Member Info for Alnwick

My Broker sent me the latest list of SAGA major shareholders;

RDH 27% ELDOSE BABU 9.14% SAGA EMPLOYEES 6.42%. HOSKINGS 6.34%. HARGREAVES LANSDOWNE 6.5%

ABERDEEN 5.19% KERNOW 3.28%. NORGES BANK. 2.98%. SCHRODER. 2.68%. HBOS 2.62%. UBP ASSET BMA. 2.46%

HSBC 1.87% BARCLAYS BANK 1.79% NATWEST MARKETS 1.6%. BARCLAYS PLC 1.31% DIMENSIONAL FUNDS 1.2%

BLACKROCK 1.06% HANDELSBANKEN 0.92% LONDON WEALTH 0.76% CAPITAL FINANCIAL. 0.7%.

GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND 0.65% NUF MUTUAL 0.63% UBS 0.59% LEGAL & GENERAL 0.56% RAYMOND JAMES 0.44%

There isn't very many shares in the public domain so supply is thin and demand appears to be Strong.

The first rule of Economics !!

Going to be another interesting week

Best Wishes

UT Buy 1,870,712 shares @ 432p 8,000,000 Pounds

Happy Weekend All.

Rupans,

We SAGA hits 600p I think I can afford to buy you a Pint or two !!

Cheers

Don't be concerned SalfordRed... ( I guess you're a Man U Fan ?)

Our Big Castle has a great roof and doesn't leak !

www.alnwickcastle.com

Looking forward to seeing you all.

When I suggested the 600p Party in Alnwick the share price was around 100p.

Since RDH invested I've always felt confident that this would eventually get close to FTSE 250 membership and that would be the catalyst for 600p

My time frame was 3-5 years. This could hit 600p this year !!!

I'm now taking names for the PARTY.

Who's coming ?

Best Wishes

Good Post Sparks21, I am also a Contrarian Investor and have today added to my already significant holding in CARD.

The Trading update on December 12th gave a forecast of PBT in the range of 55M - 60M.

If as many on this site expect , the final 2 weeks of Christmas trading has been good the outcome for the year could be 60M.

The share price was slammed on the 12th December and has continued to drift down.

CARD is 66p with a Market Cap of 227.5M yielding 7.5%

OMG. If I had 250M lying in my Bank account I would bid for the company !!

This is an unfashionable old school high street retailer with few competitors , high margins and cheap prices.

The Trading update on the 28th will have a very positive impact on this stupidly low price !

Happy New Year

Great to see Kelso taking a position in SAGA.

The town of Kelso is only 41 Miles from Alnwick.

I rate the Investment team at Kelso.

They could visit the town when they come to our

£6 Party at Alnwick !

HaWay The Lads 🥂

Hi Asper,

We are regulars at the Jolly Fisherman.

Top Spot !

Best Wishes

Hi Aspers, I haven't sold any of my SAGA shares and I have no need or desire to do so.

SAGA hit 420 in July 2021 and then collapsed !!!

SAGA is up 212.3% in 12 months and 52.4% in a month !!!

The Alnwick 600p party is coming sooner than anticipated and I'm heading for a BAR !

MERRY CHRISTMAS

I see two large deals after the close for 2,000,000.

I hope they are institutional purchases.

Hi Petera007, Its always a difficult call to Pound cost average when a stock is in free fall !

SAGA looked like it was going bust until RDH was encouraged to reinvest by Sutherland

( The only good thing Sutherland did !)

I'm sure you remember the day SAGA dropped to 72p , October 17th 2022.

My wife and Daughter now think I'm an investment Genius. I think I'm just a lucky guy !

Stay with this stock and come to the 600p party at Alnwick Castle.

It maybe sooner than we all thought !

Best Wishes

As most shareholders I'm shocked at the 26.4p fall in CARD's share price.

I think it's way over done and will bounce back between Monday and the January Trading Update.

The latest Trading Update / Profit Warning stated that Profit would still come in at between 55m - 60m

It also said they will be paying a Progressive Full Year Dividend.

We have enjoyed 4.9P this year so something over 5P next year based on the current share price is 7%+

CARD is now on a P/E of 5.83. This is ridiculously Cheap !

I will be buying more next week.

Best Wishes

I'm now thankfully out of this "Wounded Pig!"

They have spent 30M Pounds buying their own shares without those purchases this stock would be down another 30%

Take a look at the Half Year KPI's.

