Member Info for Alnwick

If you subscribe to the SAGA Magazine you will have read Euan Sutherland’s regular introductory piece for May. If not subscribe it’s a good read.

The GOOD NEWS ( We need some!) in his piece is that both Travel & Cruise are having the busiest 2024 seasonal bookings in SAGA History.

I guess 2023 is pretty good too.

Let’s hope we get a positive statement at the upcoming AGM. At the current share price anything positive will be well received!

Best Wishes

Markets are most peculiar at present.

CARD are trading on a PE of 7.2

MOON are trading on a PE of 22

Go figure that !

I’ve picked up more CARD

Best Wishes

Hi Stach, Thank you.

I share your enthusiasm for CARD and given a raging bull market this would be significantly higher.

Sadly we don't !

What I see across the markets is a lot of short term traders who are taking profits or trying to control losses and good luck to them.

I like to play the longer game on companies I've researched and see good long term capital appreciation and future dividends.

CARD is one of those companies.

Good management team delivering on a sound Sales and Marketing Strategy , reducing Debt , increasing Sales and Profits

globalising the Brand and investing in the existing branch network.

Best Wishes

MOON is now the 3rd Highest Shorted Stock in the UK Markets.

As I said in a previous post I see more upside value in CARD and the markets seem to agree.

Best Wishes

What’s not to like about these figures;
Sales
FY 22. FY 23
£364.4 m. £463.4m + 27.1%
Profit before tax
£11.1m £52.4m. +368.5%
Basic EPS. 12.9p
Happy Weekend Card Factory Shareholders

Carnival reported strong cruise bookings and now
Norwegian Cruise Line has upgraded its profit outlook after beating earnings expectations in its first quarter as travel demand remains strong amid higher prices.
The cruise operator forecast full-year adjusted earnings of 75 cents a share, compared with its previous forecast of 70 cents a share.
The rosier outlook came after the Miami-based company said travel demand remained strong and advance ticket sales were up 60 per cent from the first quarter of 2019 — before the pandemic struck — despite higher prices.
Most travel companies are reporting high demand and higher prices.
At the upcoming SAGA AGM there must finally be some good news !!

The revised forecast of;
463M Revenue
112M Ebitda
52M Net before tax
Should get CARD rerated by house broker and the few others that follow.
Currently CARD is on a PE of 16 times profits after tax.
52M pre tax equates 40M post tax and 16 times = 640M Market Cap
60% Higher than todays closing price.
This could fly !!!!!

Thank you 42trader.
Very Good piece by ****neyrebel.substack.com
Must read for CARD investors.
Best Wishes

Hi Banbury,
Thank you , I value your input.
My time horizon was 3-5 years …. 3 years ago !!
It’s now 3-5 years !!!
Best Wishes

Good Evening fellow SAGA Investors,
I'm sure like me you were dissapointed with the reaction to SAGA results.
Euan and James are not the most inspiring or uplifting individuals but they are very prudent accountants and I think we can take some comfort from that and we have seen a few wins from their actions , particularly on the bank interest and bond debt rates.
If you look again at the results there was a number of positives !
Revenue was up 54%
N. Profit was 21.5M ( Euan and James told the market in January there would be a 269M Insurance Goodwill Impairment)
Debt reduced to 711.7M and Net cash improved to 157.5 M .Therefore net Debt is 554.2M
The 2 Cruise Ships are worth considerably more than the debt.
Ocean Cruise bookings for 23/24 are strong with reiteration of 40M EBITDA per ship.
River Cruise is up 23% from 2022 and forecast is very positive.
Travel bookings are up 1,000%
Insurance has a 84% retention rate with 1,700,000 policies.
Interestingly the market appears to think the worst is over in the motor insurance sector and both Direct Line and Admiral rose by over 10% last week.
SAGA has a huge database of 10,000,000 over 55's
SAGA Money has broken into profit with a forecast of 2M profit in 2023 and huge potential to cross sell into the 10,000,000 database.
So why is the shareprice 125p and market cap 175.4M !!!!!
I can only think that the market looks nervously at the Debt and maybe Euan and James need to be a little more upbeat !
Best Wishes

My Glass is still half Full !
Revenue up 54%
£21.5M profit
Debt Reduced
Huge forward bookings in Cruise and River Cruise
Travel finally forecasting a profit
Insurance in-line with last year
Customer retention in Car and Home insurance 83.8%
Saga Money breaks into profit. £2.3M
I’m joining the call.
Best Wishes

Saga confident as it swings back to underlying profit
Over-50s specialist product and service provider Saga reported revenue of £581.1m in its preliminary results on Tuesday - a 54% increase year-on-year.

The London-listed company's underlying profit before tax for the 12 months ended 31 January totalled £21.5m, swinging from an underlying loss before tax of £6.7m in the 2022 financial year.

However, Saga reported a loss before tax of £254.3m, widening from £23.5m a year earlier.

Saga's available operating cash flow for the year was £54.9m, down 28%, while net debt narrowed by 2% to £711.7m.

The firm's leverage ratio improved to 7.5x from 11.7x in 2022.

