wishes to all.

From a recent low of 72p SAGA has certainly turned the Tide !
Most of the Staff and Executive Share Options don’t kick in until £6 a share.
I don’t expect to see £6 this year but I’ve posted a few times that SAGA will out perform the Staff share option price in 3-5 years.
Huge upside potential!!!

If you bought SAGA a few months ago at 71p
You’re up 76%
Sadly many holders are down over 76% !!
I personally think the proverbial Tide has turned !!!
Merry Christmas

Shorts increased yesterday !

Roger Whiteside has been appointed to Senior Non Executive Director of CARD.
Roger is an extremely good retailer who transformed Greggs into the largest Fast Food business in U.K.
more outlets than McDonalds
I see this as a huge vote of confidence in the board and future prospects of CARD.
BEST Wishes and Merry Christmas Cards !

Hi Lovelace1958. I’m guessing that’s your Birth Year so like me you are well versed with Pile it High sell it Cheap retail. That’s what CARD are doing really well.
I’ve visited 3 stores this last week and they are all packed !
CARD is going up most days and MOON is tanking !!
I think people are being very careful with their spending and CARD are great value and good quality.
Best Wishes

Hi Banbury. The policy is fully underwritten.
I didn’t get a shareholder discount.
This is the first product I’ve bought from SAGA and I’m really impressed by the presentation, follow up and customer service.
In my last post I made a comment on the appointment to the board of the SAGA Insurance MD.
He’s obviously doing a great job.
We will hopefully get confirmation in January!
Merry Christmas

I think market sentiment for SAGA is beginning to turn positive!
Big Down Day in the markets today and SAGA is up again.
We bought SAGA Private Health Insurance last week.
The email from SAGA sales to follow up the quote and the convert the enquiry to a Sale was first class.
Customer service and the policy were also very good and great value in comparison to BUPA.
Interesting that the MD of SAGA Insurance has been invited to join the board. Clearly doing a great job.
Let’s hope it shows in the January Results !
It could be a Happy New Year ??

We received an email yesterday from SAGA offering
Private Health Insurance.
Check it out on SAGA website.
The product is Great !
We signed up today for the SAGA Health Plan Super.
With 7,000,000 on the NHS waiting list and an aging population ( many of whom are SAGA customers) this product looks like winner !
Best Wishes and Good Health @SAGA

MOON down again today and shorts are now over 4%
which probably indicates further falls !
CARD up again. The shops are packed.
CARD numbers due in January !