Member Info for Alnwick

Good evening fellow SAGA investors.
When RDH father named his company SAGA he had amazing vision !
The last 5 years have been a right SAGA !!!!
5 years ago SAGA share price was £20 (pre 15-1 and including rights) with a market cap of over £2Billion !
Today the shares are languishing at £3 and the market cap is £422M
The wealth destruction has been Horrendous.
The previous management team , a Joke
Add in COVID a disaster !!!
SAGA are now in a much better place.
RDH has invested £120Million and is the Chairman of a very good management team who are turning round the Ship !
The ships are sailing and forward bookings are strong.
(Thank you Banburyboy for your recent update. )
Let’s be very prudent and forecast £40Million profit for Cruise next year.
The Insurance business made £80Million last year.
Direct Line reported higher claims due to more expensive second hand cars.
When in your lifetime have you ever heard of appreciating second hand cars ?
Unless of course you have a collection of Vintage Aston Martins !
SAGA insurance may take a slight hit and the industry is competitive , but the previous CEO actually did one good thing. A fixed price 3 year agreement so more than half of SAGA customers are locked in.
SAGA also now have a very experienced guy running insurance.
Let’s be prudent again and assume insurance doesn’t grow and suffers 10% attrition ( highly unlikely)
£72Million profit for Insurance next year.
Discount all of the internal restructuring, cost savings , new branding , advertising and the Ultra prudent forecast for next year is £112Million PBIT
Take off Corp Tax ( excluding allowances for losses)
£84Million
Apply a multiple of 10 ( very modest )
MC = £840
Share price £6
The current share price is CRAZY Cheap
RDH may take SAGA private or another predator may appear in the next 12 months but either way there will be a large premium.
I’ve quoted on this site a number of times where I believe this stock will go and I reiterate £10 + in 3-5 years.
Patience is a Virtue and can be a SAGA !

Happy Fireworks SAGA Investors
If you’re waiting for this to go to £2-50 a share I suggest you buy before it gets to £3-50 !
Be careful out tonight.
PS Pokerchips
We have very similar taste in stocks
IAG , RR, Do you also have Easy and TUI ?

Good day fellow SAGA investors.
I think this new Brand Advertising is Great !
Experienced , Vintage , Classy and Sophisticated.
Sounds rather Grand.
The last few weeks have been a terrific opportunity to stock up on SAGA.
The January trading update will be really interesting and should stimulate investor interest!
At the current price of £3.21 SAGA is crazy cheap !
I’m of for an Old Fashioned ….Cheers.

Hi Banbury,
I believe nominees are excluded.
SAGA still have Thousands of historical shareholders who are invested at cost per share North of £30 ! ie £2 pre consolidation.
Many are understandably “Jumping Ship’’
My brokers attended a Zoom presentation by SAGA to institutional investors yesterday.
Their feed back to me was supportive of my views.
Good CEO and CFO who are executing a progressive strategy that will deliver significant upside to shareholders over the next 3-5 years.
This is a long term play !!

Good Evening fellow SAGA investors,
Here is the up to date list of major shareholders.
Excluding RDH.... and Myself ! I can't stop myself buying SAGA
SAGA is just crazy cheap !!!
Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers Ltd. 5,604,000 4.00%
Standard Life Investments Ltd. 5,381,439 3.84%
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management Ltd. 5,365,000 3.83%
Setanta Asset Management Ltd. 4,200,594 3.00%
Chelverton Asset Management Ltd. 2,113,082 1.51%
HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Ltd. 1,884,000 1.34%
BlackRock Fund Advisors 1,528,000 1.09%
NFU Mutual Investment Services Ltd. 1,473,096 1.05%
Cavendish Asset Management Ltd. 1,238,896 0.88%
The Vanguard Group, Inc. 1,231,306 0.88%
Holdings
Name Equities % Valuation
NILAR INTERNATIONAL AB (NILAR) 1,152,216 2.53% 6,207,472 USD
.
We have had quite a few major institutions significantly reduce their holdings or bailout out in the last 6-9 months;
Elliott
Artemis
Setanta
Aberdeen
Sales from those 4 account for over 20% of the total shares in issue.
PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE !
Best Wishes

Nice piece in the Travel section of Sunday Times today.
Dozens of passengers opted to stay onboard and signed up for the next cruise!
Service approval levels are very good.
“Saga has clearly got cruising during Covid down to a fine art. From the moment a sleek, black Mercedes arrives at my house to whisk me to the port, I feel looked after. All passengers, already fully vaccinated, are tested at a drive-through tent in Tilbury. Then it’s up the gangway into a serene world of soothing ****tail melodies and glasses of rosé in the sunshine.”
“Dun-coloured hills roll away under vast skies, the wind-blown, treeless landscape is fringed by creamy beaches. Seals bask on the sand, occasionally washed over by turquoise shallows. We’re closer culturally to Scandinavia here than Scotland, in the place names and the jaunty red timber-framed houses that remind me of Norway. I’m amazed to discover that we’re on the same latitude as St Petersburg, fortunately spared the bitter winters by the warming presence of the Gulf Stream”

We are Sailing !

