Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
Today’s (interestingly post market closure) back to back/2 RNS’s on Carlos Slim/CONTROL EMPRESARIAL DE CAPITALES, S.A. DE C.V. purchase of +4% of Harbour Energy (in 2 consecutive batches) while also maintaining a significant holding in Talos Energy and Zama field is very significant and will likely be an initial purchase leading to lot more ahead and will likely be extremely positive for HBR shares going forward, particularly as now we have one of the richest men onboard HBR and Zama!
HBR - Timely further increased Gas production here via “East Tolmount” just as HBR’s very poor gas hedges of ~40p per therm are now about to expire at the year end with current UK Gas prices at around quadruple of our fortunately soon expiring hedged pricing.
Https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/6265220/budget-tory-tax-cuts/
5 budget talking points as Tories promise tax cuts
EU, Germany and Denmark sued by oil firm over windfall tax
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/20/eu-germany-and-denmark-sued-by-oil-firm-over-windfall-tax
I disagree, and believe that we’ll see some positives on the EPL in the Autumn Statement come Monday, it’s a no brainier, let’s wait and see.
Also, OPEC+ meeting scheduled later this month (26 November):
The drop in prices builds pressure on Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of Opec+ ahead of their meeting on November 26, when they will consider how to respond to weakening oil prices and concerns that a potential stumble in global growth could hold back demand.
https://www.ft.com/content/47223166-55ba-4438-a45f-0455bcbea27e
Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Heating-Oil/Unwarranted-Demand-Pessimism-Could-Lead-To-Big-Oil-Price-Rally.html
Unwarranted Demand Pessimism Could Lead to a Big Oil Price Rally
Standard Chartered: the current price weakness is a significant undershoot, and oil markets may soon record a big rally comparable to the May bull run.
ADVFN
llef16 Nov '23 - 15:46 - 4218 of 4218
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re Harbour Gas hedges, I can't remember the units, but the hedging profile was
2023 23 units @ 41p
2024 13 units @ 74p
2025 6 units @ 97p
and the 2023 hedging represented about 66% of expected production, so HBR expected to produce say 36 units in 2023.
ADVFN
ROYALALBERT16 Nov '23 - 15:27 - 4217 of 4218
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spot gas price 116 per therm our hedges are around 40 which fall away around the next two months or so I believe, stupid valuation.
ADVFN
monkeybusiness115 Nov '23 - 08:27 - 4207 of 4207
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UK Gas price now trading at circa 120 GBp/thm (triple that of HBR’s current/soon expiring gas hedges), after all, we are also 50% Gas!
Concerns raised that Energy Profits Levy is hindering North Sea oil and gas investment
MP David Duguid is to meet with the Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury amid concerns the Energy Profits Levy (EPL) is hampering North Sea oil and gas investment.
In the House of Commons, the Banff and Buchan MP raised figures from Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) which showed more than 90 per cent of North Sea producers have cut spending which is resulting in jobs being lost.
The levy, which puts a marginal tax rate of 75 per cent on North Sea oil and gas production, is expected to remain in place for the next five years while oil and gas prices remain substantially higher – but will fall back to 40 per cent when prices consistently return to normal levels for a sustained period.
Mr Duguid praised Rishi Sunak’s announcement of the annual award of new oil and gas licences but wants to see the EPL reconsidered to safeguard investment in the North Sea.
In his question to MP Gareth Davies, the Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, Mr Duguid asked: “According to a recent survey, 90 per cent of North Sea operators have reduced spending since the Energy Profits Levy was introduced.
“I therefore welcomed recent announcements of new North Sea licences and the announcement before the summer of the Energy Security Investment Mechanism (ESIM) by which the EPL will be removed when appropriate.
Concerns remain that the EPL is affecting investor confidence more broadly, as well as leading to cutbacks to jobs and maintenance which in turn could lead to existing assets being shut down earlier than planned.
“I’m confident in the UK Government’s strategy to promote energy security and to protect these jobs and I look forward to discussing some of the more nuanced aspects of the industry and impacts of reduced investor confidence with Mr Davies.
“Particularly, in light of increased household energy prices, I understand the desire to seek energy companies to pay more – but that should not be at the expense of our energy security and our transition to net zero.
“Even before the EPL was introduced, oil and gas companies were already paying twice as much in corporation tax than other industries in this country.
“The jobs, skills and supply chains needed to manage our own domestic oil and gas supply, even as demand declines, are precisely the same skills needed to deliver a successful energy transition in this country and if we don’t maintain and support them, they will just go elsewhere and deliver another country’s energy transition.”
https://www.grampianonline.co.uk/news/concerns-raised-that-energy-profits-levy-is-hindering-north-332852/
UK falls down list of renewable energy investment attractiveness
The UK has fallen down EY’s biannual ranking of the attractiveness of renewable energy investment markets by three places to seventh.
The 62nd edition of the EY Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index (RECAI) shows that the UK has also vacated the top spot for offshore wind attractiveness, following the UK government’s CfD auction round attracting no successful bids in the space earlier this year.
The last time the country was as low as seventh in the overall rankings was in 2019 with the country dropping below the US, Germany, China, France, Australia and India. The UK peaked on the charts at third in May last year.
Ben Warren, EY Renewables Corporate Finance and RECAI Chief Editor, comments: “The UK’s recent challenges in the offshore wind sector echo a broader, global struggle.
“When auctioning contracts for offshore wind generation, governments need to reflect economic conditions in the design of the auction.
“Considering moving away from cost-only auction formats and incorporating non-price factors, such as environmental considerations and job creation, may entice developer interest and a rise in bids.”
This comes as the Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce (AGCC) has called for a new body independent of government to be set up to oversee UK energy security and the transition to net zero.
