Member Info for Alnwick

FJGOONER.... Your post made me smile !
When will the market wake up to the fact that Travel is only 20% of SAGA's business.
Oh and the 1st of SAGA's 2 ships is now sailing !
With SAGA at 420p I couldn't resist the temptation to buy more.
I now own a significant part of those Ships.
We Are Sailing !

I view the Bond issue at 5.5% as yet another good piece of business by this first class management team.
RDH has serious skin in this game and the management team have also invested their hard earned cash in SAGA.
Let’s not forget that today’s closing price of £4-39
is 29p ( Pre 15-1 consolidation)
Cruising starts next week.
Insurance is trading well.
This Saga is going to turn into a Great Recovery Story
I’m in for a Shareholder get together when we celebrate £10.
I may even buy the first round !!!

Hi RoxburyHouse,
I’m a Geordie boy too !
I now live overseas but still visit the Toon when I get the chance.
Having owned Graphic design and Digital print companies I invested in VistaPrint a few years ago and then Moonpig.
You suggested CARD earlier in the year and I took a look at their business model and OMG their gross margin is amazing !
I bought a few late February at 38P and watched them go over 90P.
Now at 60P I’ve bought more.
CARD is another 5-10 Bagger !
Thank you RoxburyHouse.
I will look out for the Toon top when we are all cruising with SAGA.
PS
We can all send a Digital CARD !!!

Good Day fellow SAGA investors.
I read your posts most days and find most of them really informative.
We all have our Cost and Exit number but before you go off and buy a new car consider the upside potential of SAGA.
80 % of our companies business is insurance and very profitable.
I highlighted on this chat room the Hastings insurance acquisition last year.
Hastings had virtually the same sales and net profit as SAGA and sold for £1.6 Billion gross.
That equates to £11-40 per SAGA share.
The Insurance business is competitive therefore discount the SAGA insurance business to £10.
Travel and Cruising has bleed cash for 18 months and interest payments have been delayed for effectively 12 months. A huge drag on the share price.
Travel is reopening soon and barring another COVID disaster those travel and cruising losses will turn into profits. A double whammy!
SAGA also have a customer base who are largely double vaccinated and are sitting on the largest proportion of the U.K. household wealth.
It may take 2 years to fully recover but the company projections for travel and cruising are forecasting profits of £60M+. On a conservative P/E of 10 (after tax) that equates to £4-28 per share
Therefore the potential share price of SAGA in 2 years is £14-28.
I have confidence in the new management team and they have significant skin in the game so I’m going to Sail with SAGA north of £15
PS
Depending on the size of your investment your choice of that new car may change !!!

RDH. PROFIT TO DATE
£39,430,000

BanburyBoy.
Your calculations are spot on.
RDH shares average cost £2-71
RDH profit at today’s price £1-07 per share
£3??9??,4??3??0??,0??0??0??
.
I’m sticking with RDH ..... Just bought @£3-78 ??
Best Wishes to all.

Banburyboy,
SWS data is updated in real time.
If you drill down further on the Institutional holdings
in Saga and then add RDH it accounts for over 80%
of issued shares.
If you look at the volume on days like today it’s largely small day traders buying and selling to make
very little !
I’m in this for a few years.....
Best Wishes to all.

