Member Info for Alnwick

Good post Shearclass,
As I said in my last post CARD is winning in the Greetings CARD space.
MOON is now on a P/E of 14.6
CARD P/E is 10.5
Lots of further upside for CARD

Hi Lovelace,
MOON is a totally different business model.
Largely digital printing business with some cute software that my prior company Co developed.
A Christmas card @ MOON will cost from £3.89 ++
MOON is on a PE of 20.
A Christmas card @ CARD starts at 2 for 99p
CARD is on a PE of 8
In these difficult economic times people are queuing at the tills in Card Factory stores.
Another point of note is the shorts on MOON are now 3% and likely to increase !
My cash is strongly in CARD
Best Wishes

Good evening fellow SAGA investors.
If you bought into SAGA in the last 4 weeks you are sitting on a nice profit.
Performance
1 day 2.99%
5 days 13.93%
1 week 13.93%
Current month 16.18%
1 month 26.33%
3 months -44.89%
6 months -53.84%
Current year -64.98%
5 years -97.32%
Sadly many of the SAGA shareholders have been invested for many years and as demonstrated above the losses are Awful !!!
I have been buying all the way down and this is now my largest holding by some margin.
January will be very interesting!
Best Wishes

Covering Shorts can be very expensive.
Let’s hope so !!!!

A third Non-Executive director has bought into SAGA in the last 2 weeks.
These people are reading the Monthly Management Accounts !
It’s like reading the Book before you pay to watch the Movie.
Let’s hope it wasn’t Titanic !!!!
Keep the faith our Ship is sailing.

Some highlights from the interim financial statement
6 months July 22
Insurance made £51.9m
Cruise +Travel lost (£12.9m)
Other businesses and central costs (£26.9m)
At September interims we were told Insurance was “Challenging!” Let’s half the annual profit = £51.9m
We were told Cruise and travel bookings were “Doing well “ Cruise should produce £30-40m per ship
Let’s be super prudent and use £20m per ship= £40m
Add a collective profit from everything else = £10m
Take off Central costs of £27m
That gives a very cautious Profit forecast for the next 12 months of £64.9m
The current MC is £110M
Share price 78.5p
I’m still feeling bullish !!!

Hi Banbury,
SAGA by nature and SAGA by name !
I’m still heavily invested and have been £ cost averaging all the way down to 78p.
I believe 72 to be the bottom ( unless the markets Crash this week !)
From being up Big Time 12 months ago I’m now down substantially but as I said in my last post I believe this will come back and from these levels will give a substantial return !
Best Wishes

Good evening SAGA shareholders.
Our shares are up today and may have found the bottom at 72p earlier this week.
I certainly hope so as I’ve been adding to my holdings in Travel stocks and SAGA is now my largest !!
The markets are just crazy at present and certain sectors are very reminiscent of the performance in Technology crash 2000 and Financial crash 2008.
If you had cash and courage to invest in Bombed out tech stocks in 2000 and property stocks in 2008-9 you would have had an enormous smile on you face 5 years later !
I don’t have a crystal ball but my research and gut instinct tell me ;
SAGA isn’t going bust and I don’t think it will need another cash call. They have £180m in cash and are generating profits which were confirmed at £25-£30m
at year end.
The debt is considerable at £750m+ but the interest was pegged last year. Good move !
The debt is being paid down and the £150m payment next year can be made from cash.
Cruise should make £30-40M per ship in the coming years.
The debt is largely secured against 2 new cruise ships.
Which by the way ,due to inflation in Steel , fixtures and fittings are worth considerably more than cost !
Insurance business is incredibly competitive and margins are under pressure but SAGA retention is strong.
Add in Equity release , new insurance products , new river ships and the sum of all parts should generate good profits in the coming years .
The current market cap is £112M SP 78.5p
Two insiders have recently bought.
One Non exec invested £200,000
This guy sees the monthly management accounts and he’s a bright guy. Look at his CV
Best Wishes and Good Luck