YOY sales up 6.7% Inflation is 3.8%

Gross Margin Down 1.6%

Dividend 1.25p

91 % of sales were from existing customers

Therefore tiny growth.

Take a look at the same KPI's for CARD.

Dominant in High Street

Recently Bought Funky Pigeon

Double the Sales

Half the P/E ratio

Huge Dividend.

Happy to be totally in CARD

Merry Christmas CARD

Hi Aspers,

Good call!

We know the Greggs Family as its a Newcastle based company and my company supplied them for years.

I was a Greggs shareholder for a long time and Sold when Roger Whiteside stepped down.

That turned out to be pretty good timing !

I agree with you that Greggs appears to be cheap but I'm waiting to see what the latest budget will cost them.

Further increases to the NMW and Commercial property rates !

Best Wishes

My Post in January !

Keep Calm and Carry On31 Jan 2025 09:15

The Share price recovery will take time as Saga has been a disaster for the 200,000 retail investors, many of whom were Saga customers, who bought shares in the flotation of 2014. They have lost more than 95 per cent of their money as the company struggled with too much debt and tough conditions in general insurance.

The Tide is turning and the new management team are executing their strategy well !

I’ve made huge gains in the market by buying into companies that the market perceives to be basket cases. Some recent examples being RR , IAG and M&S

SAGA was a darling pre flotation and I’m not suggesting it will return to 2014 price but I believe there will be significant upside in the next 3 years.

Good Luck !

Isn't it nice to be Right $$$

I've just woke up to a very nice message

SAGA just hit 300p

We are half way to Alnwick Castle !

Happy Weekend

After another attack on Business from "Rachel in Accounts!" I've been looking at the financial implications on some of my investments.

The changes to Business Rates and further increases to the NMW will increase costs for CARD and my calculations are;

CARD wages for Store and Warehouse staff in 2025 were 134.4M The budget increase on NMW of 50p is 4.2% and I'm guessing most of the Store and Warehouse staff are on NMW so remove the NHI cost and the maximum increase in CARD wages is 4.5M

Changes to Business Rates is very difficult to calculate for CARD as they have 1090 Stores in UK & Ireland plus Warehouse.

However the general consensus from the accounting community suggests an average increase of around 15%

CARD total property costs were 25M in 2025 so that could rise by 3.75M Max !

With very high margins on incredibly competitive prices CARD should be able to pass on these costs via nominal price increases.

All in All I'm happy with my position and remain confident of significant UPSIDE !!

Lets hope its a Very Merry Christmas

Hi Rupans,

I think most CARD shops will be below 500k RV.

Anyone got any firm info on this ?

Kernow have been SAGA Shareholders for a few years and currently have 4,238,107 shares which is 3.02%

Kernow is Cornish for Cornwall and they are a boutique Investment Co. who only invest in the U.K.

Here are the current major Shareholders;

ROGER DE HAAN

39,876,355

27.53%

Eldose Babu

13,163,101

9.18%

Artemis Investment Management LLP

7,440,083

9.98%

Kernow Asset Management Limited

4,238,107

3.02%

Aggregate of Standard Life Aberdeen plc

4,193,681

5.61%

Majedie Asset Management Limited

3,738,311

4.99%

Pictet Asset Management Ltd

3,737,656

4.99%

Blackrock, Inc.

3,735,633

4.99%

Pelham Long/Short Master Fund Limited

3,324,508

4.44%

Mário Nuno dos Santos Ferreira

2,244,000

3.00%

Best Wishes

Hi All,

Those Bloody REDS are destroying the Country !

The expression Red in relation to Premier League is numerous;

Arsenal , Liverpool , Forest , Man Utd

I’m Allergic to anything that’s Red other than Wine !

We can have a great Footy chat at Alnwick Castle at our 600P Party.

Best Wishes

EDISON UPGRADE ON CARD

CARD LOOKS LIKE A GIFT

Card Factory (CARD) made good progress on its strategy to become a leading global celebrations group in FY25. In the UK, further development of its product categories and space expansion led to market outperformance, while its international presence was boosted by extending existing relationships and M&A. Management expects the recent acquisition of funkypigeon.com to provide a meaningful fillip to its online capabilities and growth aspirations. CARD's attractive medium-term growth prospects and rapidly de-gearing balance sheet provide plenty of flexibility in how to deploy its capital above and beyond existing cash returns. These are not reflected in its valuation with c 64% upside to our revised DCF-based valuation of 169p/

share and a double-digit equity free cash flow yield.

64% UPSIDE