The latest list of shareholders shows RDH and 24 Institutions now hold 71% of SAGA.
Setanta are gone !
As are Elliott and Artemis.
Data from SimplyWall St.
SWS also say SAGA is currently undervalued by 22%
Fair value £5+ and more to come !
Top 25 Shareholders
26.31%
Roger De Haan 36,855,555 £147.2m 0% no data
5.36%
Saga Plc., Employee Stock Ownership Plan 7,509,376 £30.0m 16.44% no data
3.71%
UBS Asset Management 5,197,333 £20.8m 268.64% no data
3.16%
Ignis Investment Services Limited 4,425,541 £17.7m 6891.82% 0.08%
3%
GWL Investment Management Ltd. 4,200,594 £16.8m -56.87% 0.04%
2.49%
HBOS Investment Fund Managers Limited 3,486,745 £13.9m 68.3% 0.14%
2.21%
BlackRock, Inc. 3,091,803 £12.3m 112.13% no data
2.2%
Pictet Asset Management Limited 3,088,270 £12.3m 0.01% 0.01%
2.06%
A J Bell Holdings Limited, Asset Management Arm 2,890,274 £11.5m 162.07% 0.16%
2.01%
Royal London Asset Management Limited 2,815,135 £11.2m 73.2% 0.02%
1.93%
Barclays Bank PLC, Wealth and Investment Management Division 2,697,691 £10.8m 67.52% 0.13%
1.84%
Standard Life Aberdeen plc 2,583,931 £10.3m -38.39% 0.01%
1.62%
HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited 2,271,172 £9.1m 27.38% 0.01%
1.5%
Dimensional Fund Advisors L.P. 2,108,183 £8.4m 241.07% no data
1.5%
Legal & General Investment Management Limited 2,098,044 £8.4m 21.86% no data
1.4%
N.F.U. Mutual Unit Managers Limited 1,967,622 £7.9m 75.35% 0.18%
1.4%
Majedie Asset Management Limited 1,962,014 £7.8m -44.5% 0.1%
1.35%
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc., Asset Management Arm 1,894,218 £7.6m 419.43% 0.33%
1.08%
Equiniti Group Limited, Asset Management Arm 1,516,121 £6.1m 81% 0.1%
1%
Schroder Investment Management Limited 1,406,405 £5.6m 3.91% no data
0.91%
Aviva Investors Global Services Limited 1,279,142 £5.1m

Congratulations RoxburyHouse,
That’s 20 times my investment !
Looking forward to ****tails at the Captains table.

Hi Banburyboy,
I enjoy your posts and agree with most of what you write.
I may be wrong but I think I remember you agreeing the Insurance business was worth £1B+
The two new ships are worth at least as much as the debt !
Upscale vessels take years to design build and these
Ships are certainly upscale.
Check out what Regent Cruises are paying for similar sized new build.
Forget trading travel and sell it.
( I not advocating this just a value play)
The break up value of SAGA is then an insurance business making £140m with a customer base that’s over 55 and has 80% of the UK’s cash.
SAGA Financial !
Now tell me what the share price can be ?

As has been posted on this site many times SAGA is 80% an Insurance company.
Direct Line issued a trading update yesterday www.direct line group.co.uk
Last years profit before tax £451.4M. Current Market Cap £4B
SAGA Insurance PBT 2020 £140M SAGA Market Cap £538M
The Debt and losses from Travel have severely effected the share price.
SAGA Insurance is worth £1.2B based on Direct Line P/E and could be as high as £1.6B based on the acquisition price of Hastings last year.
Add SAGA travel when travel reopens in June ! Which will turn a £5-6M loss per month into profit of £50-60M in 2022-23.
SAGA could make £200M+ Pre tax in 2023
Based on above I’m raising my price target to £15 by January 2024
That’s a 390% increase.
I’m a buyer !!!

Good Morning Accipiter.
You make a very good statement but let’s not forget;
SAGA is 80% an hugely profitable insurance company making £140M +
SAGA travel customers are over 60 and will have had both Vaccinations therefore Euro travel will be almost guaranteed under EU proposals.
When SAGA travel revenues return it reverses the £6M PER MONTH Loss and within 2 years will add £50-60M annualized profit !
This is now my largest holding and a Screaming Buy !!!

The Smart money are beginning to nibble !
£450,000 buy at £3-84 after the close.