I never did like the Muppets and like even less individuals you use online platforms to call people muppets !
I had a spare 5 minutes so I decided to read some posts by Diandto. Take a look !!!!
I prefer to follow the lead of a Non Executive director who has visibility of SAGA Monthly Management Accounts and invests £200,000 into the Company.
Best Wishes to my fellow SAGA Shareholders

Welcome back Dofus,
We have all missed your “Inside Knowledge “ posts.
I like virtually every other shareholder am under water.
Thankfully I’m not drowning and I share your view that nor is SAGA.
RDH and the relatively new management team have had a torrid few years and great credit to them in coming throw it and keeping the Ship afloat !
I like the strategy and the fact that SAGA customers are the Grey Tops ( I’m one) generally don’t have a mortgage , will be looking at equity release to possibly help their families through these difficult times and properly still have sufficient cash to buy a cruise and insure their cars.
If the directors hadn’t taken an impairment on the goodwill of the insurance business the share price would almost certainly have risen. That charge doesn’t effect cash and may be overly prudent but has no effect on the day to day running of the company.
SAGA have £180M cash and a £50M undrawn RCF.
The business is making profits paying down debts and will recover in value.
This is going to take longer than I had anticipated but we can’t blame the current management team for ;
The pile of debt.
COVID 19
Putins War
Inflation
Crazy Chancellor
Otherwise we would all be SAILING !
Best wishes to all.

Great post Roxbury.
SAGA Market Cap is similar to current CASH !!
Like you I have been buying , buying, buying
Latest Broker forecast is interesting;
"The main development from the AGM statement was the expectation that motor/ home broking margins will be proactively reduced from £73/policy currently to £60/policy next year. Saga is confident this action will address the -9% decline in motor/home policy sales seen so far this year, and drive good sales growth next year. The margin change leads to a reduction in our Jan 24 operating PBT forecast from £73m to £58m. There is a lesser reduction for Jan 25, as we expect stronger growth in policy sales to partially offset the negative margin impact. Our operating profit forecast for the current year falls by £10m to £40m (guidance is £35-50m) due to external factors impacting cruise earnings in H1 (modest Covid disruption and revenue weakness for Black Sea and Baltic sailings). Based on these reduced earnings estimates we forecast aggregate three-year cash generation of £181m (pre debt repayments), equating to 72% of current equity value, which underpins our TP of 305p (down from 405p previously due the forecasts changes). Saga shares remain highly sensitive to changes in EBITDA due to equity value currently being just 26% of EV. However, we think there is substantial equity value upside potential from deleveraging if cash flow forecasts are achieved."
SCREAMING BUY !!!

Take a look at the trading statement below and add to it the fact that the company also stated they have £180M in Cash !
I bought more SAGA last week and it was difficult to get 50,000 shares. There’s very little stock available.
Look at todays trades;
144,200 traded today and most were buys !
The Market Cap of SAGA is currently £214M
They have at least £180M in cash.
Next Tuesday is going to be very interesting!!!

My London brokers have re-worked the financials taking into account the economic uncertainties!
(SAGA.L) is rated BUY by our analysts. Recent research snippet: "The main development from the AGM statement was the expectation that motor/ home broking margins will be proactively reduced from £73/policy currently to £60/policy next year. Saga is confident this action will address the -9% decline in motor/home policy sales seen so far this year, and drive good sales growth next year. The margin change leads to a reduction in our Jan 24 operating PBT forecast from £73m to £58m. There is a lesser reduction for Jan 25, as we expect stronger growth in policy sales to partially offset the negative margin impact. Our operating profit forecast for the current year falls by £10m to £40m (guidance is £35-50m) due to external factors impacting cruise earnings in H1 (modest Covid disruption and revenue weakness for Black Sea and Baltic sailings). Based on these reduced earnings estimates we forecast aggregate three-year cash generation of £181m (pre debt repayments), equating to 72% of current equity value, which underpins our TP of 305p (down from 405p previously due the forecasts changes). Saga shares remain highly sensitive to changes in EBITDA due to equity value currently being just 26% of EV. However, we think there is substantial equity value upside potential from deleveraging if cash flow forecasts are achieved."
This equates to a 100% potential upside. BUY.

