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RIGZONE, Thursday, February 15, 2024
Standard Chartered Reveals Where It Thinks Brent Oil Price Should Be
In a report sent to Rigzone late Tuesday, analysts at Standard Chartered said they still do not think crude oil prices fully reflect the rapid tightening of the market or the recent escalation of geopolitical risk.
The analysts noted in the report that, in their view, a Brent price above $90 per barrel “would more adequately reflect current fundamentals and risks”.
Standard Chartered projected in the report that the ICE Brent price will average $92 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $94 per barrel in the second quarter, $98 per barrel in the third quarter, and $96 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The company expects the commodity to average $109 per barrel in 2025, $128 per barrel in 2026, and $115 per barrel in 2027, the report showed.
Because UK, although no longer part of the EU, is nevertheless considered a stable longstanding friendly European country sharing similar values to rest of Europe and in M&A terms this matters lots. This deal will rapidly transform HBR into a major global O&G player trading within the FTSE 100.
Great Divi, huge Capital gains potential, solid proactive management, fantastic PMO and now richly diversified/outstanding Wintershall Dea assets all in the works, what’s not to like here, sometimes markets offer exceptionally unique opportunities and HBR today is now one such case I believe.
Hopefully the HBR - Wintershall deal will close somewhat sooner than the anticipated Q4 and the resulting HBR (being the size of Aker BP) will easily be back in the FTSE 100.
HBR/Wintershall DEA Deal:
Chris Wheaton at Stifel thinks the deal is almost certain to close. He says of the tie-up, which will take Harbour production from a forecast 187,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) to over 500,000 boepd: “The market in our view is ignoring the Wintershall deal and focusing solely on the base portfolio, which is going to be only circa 35 per cent of the business from 2025 onwards.”
Hopefully the HBR - Wintershall deal will close somewhat sooner than the anticipated Q4 and the resulting HBR (being the size of Aker BP) will easily be back in the FTSE 100.
Whenever I see extremely low trading volumes for most of the day followed by a large closing UT (especially in UK markets) as was the case for HBR yesterday, it usually stinks of manipulation, I’m guessing that apart from Carlos Slim, either someone else is also loading up here or a Shorter is trying to manipulate the share price during a very low volume trading session, hold tight for black gold!
Just checked the Simply Wall Street analysis/link and it states HBR fair value as £8.82 at the moment, I assume this includes the Wintershall Dea M&A
With Brent rallying and now trading at USD $81+ here, HBR SP was pushed down today on extremely low trading volumes for most of the day, which as usual in UK markets makes manipulation lot easier than usual!
Low trading volumes here today, unlike yesterday, and a fair UT Buy at the close.
Going forward, HBR is going to be a Multibagger with FTSE 100 status by this very year end, it’s crystal clear but DYOR.
Wintershall Dea’s drilling ops with Transocean rig cleared for take-off
Wintershall Dea Norge, a subsidiary of Germany’s oil and gas company Wintershall Dea, has secured a green light from the Norwegian offshore safety regulator for the drilling of four wells in the Norwegian Sea, using one of Transocean’s semi-submersible rigs.
The Norwegian Ocean Industry Authority (Havtil) has granted Wintershall Dea consent to use Transocean’s Transocean Norge semi-submersible rig at the Maria field, which covers the drilling of three production wells and one water injector well.
Located on Haltenbanken in the Norwegian Sea, 25 kilometers east of the Kristin field, in a water depth of 300 meters, the Maria field was discovered in 2010 while the plan for development and production (PDO) was approved in 2015. This field, which is developed as a subsea tie-back with two templates, has five producers and two water injectors. The production started in 2017.
The Transocean Norge sixth-generation Moss Maritime CS60 semi-submersible rig was constructed at Jurong Shipyard in Singapore. The rig can accommodate 150 people and its maximum drilling depth is 40,000 ft. While the semi-sub won a 17-well contract in September 2022, a one-well extension with Wintershall Dea was also recently secured for the rig.
The original contract, with day rates between $350,000 and $430,000, was awarded after two oil and gas companies, Wintershall Dea and OMV, entered into an exclusive partnership with Transocean for the use of the rig for the drilling of all firm and additional potential wells in the period 2023 to 2027.
The Transocean Norge rig is the first semi-submersible rig that secured the Abate (Power+) notation, designed to reflect the best industry practices in greenhouse gas abatement for offshore units.
Currently, Harbour Energy is in the process of acquiring Wintershall Dea‘s entire non-Russian oil and gas portfolio along with carbon capture and storage assets in Europe to bring one of the world’s largest and most geographically diverse independent oil and gas companies to life.