Let’s not forget SAGA is 80% an Insurance company and a very profitable one.
Hastings , a very similar size and profit to SAGA was acquired last year for £1,500,000,000
Let’s be prudent and value SAGA Insurance at £1B
Travel has been and still is losing around £6M a month !
When those ships sail and we all start to vacation again that £6M loss turns into £££
I don’t expect a full year of Travel profits until 2023
however that represents £60M added to the existing
Insurance profit of £140M.
That’s £200m ( with no growth in insurance) for 2023.
Take off Corp tax and apply a multiple of 10
That equates to £1.64B Market Cap
SAGA have 140M shares.
My target price for late 2023 £11-70
That’s 328% upside !!!
My advice is Free as I’m going to enjoy the upside with all of you.
Safe Driving and Happy Sailing the SAGA continues!

This is a really informative group and I have to say a Big thank you to Roxburyhouse.
I bought CARD at 38p based on your comments on this site and my research !!!
CARD closed today at 75p
HAPPY EASTER CARD ??
Next week is going to be HAPPY SAGA ????
Have a Happy Easter Weekend everyone.

The Inaugural Cruise is going to the “Toon”
You must learn the local anthem

I went to Blaydon Races
Twas on the ninth of June
Eighteen Hundred and Sixty Two
On a summer's afternoon
I took the bus from Balmbras
And she was heavy laden
Away we went along Collingwood Street
That's on the Road to Blaydon

Oh me lads, you should've seen us gannin
Passing the folks along the road
And all of them were starin'
All the lads and lasses there
They all had smilin' faces
Gannin along the Scotswood Road
To see the Blaydon Races

Sting is a Geordie lad and has a Great song
“Fields of Gold”

I think that’s SAGA !

Have a Good Weekend

I’ve been a shareholder in SAGA for 12 months so I’ve experienced the pain and I’m now enjoying the gain!
I added aggressively to my holdings when the share price fell below 10p (old money) as this was ridiculously oversold.
SAGA is now my largest holding and I have no desire to sell.
When those beautiful ships start carrying paying passengers the share price will SAIL AWAY !
I think a realistic target price in 24 months is £10+
Best Wishes

Good Evening Banburyboy , Pokerchips , Roxbury House and fellow SAGA investors.
I've been acquiring a stake in SAGA for 9 months and suffice to say it is now my largest holding.
I'm still just underwater !!
I read with interest your postings on this site and find the level of detail very useful.
I won't thank you all just yet but should SAGA rise to the level I believe it could achieve in the next 3-5 years , we may all be sitting in our suites on board one of the magnificent new ships.
Just for interest my personal calculations (subject to Covid Vaccine roll-out)
End of 2021 440
End of 2022 750
End of 2023 ...... See you in the Champagne Bar !!
Best Wishes to you all.

There seems to be some confusion in the discussion group on SAGA historical share price.
What you have to remember is we had a 1-15 dilution in the number of shares issued after the fund raising.
Therefore to compare the current share price to historical you have to divide by 15 ( excluding the additional shares from fund raising)
Fridays close 281p = 18.7p
Historical high in September 2016 was 205p that equates to 3075p today.
.
We know the Insurance business is doing well , so when those Cruise ships start sailing in May 2021 ( provided the vaccine works !) The share price could return to historic highs.
That represents an 11 fold increase in the current share price.
SAGA is one of the most under valued shares on the London markets.
Screaming Strong Buy !!!

Setanta had 11% of the company before Sir Roger invested and the stock split 15-1.
Looks like Setanta bought Most of their entitlement of 12p options and have sold Approximately 10% of their holdings.
Remember the Share price was up 300% intraday last week.
They have been shareholders for some time and why would they wish to sell any more!
SAGA is my strongest BUY !

Todays agreed bid of £7.2B for RSA has had a large effect today.
Remember Hastings deal. Now RSA.
SAGA Insurance is 80% of the company.
Based on values above SAGA Insurance is worth £1.5B !!!
The Cruise/Travel business is Debt !
Remove debt and SAGA is worth £1.1B today
When Cruises start they add £40M net profit.
£400M value.
The current MC is £400M based on £2.88 PS
.
Before Cruises restart this SP could easily double.
Once Cruises are operational and making £40M
this SP is going to £10+