Hi Rox,
I hope you’re well.
I’m breaking all of my investment rules and I’ve bought again today and if it falls tomorrow I will buy again.
As you know the current price is less than 10p pre consolidation.
The current share price is “NUTS”
Best Wishes to all.
PS
Christmas is coming !

Good Evening SAGA Investors,
I said in my post last week that having Roxbury buy back into SAGA at £1.56 was a lucky charm !
SAGA is currently £1.78 up 11% in 4 days.
Great to have you back Roxbury.
Go and buy some more !!!!
Best Wishes

Hi Roxbury.
I knew you were a lucky charm !
Your purchase at £156.9445 was inspired and you’re already up 6p which is serious cash on 1,000,000 !
There are so many positives for SAGA in the coming years. Maybe one of the biggest is the demographic of their customer base. The Grey Top’s !
Most over 60’s are empty nesters, have paid off their mortgage and have a nice pension fund.
Perfect clients for a cruise.
Experienced clients for low claims on Motor Insurance
Perfect prospects for a Equity Release.
I’m in no way belittling the hardship many people are feeling with huge increases to energy , rising interest rates and raging inflation !
What I’m saying is SAGA may just have better opportunities in difficult times.
Best Wishes to all.

At last …. A believer !
Diandto reduces his short and looks like he bought 125,000 shares.
Makes up for the loss today on IAG
Have a great weekend SAGA investors
Go the England Lasses !

Welcome back Roxbury.
You’re SAGA’s lucky charm !
I’m still invested in CARD and added to my position a few weeks ago.
Great post on SAGA history and I share ( pardon the pun) your optimism on the future prospects.
It will take a few years !!
Best Wishes

Good post Moolacoaster.
290,000 shares traded so far today which is 0.002%
of the total shares in issue and SAGA is down over 5%
The market makers are shaking the tree !
Many historical holders who have held this share since flotation have seen a destruction in value and are dumping what they perceive to be a Dog !
This is an Old Dog which is learning to walk again after having multiple surgeries , taking on too much debt and suffering from COVID !
The good news the Old Dog can now walk and has recovered from COVID.
SAGA have recapitalised and have £180M+ in the bank.
They are not going bust !
As a rather famous investor once said ;
“Buy when there’s blood in the streets”
Warren has done quite well with this theory and you can too.
Just hold your nerve .
Pound cost average.
Buy the Dips.
And we will all be Sailing !
Hopefully not to Crimea !!!!!

SAGA currently only have 4 Ships.
2 Brand new Cruise Ships
2 New River Cruise Ships
and have 4 further River Cruise Ships under construction.
At full capacity the Cruise ships make £25m each per year.
At full capacity the River ships make £2m each per year
The CEO told us a few weeks ago that bookings where ahead of expectations and next years capacity was selling well.
We know the other side of SAGA is Insurance and the CEO told us the margins are under pressure.
Direct Line and Sabre have confirmed in the last few days and they have increased their prices by 9%
The Insurance business pre Pandemic made £120m
Be really prudent and cut it 20%. Leaves £96M profit
Apply the same prudent approach to Cruising.
Leaves £43M profit
SAGA Travel makes £0
The new Equity Release product is being well received
but let’s again be prudent and it Makes £0
Add together prudent forecast and SAGA should make £139M profit next year.
Today the share price is £1-57
The market Cap is £221M
The forecast forward earnings after tax multiple is currently less than 2 … TWO TIMES PROFITS !!!
I’ve been very fortunate to spot a few 10+ Baggers in my business career and unless I’m missing something Huge , SAGA is going to be another.
You just need time and patience and SAGA CEO’s own forecast of £6 per share within 5 years will be more than achievable.
PS. I also think Newcastle will win the Premier league in 5 years !!!!