I concur with fellow board members views on the investor presentation.
SAGA CEO & CFO provide an excellent overview of the interim results and give a cautiously positive indication of the future prospects.
I like under promise - over deliver !!
Barring another Covid attack SAGA will be sailing next year.
I’m buying more SAGA on Monday.
Watch the presentation.
Happy Weekend.

I think today’s interim’s are exactly what was expected.
The management team are carrying out their strategy well.
The turnaround in Profit and cash is very positive and a good reduction in debt.
Profit potential of £40M Per Ship is reiterated.
Solid performance from Insurance producing £80M NP.
The dog is still travel which should recover as more people will be traveling next year.
Future profit potential in the range of £160- £200M
Today’s share price £3.53 is a Market Cap of £494M
THAT WOULD BE A P/E OF 2.5 pre tax.
.
Patience Patience…
Reiterate my view that SAGA will be £15 in 3-5 years

That’s how you become a Millionaire !
I know a guy who bought Apple at $12 and Sold
at $35. Virtually trebled his investment.
However ..... If he’d held his nerve and rode out the weakness , and Apple has had those days his shares today would be over $1,200 !!!!!
( after 3 stock splits)
SAGA in my opinion will deliver 400% + over 5 years.
Who wants to be a Millionaire????
Good Luck

Sell in May and go away , Return on Labor Day!
That’s the 1st Monday in September.
So the saying goes.
If you’d sold Saga In June at £4-60 and bought today at £3-48..... Well done !
We have had tiny volumes all summer and no updates from the company.
We have also had a number of institutions selling every time SAGA rises.
The net effect is a crazy low share price.
Today’s price of £3-48 is 23p pre 15-1 consolidation and SAGA market Cap is £487M
I’m not in RDH position but SAGA is now my largest holding and I remain confident that this share will be £15 in 5 years.
September 22nd is going to be very interesting !!!
Best Wishes

Morning Banbury,
The only risk I see ( like you is the travel business)
Insurance is a cash cow and cruise will become a cash cow.
The demographic of SAGA customers , the Grey pound , will spend ,spend,spend on cruises next year and future years. The pandemic has focused people’s minds on life is short !
I’m in SAGA for the long term and I stand by my £15 target.
The threat to my £15 target is a takeover in the next 12 months.
That would probably be at double today’s share price.
Don’t see a big downside in the current price.
Best wishes.

Hi Banbury,
SAGA’s market cap is £515M
Direct Line market cap £4.21M
Direct Line income and profits are 4 times SAGA
Direct Line market cap is 8 times SAGA.
SAGA will be rerated after the interim statement confirms Insurance profits and Cruise forward bookings.
NUMIS have already reiterated their buy recommendation at £5-85
Best Wishes

This bodes well for SAGA Insurance results on September 22nd.
As I posted yesterday if Travel and Cruise just breaks even in the next 12 months SAGA will be SAILING higher !!

Hi Banbury, Thank you.
That’s a great piece of work.
I believe if travel and cruises just break even it’s a positive turnaround of £7M a month !
SAGA insurance as a stand alone business is worth north of £1B.
That’s double the current market cap !
Sort out travel and fill those ships and my forecast for the SAGA SP in 3-5 years remains £15.
Best Wishes

The date for Interim results is 22nd September.
Insurance is trading inline with forecast and claims are very low.
Positive news on Cruise for 2022/23 and a reduction in travel losses will send the SP Sailing !

Good Morning fellow Saga investors,
If like myself you accumulated more SAGA in the SALE you will delighted with the news that international cruises can SAIL.
Those travel losses will soon turn into profits and send SAGA shares SAILING !!!
Best Wishes

The dictionary definition of SAGA
carry-on, to-do, performance , rigmarole, soap opera, chain of events,epic, story, tale, legend, adventure, romance, narrative, chronicle, yarn.
As SAGA Shareholders we have all experienced many of the dictionary definitions of SAGA.
Pick whichever suits your experiences to date but focus on one…..Performance !
September’s update will be interesting but “Carry-On” with the “Adventure” and the “Chain of Events” will produce an “Story” with “Epic Performance”
I stand by my share price forecast of £15 in 3 to 5 years.
Best Wishes with your SAGA

How fitting…. SAGA start sailing and Admiral announce a huge increase in profits !
Admiral Insurance told shareholders yesterday that’s it’s profits will be significantly higher.
Admiral Insurance made £286M in the first 6 months last year and is now forecasting £450M -£500M
due to a large fall in motor claims.
SAGA Insurance must be enjoying exactly the same profit bounce!
We could get a very positive profit surprise at the half year in September.
Follow the Admiral !!

Hi Millionaire,
Interesting forecast as I also see SAGA at £15 in
3-5 years.
The stars truly are aligning for SAGA.
Tonight after the close we have seen yet another group of large purchases.
Let’s not forget that today’s close £3-80 is 25p before the 15-1 consolidation.
£15 is therefore £1.
Look at the historical price !
This Summer Sale will turn into Summer Sailing and the travel losses will become travel profits.
Happy Sailing

Good Evening fellow SAGA Investors,
SAGA SALE won’t last much longer.
Don’t forget fundamentals
80 % of SAGA is Insurance and it’s doing well.
Sailings have begun.
The SALE won’t last !
England Will Win tomorrow
Have a Great Weekend
We are SALING