This $11.2 billion share and cash deal boosts Harbour’s portfolio with producing and development assets as well as exploration rights in Norway, Argentina, Germany, Mexico, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, and Denmark.
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/wintershall-deas-drilling-ops-with-transocean-rig-cleared-for-take-off/
HBR/Wintershall DEA Deal:
Chris Wheaton at Stifel thinks the deal is almost certain to close. He says of the tie-up, which will take Harbour production from a forecast 187,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) to over 500,000 boepd: “The market in our view is ignoring the Wintershall deal and focusing solely on the base portfolio, which is going to be only circa 35 per cent of the business from 2025 onwards.”
Buffett-Backed Occidental CEO Says Oil Shortage by 2025
Warren Buffett-backed Occidental Petroleum is predicting an oil supply shortage by 2025 due to global failure to replace crude reserves at a fast enough pace.
“We’re in a situation now where in a couple of years’ time we’re going to be very short on supply,” Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub told CNBC at the Smead Investor Oasis Conference in Phoenix, Arizona on Monday.
Noting that some 97% of the oil the world is currently producing is from discoveries made in the 20th century; yet, globally less than 50% of that crude extracted in the last decade has been replaced.
Hollub’s supply warnings come at a time when the market is pricing in oversupply, with oil prices losing 7% last week, and high-level geopolitical tensions failing to move the needle in any significant way.
Even though the U.S., Brazil, Canada and new giant oil venue Guyana are producing record-high volumes of crude presently, and even in the face of lagging Chinese demand, the future is one of shortage, the Occidental CEO said.
“The market is out of balance right now, but again, this is a short-term demand issue,” Hollub said. “But it’s going to be a long-term supply issue,” she said.
Last year, global oil demand grew at a fast clip, with 2023 consumption exceeding the previous year’s by more than 2 million barrels per day. The consensus among energy agencies is that global oil demand will see another uptick in 2024.
Energy Intelligence predicts that global demand this year will be a modest 1.1`mb/d, reflecting the pre-COVID time, while OPEC forecasts a 1.8 million bpd oil demand growth in 2025. These projections are based on China’s economy strengthening.
Occidental’s warning also comes as the Saudis announce they will not be expanding their oil production capacity, as was earlier planned.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Buffett-Backed-Occidental-CEO-Says-Oil-Shortage-by-2025.html
Https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/1038025/top-10-uk-stock-picks-across-sectors-from-us-investment-bank-stifel-1038025.html?rel=scroll
Top 10 UK stock picks across sectors from US investment bank Stifel
Harbour Energy PLC (LSE:HBR) was picked by analyst Chris Wheaton for its “great” free cash flow (FCF), with the current valuation pricing in UK political risks.
He estimates the market is discounting at a 20% rate on the UK assets but Harbour’s Wintershall deal reduces UK to circa 35% of production and less than 25% of FCF, “so should drive rerating”.
Today, Harbour Energy is undoubtedly the most undervalued & oversold share trading in the FTSE, BASF/Wintershall who had full access to HBR Data room put a £3.60 price per share on a standalone HBR, Wintershall M&A was a surprise to many and hence, manipulation exists here but post merger this has potential to easily reach £7+, just compare with the likes of Aker BP, of course all in my opinion only.
Fact that GS had to raise their HBR price target by 20 pence in less than 24 hours just shows how BS their yesterday’s HBR rating was perceived to be here, it was purely and extremely speculatively/suspiciously based on trying to forecast gas prices 5 years down the line, ignoring fundamentals and most importantly potential successful completion of an Outstanding Wintershall DEA merger by Q4, please DYOR/Maths!
Yes, 500k+ (typo) equivalent production for the post merger Harbour Energy, New HBR will be bigger than Aker BP which today has a market capitalization of circa $USD 14 Billion!
https://companiesmarketcap.com/aker-bp/marketcap/
HBR/Wintershall DEA Deal:
Chris Wheaton at Stifel thinks the deal is almost certain to close. He says of the tie-up, which will take Harbour production from a forecast 187,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) to over 300,000 boepd: “The market in our view is ignoring the Wintershall deal and focusing solely on the base portfolio, which is going to be only circa 35 per cent of the business from 2025 onwards.”
This will be back at £3+ before the next update in early March, and then lot higher by this year’s key company AGM in May, fundamentals are extremely sound here and the maths is also crystal clear.
@Dark_Knight, thanks for sharing, so basically, Goldman Sachs base their HBR analysis/note on weather forecasting for 3+ years ahead which will then interestingly only effects HBR, what a load of total BS from GS as usual, LOL!