The chamber said that the energy industry is being used as a “political football” in its 38th Energy Transition Survey, published on Tuesday.
However, the AGCC survey found optimism is increasing about the Aberdeen region becoming a globally recognised renewable energy hub.
As of October, 22% of respondents were “Extremely/very optimistic” about Aberdeen’s chances, while 59% were “Moderately/slightly optimistic.”
In addition to this, 66% of respondents agreed that energy transition credentials are critical to long-term success, however, this is down compared to April’s findings when 71% of businesses said that this was necessary.
Mr Warren added: “For the UK’s overall attractiveness as a renewables destination, there must also be a concerted effort to speed up the grid connection process.
“Current years-long waiting times are delaying the pace at which projects can begin generating power and revenue.
“Ultimately developers need to feel that prospective projects will offer a viable, timely return on investment if they’re to contribute capital to the UK’s clean energy infrastructure.”
The US, Germany and China remain at the top with the former seeing growth in its solar sector as a result of the incentives provided by the Inflation Reduction Act.
Germany remains in second position, having experienced “substantial growth” in its onshore wind sector; new capacities installed by the end of September surpass the total installed in 2022, says EY.
As for China, which finds itself remaining th
ADVFN
Onlylongterm99 Nov '23 - 16:32 - 4197 of 4206 Edit
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HBR is now a sleeping giant and undoubtedly going to be a multibagger stock here, especially from these nonsense lowball levels/valuations, DYOR.
Chamber calls for new independent body to oversee energy transition
Latest survey reveals the majority reckon no political party currently has the right policies for a successful energy transition
A new body, independent of government, should be set up to oversee UK energy security and the transition to net zero.
The business group is also repeating its call for the Energy Profits Levy - which has already resulted in the cancellation of several deals and cost several hundred jobs in the north east of Scotland - to be scrapped, or reformed with a meaningful price floor.
The report - which is sponsored by KPMG and ETZ - shows that government policy remains the biggest factor determining future activity in the UK energy sector, with more than half of those surveyed stating that no party currently has the right policies to support a successful energy transition.
Reducing access to investment capital and funding is negatively impacting activity, specifically internationally, although nearly all respondents still believe that Aberdeen and the north east will play a leading role in providing the UK's energy transition.
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/harbour-energy-lon-hbr-knows-052650460.html
Have Oil Traders Misread Saudi Arabia's Production Cut Commitment?
I have said it many times before in these pages and will no doubt say it many times in the future too, but it is often the case that a traded instrument moves based more on market mood and sentiment than on any hard facts. For traders, “facts” are open to interpretation, and how they are interpreted decides what impact they have on price. However, moods change, and there are reasons to believe that the pessimism around crude that traders are currently exhibiting may be about to shift.
Last weekend, the Saudi government reiterated its commitment to voluntary crude output cuts of 1 million barrels a day, saying that they would continue until at least the end of the year. That is a fact that, on the surface, would seem to be very bullish for oil. Tight supply was the theme in the market from June to September as crude climbed by over thirty percent, so a confirmation of tight supply going forward should be bullish, right?
So, what has changed? Why is what should be bullish news prompting selling?
It is all to do with that malleability of “facts” that I mentioned above. The fact is that the Saudis are continuing with reduced production. But, in the current environment, that is being interpreted as sending a bearish message. “Why would they do that?” is the question being asked, and the most popular answer is because they are worried about a global recession and a big drop in demand for oil as a result.
It is possible the Saudis are thinking that way, but they first cut output in July. Back then, with a different mood in the market, the million barrel/day reduction in crude supply was seen as what it theoretically should be, supportive of oil prices. Very few people thought that the Saudis were cutting their output because they were worried about the future. They didn’t overthink things; they just assumed that the Saudis were trying to force prices higher. The new interpretation, that it is a product of fear, falls afoul of Occam’s razor, a philosophical and mathematical construct that states that the most obvious answer is almost always correct. It is, in effect, a fancy way of saying “If it looks like a duck…”, and the commitment to maintaining lowered output levels looks, walks, and quacks like an attempt to put upward pressure on prices.
The Saudis and their OPEC+ partners have obvious reasons for wanting to see oil prices higher. At some point before too long, the reality of tight supply in the physical market has to have an impact. When it does, the current popularity of short positions could cause a rush to the exit that speeds up and exaggerates the bounce, so trading with a long bias for a while is probably advisable and if we do get to around $70, I will be buying crude futures and/or some oil stocks in anticipation of a reversal.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Have-Oil-Traders-Misread-Saudi-Arabias-Production-Cut-Commitmen
Unlike previous days, absolutely huge trading volumes here today (circa 11M HBR shares traded) with November a key month for HBR which IMO, now has potential to be a multibagger from here onwards.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/HBR/harbour-energy-plc/company-page
Aberdeen's Wood on track buoyed by 'significant' contract wins with likes of Shell and Harbour Energy
Key contract wins in the third-quarter included a new strategic partnership with Harbour Energy for its UK North Sea operations, which with associated contracts for five years (with five one-year extensions) is worth around $330 million. Wood, which employs getting on for 36,000 people worldwide, also sealed a global framework agreement with energy major Shell to deploy its expertise in decarbonisation, digitalisation and asset life extension. The order book at September 30 was sitting at some $5.9bn, flat on a comparable basis to the year before.
https://www.scotsman.com/business/aberdeens-wood-on-track-buoyed-by-significant-contract-wins-with-likes-of-shell-and-harbour-energy-4403619
Shell sues Greenpeace for $2.1mn in one of largest claims against group
https://www.ft.com/content/3041e388-f1a5-4bee-a756-fa58e8fd639c