Member Info for Alnwick

Saga plc Market Cap in 2016 was £3,400,000,000
Today it’s £221,700,000
A fall of 91%

Hi Roxbury. I always appreciate your research and commentary. I believe the highest SAGA has ever been was £31.37 in May 2016.
Best Wishes to all.

Good info MagicFinance,
The CEO and CFO have just been granted more options which are only exercisable when SAGA price passes £6 !
Decent volume trading again today.
As the institutional presentations rollout we should start to see some significant purchases as the upside potential is …… HUGE !
We are Sailing

Hi Nicname , Thompson,
I’m currently drinking Champagne at Wimbledon !
Keep the faith in SAGA.
This company was saddled with a pile of debt and still has £500M net debt.
The Pandemic , Supply Chain , Ukraine War , Interest rises and raging inflation have and are being managed.
We’ve not had economic conditions like this since the 70’s!
SAGA has a very profitable Insurance business which stand alone makes £100M+
Cruises are coming back strongly.
New river Cruises are coming.
SAGA have the Grey Top Clients and Equity Release will be very popular as the bank of Mum , Dad and Grand Parents help out their children.
My only concern is SAGA get taken over and we only get 100% return on todays price !
Cheers ??

Hi BB,
I totally agree with your Net Debt figure of £500m
SAGA said yesterday it will make profits this year in the range of £35m - £50m
Given that Cruise booking is already strong for next year , Insurance has 83% retention and equity release could be huge I think it’s a fair assumption that next year will see profits over £150M
( Providing Ukraine war doesn’t spread!!)
The market cap of SAGA is currently £226M
Let’s be very conservative ( Not Boris !!) and apply an after tax multiple of 10 to next years profits and we are looking at £1B MC in 2024.
That’s £7 a share !!!!!

Hi Batfasted,
If someone said you can achieve a 368% return but you have to wait 5 years ….. I would snap their hand off.
SAGA will deliver a HUGE return if you have patience and allow the BOD time.
I’m buying more !!!!!

Good evening Banbury,
If it wasn’t for the short term Financial pain I find it quite amusing reading some of these posts.
I find yours very informative! Thank you.

Here’s my take on what’s happening to SAGA in the current market.

SAGA Has 140,337,271 shares in issue
RDH has 26%
Institutions have over 50%
10’s of thousands of shareholders have the rest dating back to the original float and in most cases are nursing a 90% loss !!!
The average number of shares traded per day is 363,000 That’s less than 0.025%
Most of the sellers are already 90% underwater and are probably just bailing as they had enough pain !
The market makers are marketing down the shares to build the book ready for next weeks demand.
Current Market Cap of SAGA £245m
Ludicrous!!!!!
I have continued buying this stock and remain a holder for at least 5 years and stand on my forecast.
I think next week will bring some welcome relief !
Have a good weekend SAGA investors

Hi BB ,
I’m in my air raid shelter waiting for the
Nuclear Attack!!
They say the markets preempt and are ahead of the curve. This market is MADNESS !
Saga is now my largest holding and if I had £400M+
I would launch a takeover bid.
I stand by my forecast that Saga will be £10 in 5 years time …, with one caveat .,. It doesn’t get bought by PE.
Best Wishes

Hi Orient
I don’t see SAGA moving much until the release of interims in September!
We know from the March update that insurance is performing well and cruise bookings across the industry are very strong. BOD need to resolve travels losses which they are working on.
I expect a strong return to profit at the half year and a positive statement on debt reduction.
Hang in there…. This is going to £10+ In 3-5 years

Carnival shares are moving up premarket on ;
“Carnival (CCL) surged almost 4% in premarket trading after the tour group said that the one-week period of March 28 to April 3 was the busiest week for bookings in the company’s history.”
People want to Cruise !!!

Hi Perturbed,
Earnings are income or Profits before Tax
The P/E Price / Earnings Ratio is what determines the MC. Market Capitalisation.
Share Price x Number of Shares in Issue.
If you look at the Forward earnings multiple ie
2023/24 earnings , SAGA will be on a multiple of 2 !!!!
This Stock is a Screaming BUY !!!!

