Member Info for Alnwick

Hi Rupans.

The update was from Numis.

Happy Weekend

I Believe the Saga Ship is finally turning Starboard !

As I've said a number of times on this site I have been a shareholder in SAGA since June 2019.

I initially bought in when the shares tanked after Lance Batchelor issued a profits warning !

The investment case appeared to be solid as SAGA had a very profitable insurance business making 100M+Net Profit ,

New Cruise Ships arriving soon and a 8,500,000 Database of "Grey Tops!" who have most of the UK's wealth.

SAGA share price on 20th June 2019 was 452p !

Well that solid investment case didn't consider;

1. A Pandemic which started in China in late 2019 arriving in the UK early 2020 and BOJO locking down the whole country on 23rd March 2020.

2. Interest rates starting to rise in December 2021 and rising 500% !

3. Russia invading Ukraine in February 2022

4. Inflation hitting 11%

5. Second Hand Cars and Car Parts rocketing in value.

SAGA's business was crippled !

To make matters even worse SAGA had appointed a new CEO Euan Sutherland who proved to be a liability.

I believe the only good thing he did was bring back RDH as a major investor and Chairman as part of a 15-1 share split and rights issue that effectively saved the Company.

The last 5 years has been wealth destruction for most of SAGA's shareholders.

I have been buying the substantial dips and actually broke into profit in June 2021 ( No I didn't sell !)

I continued to buy the substantial dips as Covid ended and War broke out and inflation raged.

I actually bought more yesterday... Why you ask ?

SAGA have a new CEO who is already making positive changes to the businesses.

The Cruise and River Cruise business have just posted Good profits and 2024/25 bookings are very good.

Travel is finally making a profit and the new tours and packages are selling well.

The Motor Insurance market is slowly returning to normality and we will see more A&M activity which should result in the disposal of SAGA Motor Insurance.

SAGA are generating CASH. 74.5M was paid off debt last year.

Cash at Jan 31st was 169.8M with an undrawn RCF of 50M and an undrawn 85M facility from RDH

The 150M bond will be repaid in May.

Current trading and revised forecasts suggest the company will generate 85M+ Free cash flow in 2024

The Debt is now manageable and interest rates will start to fall later this year.

The Tide is finally turning !!!!!

Best Wishes

house broker update

saga (buy, tp: 175p) material cash beat. strategic focus on partnerships.

underlying pbt of £38m is slightly ahead of consensus of £37m, with no significant surprises within the components given key operating metrics were pre-announced in january. that said, cash of £170m has come in materially better than guidance of £135-145m due to a £10m one-off release from travel and favourable cash flow timing and working capital movements. consequently, net debt of £637m is less than consensus of £660m, with nd/ebitda leverage of 5.4x versus consensus of 5.8x. guidance for the current year is for underlying pbt to be broadly consistent with £38m just reported, which is below previous consensus of £46m due to investment in price and acquisition costs to stabilise insurance broking policy volumes (previously ***ged but now indirectly quantified). saga says early signs indicate the remedial insurance strategy is delivering the expected benefits. the travel businesses continue to perform very well, with strong bookings data for the year ahead. strategic initiatives have been broadened to include potential partnerships that could support growth in both ocean cruise and insurance, in addition to achieving the previously announced objective of reducing debt by crystalising value.

consensus. buy tp £175p

60.5% upside

Interesting comments Ianian , zccax77 and Sparafucile.

We flew yesterday with BA to Miami and both First and Business class cabins were full.

I think after being lockdown people who have the financial ability to Fly , Cruise and Stay are booking First , Upper ,Business and Suites.

SAGA are a very niche Cruise business with only 2 Cruise Ships and 4 River Ships (2 more under construction)

Their customer base are "Grey Tops" who have most of the UK's net worth and they are travelling.

The upcoming results should uplifting !!

Here’s a sneak peak at my brokers update for SAGA.

Saga share price outlook

A quick glance at City expectations for the company's growth over the next few years seems to support my conclusion. Analysts believe the corporation will report earnings growth of more than £80m in the 2023 financial year. Analysts also expect the group to report profit of £66m in 2023.

Based on these numbers, the stock is trading at a 2023 price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 5.4.

That looks cheap compared to the rest of the market, which is dealing at an average P/E multiple of around 14.

These figures imply the stock could be worth three times more than its current value in the best-case scenario. However, these numbers are just estimates at this stage.

.

We all know there are quite a few imponderables!

April 17th is going to be Very interesting

Hi Billzo, Like you I read the trading update which highlighted 2023.

The UK economy is changing month on month for the better and the Insurance sector is too.

SAGA must be seeing the same market conditions as Sabre and Direct Line.

We shall all see how much effect on April 17th !

Good results today from Direct Line.

The Insurance business is stabilising and in particular Motor Insurance.

SAGA Insurance must be feeling the same positive market trends.

We will find out next month!

.

Direct Line reported that in 2023 it swung to pretax profit of GBP277.4 million from a GBP301.8 million loss in 2022. Gross written premium improved to GBP3.11 billion up 27% from GBP2.44 billion. On the back of the results, Direct Line declared a 4.0p total dividend for 2023, down from 7.6p in 2022. Looking ahead, Direct Line said it will reveal results of strategy review at capital markets day in July. It added that it plans to run-rate annualised cost savings of at least GBP100 million by the end 2025. "While the picture has improved, we need to do more to drive performance and we have identified immediate actions we can take in 2024 to create value, including substantially reducing our cost base, driving claims excellence and optimising pricing capabilities whilst returning us back to higher quotability levels," CEO Adam Winslow said.

