Member Info for Alnwick

Hi Rupans ,Graviton,

The blended average cost of the new debt is an initial 7.6 per cent, which is higher than previously paid but compares favourably with the 10 per cent that Saga was paying on the loan from De Haan.

This adds a few Million to the bottom line and as interest rates are forecast to fall 3-4 times in the next 12 months should be a few more £££.

All Good

Best Wishes

The Share price recovery will take time as Saga has been a disaster for the 200,000 retail investors, many of whom were Saga customers, who bought shares in the flotation of 2014. They have lost more than 95 per cent of their money as the company struggled with too much debt and tough conditions in general insurance.

The Tide is turning and the new management team are executing their strategy well !

I’ve made huge gains in the market by buying into companies that the market perceives to be basket cases. Some recent examples being RR , IAG and M&S

SAGA was a darling pre flotation and I’m not suggesting it will return to 2014 price but I believe there will be significant upside in the next 3 years.

Good Luck !

The Biggest threat to SAGA has been lifted !!

The Debt has been refinanced and interest rates with be falling again soon. Great News

Cruising and Travel are Booming. Great News

The Aegis deal is going to reduce head count on the SAGA payroll. Great News

The Aegis deal will have a positive effect on the Insurance business. Great News.

Sort term effect on revenues from the deal. Patience!

My Spin on the Wheel is finally looking like it may just produce a return.

Best Wishes

Hi All,

I’m a glass half full person and a Gambler !

Red obviously relates to a Loss

Black is a Winner !!

The wheel is spinning ….,,,

Best Wishes

⚫️

Rogue, I agree with your comments on the financial benefits to SAGA on their 3 year fixed policies!

Our SAGA motor policies are not fixed and I’ve just renewed two of them and the prices have fallen by 42%

Thursday will be Very interesting.

Best Wishes

Hi Graviton,

A very similar range to Target but the display of the cards in Walmart was poor !

we are currently in the usa and we had a visit to target and walmart ( 2 of garvens biggest customers) to see what the selection of cards and fancy wrapping papers are like. good due diligence and the weather is **** !

target have a huge card selection from american greetings , hallmark and minted.

the quality of all three of these brands is very similar to card however the prices are treble card !

president trump is going to introduce tariffs but so far hasn't mention the u.k.

this could be a huge market for card.

the us market is a tough one to crack but price comparisons could help.

like you i'm waiting with interest for the updated figures and hopefully some guidance on the garven business.

Cheap Card Factory offers ‘significant upside’, says Berenberg

Shares in Card Factory (CARD) remain ‘too cheap’ and offer significant upside given the confident outlook from the greeting card and gift retailer, says Berenberg.

Analyst Adam Tomlinson retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 154p on the stock, which was trading down 1.5% at 94.3p on Friday morning.

Management has delivered ‘exactly as promised’ in the second half after a profit decline in the first half, including ‘continued robust revenue growth, and with cost/efficiency benefits materialising as planned’, the analyst said of the recent update.

‘It reaffirms our confidence that the group can deliver on its strategic, operational, and financial targets as it progresses towards its full-year 2027 ambitions,’ said Tomlinson.

The shares, however, remain ‘too cheap’ on a price/earnings multiple of 6.4 times and a dividend yield of 5.2% and Tomlinson said there is ‘significant upside from here’.

Let’s Hope he’s Right !

SAGA Trading update is always last week in January.

Ship was packed !

Hi zccax77,

Thank you for posting the SAGA bond details.

Interesting to see they are down 15% in the last 12 months and the yield on the bond is now 16% !

We should all buy the Bonds

I share many of the views of SAGA’s crazy valuation on this site.

We have just returned from 2 weeks cruising in the Caribbean. The Ship was full and every port we visited was packed.

Cruise & Travel are booming.

I’m expecting good news !

I agree with you Lorenzo and like you I’ve added to my position in CARD which is now my largest holding.

Rachel from Accounts ( Total Buffoon !) has ruined what was the fastest growing economy in the G7.

Starmer has been a disaster and will have to take prisoners to survive himself!

The obvious casualty is Rachel from Accounts and the quick fix for her successor is to reverse Employers NHI

The costs to Retail and Hospitality are Huge.

CARD are navigating these stormy seas very well and I’m personally delighted with their progress and the reiteration of their forecast for 2025 & 2026.

The dividends themselves are a nice return.

Best Wishes

CARD are in a very strong position in retailing as their Gross and Net Margins are Huge !

2024 GM was 36.2%

2024 NM was 12.76 %

The company will be hit with £20- £25m of additional cost due to NMW and Employers NHI , however a 5% price increase covers £25M !

CARD is a Cash Cow and I’m feeling positive that next week will confirm the case.

I’m also looking forward to seeing revised forecasts for 2025 & 2026 which will include GARVEN USA and the synergies.

Best Wishes

I believe the Trading update is January 14th.

Happy New Year

Hi Bhaveen,

Thank you for posting your price checks.

I regularly purchase CARD personalised cards just to see and feel the quality and digital capability of the web offering and I think CARD quality is now exactly the same as Moonpig and the website continues to improve.

Best Wishes and Merry Christmas

Card Factory next door to Greggs. What a combo !

Interestingly the ex CEO of Greggs used to be on the board of CARD.

Any sign of the Monkey ?

Best Wishes for a CARD giving Christmas

I posted a few days after AVIVA announced the Acquisition of Direct Line that I expected an announcement from SAGA on the AGEAS deal.

I personally think this is a long term Game Changer !

We all know the cash cow of SAGA is now the Cruise and Travel business which will continue to grow and prosper.

This deal will instantly improve the companies Balance Sheet and the Partnership with AGEAS will help SAGA to grow the Insurance business.

There will be substantial cost savings to SAGA as a large number of staff will be transferred under TUPE to AGEAS.

We need to see the fine detail in terms of TUPE transfer savings , Establishment savings and Commissions payable

but this will be Cash positive.

Merry Christmas

MOON have spent big time on both Acquisitions and Tech.

The underlying business is contracting partly due to CARD (More on this later)

and advances in Digital Printing Technology.

I've been involved in Digital printing for 25 years and the cost of the Wide Track Printers has plummeted making entry into the Digital Printing market very easy.

MOON don't now have a USP you can buy personalised cards from numerous outlets or for a few hundred pounds buy a printer and do it yourself.

MOON are also expensive !

CARD Factory have over 1,000 outlets and their Personalised offering is improving by the day.

CARD are less than half the price of MOON and the quality is exactly the same as both the base material (paper and card) is coming from a handful of Paper mills and the Digital Printing capability is largely outsourced to International locations.

CARD have also recently acquired a US company Garven who are fancy wrapping and Gift wholesalers who supply most of the huge retailers in the USA. Walmart , Target being the 2 largest. Huge cross selling opportunity.

MOON is on a P/E of 23

CARD is on a P/E of 8

DYOR

I'm out of MOON and into CARD.

Merry Christmas

Hi Bottomberb, (Good Name)

It's impossible to call a top or a bottom but when CARD hit 79.6p on November 13th I thought this is crazy cheap !

I loaded up on the 14th and on this occasion I was right !

I see considerable upside in CARD and good dividends so I'm holding firm.

Merry Christmas CARD

AVIVA increased the offer to £3.6M

SAGA Insurance is 1/6th the size of Directline.

Aegis tried to buy Directline and must now be keen to close a deal with SAGA !

I’m sure Good News is on its way in 2025

Patience is a Virtue