Member Info for Alnwick

Our Cousins over the pond are strong buyers of U.K. Companies primarily based on 3 factors;

1. The U.K. economy is recovering faster than anticipated. ( Thank you Rishi 😂)

2. The U.K. Stock Market average P/E is half the S&P

3. The USD is 1-27 v Sterling

( 20 year historical average is 1-62)

Companies with strong Cash Flow and low Debt are in play.

CARD is on a P/E of 7

CARD has extremely strong Cash Flows

CARD has low Debt Ratio

CARD market cap is $450M

CARD doesn’t have a presence in the USA in either Bricks n Mortar retail or Online ( Card.Co.UK )

Huge roll out / leverage potential.

If I had access to $650M I would make a Bid.

SCREAMING BUY !!!!

Norwegian Cruise lines which includes Regent lifted guidance.

Something similar after SAGA’s AGM. would be good !

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) shares sailed 7.6% higher, marking Monday's top performance among S&P 500 stocks. The company lifted its full-year profit guidance, highlighting strong demand. Norwegian also introduced a new strategy aimed at enhancing its position as a market leader in vacation experiences, on land as well as at sea. The positive outlook also helped buoy other cruise operators' stocks—shares of Carnival Corp. (CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) were up 7.2% and 4.1%,

Good News that the Bond has been repaid.

However it would have been nice to learn how much of RDH £85M was used and what facilities remain !

I’m sure the negotiations with AGEAS will be ongoing.

Deutsche Numis came out with a number of Upgrades and Buy recommendations yesterday and SAGA was one of them.

Its really a reiteration of the Numis Buy from last year at 154P

Another of their Buy recommendations that caught my eye was CAPITA.

If you think SAGA is a recovery play take a look at CAPITA

It's been a disaster but they have a new CEO with a strong IT background.

I added it my Portfolio a few weeks ago as its a play on AI.

Deutsche think its a Buy with a 250% upside at 35p !

I hope they're right.

DYOR

I rate the research dept at Deutsche and they upgraded CAPITA yesterday to a BUY with a target price of 35P

They didn't specify when that 250% increase will crystallise but its worth another PUNT !

Lets hope their research is correct.

Hi Bhaveen,

The MM’s will have too much stock on their books.

When this moves the Supply-Demand scenario will begin and CARD will move.

It could move aggressively as it’s very Cheap in relation to Broker-Analysts forecasts.

Buys today outnumber sells 4-1

Consensus Buy OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts 4

2 Buy 2 Hold

Last Close Price 1.03 GBP

Average target price 1.492 GBP +44.90%

High Price Target 1.90 GBP +87%

.

This will fly over the next 24 months.

All you need is Patience or you could become a Patient !

Best Wishes

Hi Batfasted,

Eldose had 8,683,085 SAGA shares a few months ago. He now has 10,000,000.

Artemis have also added to their position.

Best Wishes

Looks like Eldose Babu from Dubai is still buying.

Eldose is now SAGA's 2nd largest shareholder with 10,000,000 7.052%

We have a large seller Teleios Capital.

They had 23% of CARD and have been selling for months.

Currently still have 11.61% 40,115,038 shares

They are the Sellars and WACE know it !

Use weakness to top up as CARD will move up strongly when the seller stops.

I don’t think SAGA will sell the Cruise Ships as they now make most of the Profits !

These ships are worth £1B in todays market.

SAGA Net Debt at year end was £637M

As interest rates fall and profits rise the debt will be paid down and refinanced.

I think the smart play is to sell the Insurance business and the new relationship with Ageas suggests that may happen. Ageas recently bid for Direct Line.

It’s difficult to determine the value of the Insurance business but Ageas have a great insider view and a relationship.

The current Market Cap of SAGA at £155M is

Crazy Cheap !!!!

A Sale of the Insurance business could potentially wipe out the debt and leave a Cruise and Travel Business making close to £100M.

Apply a very conservative multiple of 6 times profits and you see the Value upside

Then SAGA will be Sailing !!

Very happy with CARD 2024 Results and the 4.5p dividend is the Icing on the cake !

Given trading continues to be good we should be looking at an interim dividend later in the year which should result in a 5-6% dividend yield.

Add in further CARD share appreciation and this is an Investment “NoBrainer”

Send CARDS to everyone you Know !

Bye Bye MOON

BUY BUY CARD !

