focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
And Mexico’s richest man so far buying +5% of HBR along with a big chunk of Zama field via Talos Mexico, all while we await further updates from Indonesia, Mexico, Norway,……as the Mubadala find/news was a big one for SE Asia, and this is not even considering M&A for a debt free and incredibly undervalued/oversold Harbour Energy, IMHO.
Layaran find confirms Indonesia as deepwater hotspot, consultant claims
https://www.offshore-mag.com/deepwater/article/14303005/layaran-find-confirms-indonesia-as-deepwater-hotspot-consultant-claims
Festive cheer for Indonesia's upstream sector
https://www.upstreamonline.com/opinion/festive-cheer-for-indonesias-upstream-sector/2-1-1574164
Good Posts/Trail here, thanks for sharing the info provided.
£GBP is also weaker today Versus the $USD.
Oil Prices Poised to Bounce Back in 2024
Top U.S. banks forecast a median Brent price of $85 for 2024, citing demand growth and potential supply disruptions.
Crude oil prices are at lows not seen in months. There seem to be few factors capable of changing that. Yet commodity analysts seem to be more bullish when it comes to 2024.
The key to that bullishness is demand. Even after the IEA projected faster than previously expected demand growth for next year, traders took note and analysts wrote notes. Per these notes, the five top U.S. banks expect a median Brent price of $85 for 2024. And that’s without any major supply disruption.
The other part of the price equation—demand—is rather bullish. OPEC expects it to expand by 2.2 million barrels daily next year, and even the International Energy Agency, a chronic bear lately thanks to its transition focus, said in its latest Oil Market Report that oil demand will grow faster than previously expected in 2024. The revision is equal to 130,000 bpd, bringing the total demand growth rate, per the IEA, to 1.1 million bpd—half of what OPEC has forecast.
The IEA attributed its revised forecast to a better economic outlook and lower oil prices, which traditionally spur greater demand for the commodity. The agency is not so impressed by non-OPEC supply growth, although it does expect non-OPEC producers to add 1.2 million bpd to global supply, covering the projected demand growth plus change.
All this makes for a very neat 2024 concerning oil prices. Asia is once again expected to shoulder the bulk of demand growth, led by China and India. Disappointment may be on its way as some expectations of Chinese demand prove to have been overly optimistic, adding weight to prices.
On the other hand, the increasingly frequent news of ship attacks in the Red Sea by the Yemeni Houthis and, most recently, by pirates that seized a Malta-flagged bulk carrier bound for Turkey could turn out to be bullish for prices, even though oil tankers have not yet been attacked.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Poised-to-Bounce-Back-in-2024.html
Thanks @bonker99, $110 Brent average in 2024 will do nicely, I’m also in the $100+ camp for PoO next year (especially with US SPR at historic lows) but even lot more bullish on gas for next year and beyond, great discovery announcement by HBR/Mubadala today.
@bonker99, what do you estimate for Brent average in 2024?? Thanks.
Couple more interesting articles (both out today) regarding HBR:
Harbour Energy "pleased" by Indonesia gas discovery
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/commodity/WTI-2355639/news/Harbour-Energy-pleased-by-Indonesia-gas-discovery-45597445/
Harbour Energy takes option on Noble jackup
https://splash247.com/harbour-energy-takes-option-on-noble-jackup/
Share Price here will likely gain momentum and “significantly” rise as the day/week progresses.
Outstanding update, finally, and now hopefully many more positives ahead.
HBR Carlos Slim (Bloomberg) article in full via Yahoo Finance for anyone without Bloomberg access:
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/carlos-slim-builds-bet-firms-141436159.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFF-j3GQQS4291DD5PZv-qZbVMFLoDZGWQo900agRhSoF_Cwr8L13surgEH-CIDX2oCe4TyeVSDBCSEaxTvAYIG65Zm4BCrw9-1XXu88KkVUj4KkMfX75yFSMBC1XqqOJMdBA3pnwkVgc6TxcQ8cboDNDYdJnOPj1UzO8hJx6YEq
Very Nice UT/Buy at the close, hopefully setting the scene for next week and beyond.
Oil prices are undoubtedly manipulated (and even more so during this administration) but with SPR at historic lows along with continuing OPEC+ cuts this can only succeed for a limited period making PoO like a coiled spring about to jump at any moment.
ENERGY VOICE
Fitch downgrades Petrofac credit rating following share price trouble
Credit ratings agency Fitch has downgraded its assessment of North Sea operator Petrofac (LON: PFC) to a ‘B-‘ in the latest sign of financial trouble at the firm.
Fitch said its downgrade of Petrofac reflects “significant deterioration in the group’s liquidity position”.
Compared to sector peers Fitch rated Petrofac’s business profile as significantly weaker than Italian firm Saipem (BIT: SPM) and Aberdeen-headquartered Wood Group (LON: WG).
According to Fitch, a B- rating for a firm indicates a “material default risk is present, but a limited margin of safety remains”.
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/543622/fitch-downgrades-petrofac-credit-rating-following-share-price-trouble/
I agree with your outlook bonker99, HBR has significant internal and external potential (now also with no debt, and much improved hedging), I expect news on all fronts (including M&A and drilling results on assets) in coming weeks/months, IMHO, HBR is the most undervalued FTSE Oiler around today and with right news here, can easily more than double its market cap/SP from this nonsense valuation.
Following on the latest HBR Trading and Operations update, I strongly believe that we can expect potentially game changing positive updates here via both organic growth (Outstanding "International [and UK] growth projects advancements") and Inorganic opportunities ("Material M&A") in coming weeks ahead.
"Material M&A" now looks well set/positioned with lower O&G prices and having timely sold the non-core Vietnam assets; HBR clearly looks efficiently managed, amazingly has no debt, expiring hedges (along with Tolmount East production now underway), cost management initiatives also in place, as I've said before, HBR has potential to be a Multibagger stock from these levels.
@ancient, just noticed this/your great post with which I fully agree.
Mike, I found this Bloomberg article interesting on same subject.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-12-01/oil-prices-face-wild-swings-with-bot-traders-driving-the-market?leadSource=uverify%20wall
“Oil’s Wild Ride Is Driven by a Disruptive Band of Bot Traders”
An opaque group of algorithmic money managers have seized control of the oil market.
Trading oil has perhaps never been more of a roller coaster ride than it is today.
Just in the past two months, prices threatened to reach $100 per barrel, only to whipsaw into the $70s. On one day in October, they swung as much as 6%. And so far in 2023, futures have lurched by more than $2 a day 161 times, a massive jump from previous years.
Means someone(s) slowly loading up here on the very cheap!
Https://www.portstrategy.com/environment-and-sustainability/partnering-up-on-carbon-capture/1489693.article
Partnering up on carbon capture
Associated British Ports has entered into an exclusive commercial relationship to collaborate on the transport and storage of shipped CO2 emissions around the UK.