RE: Price rising as news is upon us11 Aug 2025 22:24
A very balanced analysis from Asterix.
It makes a change from all the hair pulling today!
I would only add that QBT has a track record for over promising and underdelivering. If you scroll back 12 months, the 'imminent news' posts were pretty much identical to those being posted now. Go back 24 months and there was optimism based on Gardin's assertion that commercial negotiations to roll out the tech were at an advanced stage, and the lawyers on both sides were finalising contract terms. That came to nothing with no explanation given, leaving a very strong suspicion that the original assertion was simply not true. If we never hear any more of the current negotiations, or are told 'it is proving more difficult and taking longer than expected' (a frequent Gardin refrain), that would be a disappointment, but not a surprise. Remember too that Gardin said of the present marketing initiative 'it is early days'. He has been much more cautious this year than he was last, when it was all 'on track for revenue by year end' (another assertion that came to nothing with no explanation given).
My guess (and it is only a guess) is that if anything comes of the current initiative it will be some sort of joint venture to move the tech from theory to practical application, with a partner with deep pockets and strong in house expertise shouldering much of the load going forward.
Given the very real risk that nothing will come of the present negotiations at all, I am happy to sit on the sidelines until we know the score. If the news is good, i shall be buying at a bit higher than today's price, but i will know what i am buying, and how much of the 'cake' QBT will have, with plenty of profit still in prospect when I buy. And if nothing comes of all the current negotiations my money will still be in my pocket, not in shares which would probably fall another 50%, or the company might well fold altogether.
This is a fast moving field: 4 years with nothing tangible to show for many millions of pounds of R&D is actually pretty unimpressive. Computing and chips have come a hell of a long way over that period. Has QBT's R&D even kept up? It was said to be ready to roll out a couple of years ago. If it didn't cut the mustard then, there is a real risk that it looks even less impressive to miners and rig-makers now. That is one reason why my guess is that if anything comes of the current negotiations it will be a JV to develop the tech, with an industry heavyweight which sees something (but not yet a product ready to put to work) in the R&D. I am reinforced in that view by the consideration that if it had been pretty much ready (subject to minor adaptions and tweaks) to plug in and go for a couple of years now the current exercise would have come to fruition with a contract, or at least an announcement, by now. With every day of continued silence that passes, it is more difficult to regard no news as good news.
Just one prospective investor's best gu