Good Results this morning from SABRE.

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

- Overall premium +31.4%. Core Motor Vehicle +47.5%

- Profit ahead of expectations at £23.6m

- Very strong pre-dividend capital position of 205.3%. Well in excess of target operating range of 140%-160%

- Year-end dividend of 8.1p. Consisting of 4.2p ordinary and 3.9p special. 0.9p interim dividend already paid

- Post dividend capital of 170.9%, will support earn-through of current and possible future growth

- Overall loss ratio in-line with our expectations

- Expense ratio above 2023 due to growth in top-line not reflected in earned premium during the year, whilst the expense base has been subject to inflation and a small number of one-off expenses. The expense ratio has improved notably in the second half of the year

MARKET

Very strong market-wide price correction observed in H2'23, allowing Sabre to grow premiums whilst returning profitability to historic levels

This all bodes well for SAGA’s Motor Insurance business!

Good travel article in this mornings Times.

Saga’s swish, stylish ships are aimed at the over-50s and are a great choice for travelling with an older parent who appreciates the comforting environment of a cruise but wants to join together ports such as Kristiansand, Gothenburg, Copenhagen and Klaipeda, all featured on this no-fly Scandinavian Gems itinerary. And don’t dismiss the 999-passenger Spirit of Discovery as fuddy-duddy; there’s jazz in the Club By Jools (Holland), the Asian and seafood restaurants are top-notch and the parties in the Britannia Lounge are crowd-pleasers for any age. All the cabins are gorgeous too, each with a balcony.

Details Twelve nights’ all-inclusive from £3,823pp, with four excursions and a chauffeur-driven car to and from Dover, departing on August 4 (travel.saga.co.uk)

We will get a good update on the current state of the UK Insurance market this week.

SABRE. Results on Tuesday. DIRECT LINE on Thursday

CARD are only capturing a share of the UK online business.

CARD need to register the Domain site. WWW.CARDFACTORY.COM

I’ve checked and it’s available and that opens up the World !

This is going to FLY higher than Pigeons or Pigs !!!!

Hi zccax77

Our last cruise with Seabourn was fully booked !

Our recent Christmas cruise with Celebrity was fully booked !

We have booked one of the few remaining suites on our September cruise with Regent.

Cruise and Travel business is Booming.

SAGA must be experiencing record bookings on Ocean and River Cruises.

Best Wishes

I’ve sold all of my MOON shares and bought more CARD

The new CARD website is every bit as good as MOON and their prices are 50+% LESS than MOON prices !!!

Check it out. WWW.CARDFACTORY.CO.UK

CARD have also extended their range of products in a similar way to MOON.

CARD dominate the high street and are going to take online market share from MOON

MOON will have to reduce their prices to compete !

CARD is trading on a P/E of 6

MOON is trading on a P/E of 17 !!!!!

I have used CARD website a few times over the last few years and it was “Clunky!”

I’ve just ordered and personalized 2 Birthday Cards on the new website and it’s AMAZING !

I paid 5-76 including 1st Class post for 2 fully personalized cards.

Just for curiosity I went onto MOONPIG.COM and designed 2 very similar cards and their price was 11-20

Moonpig have a membership available for 9-99 per year which gives 33% discount.

They claim to have 250,000 members. Good idea for CARD.

The upshot is CARD website is very similar to MOON and the standard price is HALF !!!

CARD need to start an online advertising campaign and they will destroy MOON

I’ve just bought more CARD

Happy Weekend

MOON results tomorrow will be very interesting.

They have been spending heavily via acquisitions , technology and recruitment so if sales have not dramatically improved we may see a profit miss !

I sold all of my MOON and bought more CARD.

Hi Sparafucile,

Thank you for your response.

As a shareholder is sad to hear of your bad experiences!

We are keen Cruisers and our go to companies are;

1. Regent . 2.Celebrity ( Retreat). 3. Seabourn

We have heard great things about SAGA from fellow cruisers but SAGA only sail from the South Coast and living in Northumberland it’s awful journey coupled with crossing the Bay of Biscay !!

I have asked SAGA if they will expand the departure locations and they told me it’s on the agenda.

Best Wishes

Hi Sparafucile

I see you joined the LSE site on 6th March and this is your first post.

Welcome to the site.

As a fellow shareholder I read your post with interest.

I’m a little confused as you appear to start quite positively on SAGA Cruise and bookings and end with a very negative comment base on rudeness from a Restaurant Supervisor!

As a 50/60 nights cruiser I would welcome your further input on your cruising experiences and particularly with SAGA.

Best Wishes

PS

Did you obtain a Shareholder discount?

Hi Retired Banker,

It’s purely Sector ratings!

The market views MOON as Tech and CARD as retail.

I expect CARD results next month to be very good and given Debt will have reduced yet again we should see a small Dividend!

I Sold all of MOON and Doubled up on CARD

Screaming Buy!

Best Wishes

Directline have turned down a £3.1Billion bid

As the insurance sector recovers SAGA must be on someone’s radar !!

Hi Billzo,

The Net Debt figure was £711.7M in January 23

The Net Debt figure was £657.4M in September 23

The Net Debt figure will have increased slightly as stated in Januarys Trading update as cash was in the range £135-145M

Net Debt will remain in the £600M’s but remember the company is now generating positive cash !

I would expect Net Debt to be sub £600M by Jan 25

Happy Weekend