Hi Rupans,

Insurance used to be the £100M+ SAGA cash cow.

Now it’s the Cruise Business and it will only become more profitable and the Ships are worth considerably more than they cost.

It’s very difficult to Lease Good quality Cruise Ships.

A Good site to look at is CruiseMapper.

The data below is from that site.

There are 56 Ships under construction and it takes 3-5 years to build Ocean Cruise Ships and 1.5- 2 years for River.

In 2023, the number of cruise vessels (ordered and scheduled for launches in 2023-2028) was 56 (~USD/EUR 39 billion, average cost per unit ~USD/EUR 680M), including 19 (2023-inaugurated), 10 (2024/30,000+ berths), 19 (2025), and 20 (2026-2028).

By 2028, the new vessels (2023-28) add to the global fleet 129000+ berths.

Take a look at my post on the 15th March.

CARD online is eating into MOON.

CARD is at least 50% cheaper and the quality is now exactly the same!

CARD results are on Tuesday.

They announced in their January trading statement that their results will be at the high end of Market expectations.

I sold all of my MOON and put it all into CARD after buying birthday cards at CARD online.

CARD online has really improved Quality and the personalisation is equally as good as MOON and the prices are at least 50% less !

CARD told us in the January Trading Update that Results will be at the high side of market expectations. £62M

The restriction on Dividends was probably lifted in January and I expect a return to a small Dividend later in the year.

Tuesday 30th April should be a Good day !

HOMER1234

Interesting comparison FIAT to FERRARI !

I own a few FERRARI’s and they used to be part of FIAT

and the older ones look great but drive like a FIAT

only a little faster !!

Our go to Cruise lines are REGENT and SEABOURN and most of the British passengers we meet who have been on SAGA rate them as a 5 Star Cruise.

The only reason we don’t use SAGA is the fact that they only sail from the South Coast and we live in Northumberland. That’s a long drive in a FERRARI !!!!

The Times rate SAGA the best Cruise-line for over 50’s.

Why we rate it More than 20 per cent of cabins on Saga’s smart, modern ships are allocated to singles — and each one has a private balcony. Solo travellers are always made welcome on this over-50s line, with a singles’ mingle and a lunch for solos on each cruise. You can request to share a table in any of the restaurants with other guests, and can even ask to buddy-up with other singles on shore excursions. What’s more, there are gentleman dance hosts to dance with those, solo or otherwise, who enjoy a spin at the ship’s ballroom sessions. A chauffeur service between home and the port adds extra reassurance to single travellers concerned about getting luggage on and off public transport on their own.

What’s included Where to start? All dining, drinks, all entertainment, crew tips, wi-fi, chauffeur to and from the port, selected shore excursions and travel insurance.

OUTLOOK

Given the strength of performance in the year to date, the Board expects to deliver full year adjusted profit before tax (excluding one off items) at the top of the range of market expectations3 and remains confident in the achievement of the long-term financial and operational targets set out at our Capital Markets Strategy Update in May 2023.

3 According to Company-compiled consensus estimates as of 15 January 2024, the current range of market expectations for FY24 adjusted profit before tax is £58.4 million to £62.0 million.

.

Given every store I’ve been in in the last 4 months is busy and the online offerings are improving I expect adjusted profit before tax of £62M and the reinstatement of a small dividend!

CARD are currently on a PE of 6.8

MOON are on a PE of 17.8

We should see a significant movement next week.

Hi Accipiter, I share your view on SAGA being a sitting duck and it will be on the Radar of PE too.

The interest from the Prospective buyer at around 265P was before RDH invested.

I think it's more likely that AGEAS will acquire the Insurance business and SAGA will then concentrate on Cruise and Travel to become the over 60's luxury brand in Europe.

They already have another 3 River ships in construction and are expanding the travel business with Private Jet Tours and Longer escorted tours which are very profitable and selling well.

The days of SAGA Insurance making 100M+ appear to be Gone !

I've just watched the SAGA presentation at www.investormeetcompany.com

It's worth watching and the new CEO comes across very well.

Good insight into Cruise & Travel current trading and the future prospects.

What I found particulary interesting was SAGA 's partnership on Motor and Home Insurance is with AGEAS.

AGEAS are the Belgian based Insurance company who recently bid 3.1Billion for DIRECT LINE !

This partnership could develop into an Offer !!

Interesting options

Happy Weekend