Good article in todays Sunday Times on Travel Insurance for over 70’s.
2. Saga
Buy a holiday from this over-fifties specialist and travel insurance is included, with cover for more than 400 medical conditions. Its single-trip and annual policies have no upper age limit, there is cancellation cover up to £10,000 and you can call the Saga GP helpline for advice any time while you’re on holiday (saga.co.uk).
.
We bought SAGA Travel Insurance in January.
Excellent cover and competitive price.

Good afternoon Banburyboy, We have all missed your informative posts.
I’m still a (Wounded) Bull !
I’m naturally a glass is half full person and SAGA has been trying my patience, particularly in the last 12 months. Tuesday is going to be really interesting and hopefully in a positive way.
Cruise and Travel must be doing well.
The whole Travel industry is booming.
Insurance sector is realigning its pricing and we may get a positive surprise.
The rest of the “New Products” will take a few years to start making material profits.
I’m looking for the first BEAT in 5 years and my guesstimate is;
£35m profit 2022
Record forward bookings in Cruise
Return to profit in travel in 2023/24
Forecast for 2023 £50-60M
Have a good weekend.

Yet another travel company have reported record bookings.
Carnival reported Q1 2023 has been the best quarter for bookings they have ever had !
Travel is Booming…..

Interest post Checkin,
I know it’s very difficult to put a positive spin on SAGA after many years of Wealth Destruction but most of the current management team have only been in place for 4 years and have had to navigate through a series of Nightmare business situations;
Pandemic , Inflation , War , to name but three !
I’m still bottom fishing SAGA and my average cost continues to fall. Sadly as does the share price !!!
I don’t expect any surprises on April 4th as the company have reiterated their profit guidance
of £20-25m on 3 separate occasions.
What I do expect is some positive comments on the pipe line for Cruises and travel.
You may have seen the latest tour of Africa in January 2024.
21 days on a private jet visiting 8 African countries.
All in for £39,999 per person.
If the share price rises sufficiently after the results I may book it.
Best Wishes

I bought SAGA travel insurance and SAGA private health insurance in January.
Both are very good policies and give great cover.
The price of SAGA private healthcare was actually the cheapest too.
I am a Grey Top !!

Karl , I absolutely agree with you and I’ve been shouting the “Grey Tops” have the cash and are spending it for 2 years on this site.
Meanwhile SAGA shares have tanked!
I’ve had 3 flights to USA , Spain and Portugal in the last 3 months and every flight was full of “Grey Tops”
We shall soon find out how much they are spending with SAGA !
Best Wishes

Hi Sum , The insurance sector was down 12.1% last week. Sadly SAGA was down 20%.
We don’t have many Bulls on this site and I know I’m waiting with “Bated Breath” for the results next month.
What we do know is SAGA board have reiterated 3 times that profits will be in the £20-25m range.
The insurance business will have had a difficult period but travel and cruise must be doing well.
Travel everywhere is booming !
SAGA closed at £1-24p on Friday ( that’s 8p before the 15-1 consolidation) and Market cap is £192M
I think it’s crazy cheap ….. Time will tell !
Best Wishes

Who would be a SAGA Shareholder!!
If you’re reading this you probably are and I guess like me you’re under water ! ( Pardon the Pun)
The last 3 years have been Wealth destruction and not just for SAGA.
PANDEMIC , POLITICS, UKRAINIAN WAR , INFLATION , FUEL CRISIS, PLUNGING POUND.
To name just a few factors that effect markets.
I’m still a Bull on SAGA , though my timelines on share performance have extended and my views are echoed by a number of Brokers and Institutional buyers.
Here is the latest update from 1 of our brokers.
The really interesting part of the forecast is 2025 profit.
Up 350% from 2022
.
Saga (Buy, TP: 230p) Updating to reflect underwriting guidance
“ Following termination of discussions to sell the underwriting subsidiary (AICL) to Open Insurance, we now update our forecasts into line with guidance issued in the January trading update. Underlying PBT guidance for the year to Jan 23 was revised to "towards the lower end" of the previous £20-30m range. The change is driven by a deterioration in the expected current year underwriting combined ratio from 110% to 125%, which Saga attributed to a modest increase in claims frequency and above-average large losses. The majority of underwriting losses will be absorbed by quota share reinsurers, but the retained element impacts Saga's results. We have also moderated our underwriting profit forecasts for outer years to reflect the lower base from which margins need to recover. Our updated forecasts look for growth in underlying PBT from £20m in Jan 23 (previously £25m) to £39m in Jan 24 (£44m), and £68m in Jan 25 (£74m), driven by normalisation of cruise in Jan 24 and growth in the relaunched tours business across both years”
.
There is little conviction , a lot of scepticism and some future hope in todays markets but look at history…
The War will end , Inflation will fall, the Pound will recover , the Energy crisis will come to an end and the markets will turn Bullish.
EVENTUALLY !
Best Wishes.

If you subscribe to SAGA Magazine you may have already read Euan Sutherlands Welcome on page 9.
If not the key sentence is;
“SAGA Call Centre is currently handling 4 times the number of travel enquiries they handled pre-pandemic!”
We’ve recently returned from a Caribbean Cruise and both the flights and the Ship were full.
Travel bookings for 2023 and 2024 are Booming.
SAGA will almost certainly be reporting strong figures for travel in April.
Best Wishes