Hi Banbury,
In his presentation Q&A Ewan answered the question of P&O treatment of their staff and stated that SAGA currently pay above market rates and will continue to do so.
If you have an opportunity join Investor Meet Company
and log in to SAGA presentation.
It’s well worth a listen and added to my “Exuberance!”
A few more interesting points ;
Insurance business is competitive but still expected to grow and produce a similar return next year £120M
Travel target to break even this year. £0
Cruise to make £40M per ship x2. £80M
River Cruise £1.5 - 2m per ship X2 £3
4 more river ships on order.
New cross selling via Financial Services
created 3,000 new Sales last month !! £ ?
Management won’t give a Profit Forecast but take a view on the above and the Profit before tax could be £200M+
Given the MC is currently £396 M and SP £2.31
I think I have “Rational Exuberance!”
Best Wishes

Morning Banbury …My mistake !
I was having a large glass of Tuscan Red which turned into a bottle !!!!
Best Wishes

I’m old enough to remember Jed Clampet in the Beverly Hillbillies!
Jed dug a hole in the garden and discovered Oil.
He was as thick as a whale omelette!!!!
.
I value this investor forum and we do have some very good intelligent contributors who add welcome contributions.
Let’s ignore the idiots and focus on the opportunity!
SAGA currently has a market cap of £357M
Saga insurance makes £50M+ and has 82% customer retention and it’s growing.
SAGA cruises will make £40M per Ship next year
SAGA has £730M Debt less £187M Cash
Net Debt £543M
Based on above the net profit will be £140M+
( based on fuel hedging)
The interest cover will be 7 times!
The banks will allow dividend payments to resume in 2024. I actually don’t want a dividend as I prefer debt reduction and share buy backs to improve shareholder returns.
If you apply a P/E of 10 ( post tax) the MC (Market Capitalisation )of SAGA will be £1,400,000
That equates to 3.92 x the current share price.
For those who are financially challenged….
That’s a share price of £9 !!!!
Let’s prudently Half this to £4.50 and Voila
The average broker estimate is £4.60.
Who said “ If it has webbed feet and quacks it’s probably a Duck “

Saga said it was in a "strong" liquidity position following actions taken over the last year, with its available operating cash flow rocketing 2,129% to £75.8m after cruise operations resumed, available cash totalling £186.6m, and its undrawn revolving credit facility standing at £100m.

I think the results are largely inline with previous update and show the progress the management team are making in turning round what was a sinking ship !
Insurance, the live blood of this business has performed well and has 83% customer retention.
Forward bookings for cruise are very strong with per Diem at £313.
£31m debt paid down and £187m in cash !
This ship is sailing in the right direction.
I’ve added to an already large holding and continue to believe that in 3-5 years SAGA will be £10+
Best Wishes

Good Day Saga Investors.
The recent trading update and the positive announcements on the lifting of COVID restrictions are having a positive effect on all travel stocks.
Let’s remember that 80% of SAGA is Insurance!
NUMIS have a buy on SAGA with a price target of £4-60
Credit Swiss have a buy on SAGA price target of £4-25
I have a Strong buy on SAGA and have been buying the dips ( Which have been many !)
We know Insurance is doing well and Cruise bookings are very good.Travel is coming back strongly and the Grey Tops ! Have a huge share of spending power.
SAGA is well positioned to move higher and the results on March 23rd should solidify !
Good Fortune

DÉJÀ VU
It feels like the investment clock has been turned back 16 months !!!!
Remember SAGA is 80% an Insurance business and the board have already told us the Insurance business is doing OK.
SAGA have 2 Ships and a few river boats ,bookings are strong.
( thank you BB)
SAGA is currently trading on a forward earnings multiple of 3 !!!!!!
I’m loading up…… Again.
Best Wishes

Good evening Fellow SAGA investors.
I’ve just finished reading a report from my Bankers on UK property wealth.
I think it’s very pertinent to SAGA customers as the report quotes the value of over 65’s UK property wealth at £1,256,000,000,000
£1.256Trillion !!!!!
Apologies for calling them “Grey Tops”
Let’s call them “Baby Boomers”
( Not quite over 65’s as I’m one of them)
This group have the vast majority of the UK’s wealth and this group are SAGA’s customers!
I love the new advertising campaign and I understand everyone’s frustration at the crazy low share price.
SAGA is now the largest share in my portfolio and the only one that’s now below cost . JUST !
I have absolutely no concern at all that SAGA will return exceptional value in the coming years.
We all just have to be patient investors.
Best Wishes

Good Evening Banbury,
Thank you as always …. You could be my CFO !
Best Wishes