Member Info for alex1978uk

Napoleon Bonaparte

Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.

The ground is hard now isn't it? How many tanks have you seen bogged down in wet ground? I haven't seen any. Autumn and spring won't be frozen solid it will be wet and even harder to move over for an army with poor logistics. The general consensus is when winter comes the fighting will slow right down. The poor Russians who haven't even been rotated out yet are going to face another winter sat in a iron coffin in the cold and wet. While the drones, HAMARs and special forces make life hell for them.

As for badly led Ukrainians that's nothing compared with the terrible leadership the Russians face. At ever level. Hundreds of thousands of young men pushed over the boarder into Ukraine without even being told they were going to war. Great way to motivate your people. You'll be greeted with cheers and treated as liberators. What a load of bull. Putin probably doesn't want the troops he sent there coming home and causing trouble for him. Which is why he doesn't want to send troops from Moscow and St Peterburg. Enviable leadership qualities.

Optimistic view but I hope your right. The Ukrainians have said this morning not to expect anything to quickly. If they can retake Kherson and push further South East, Crimea could become in range of HIMARS then the Russians would have something to worry about. I think the winter will work to the Ukrainians advantage. The Russian troops are not well trained and logistics are poor. Poor weather is only going to make this worse for them.

I'm not a big fan of most western media but consider myself smart enough to make an informed decision on whats going on by reading from credible sources. You talk like there's some big conspiracy theory that keeps us in the dark and wrongly informed about whats going on in the world. That's Russia my friend. All the free press has been shut down, facebook, twitter etc etc. If Putin was so convinced hes done the right thing there wouldn't really be any need to do that,would there? Is there propaganda on both sides? Of course there is.

How exactly was the West supposed to respond to this? Do nothing? All this rubbish about NATO pushing to far east is bull shi*t#. More like the east is pushing west into NATO for protection from Russian aggression. Putin and the Kremlin coursed this mess talking about going back to spheres of influence. Who wants to be under Putin's sphere of influence? No one. Not in Belarus or anywhere else and I don't blame them. There may not be a big Ukrainian counter offensive but good luck holding the ground for ever more. More young Russians forced into the war dying for no reason.

True. They are all over social media.

If all that’s true how come 6 months into the invasion (Special Military Operation) Russia still hasn’t occupied (Liberated) all the Donbas? It’s probably all a clever distraction by Putin and his first rate armed forces before they reorg and take the whole country ?????

Its becoming more and more risky for Russia. They would have potentially used the Southern Kherson/Odessa region to start peace talks and bargain for recognition in the Donbas. Now they are diverting troops there away from the Donbas before they have even taken the whole area. If Ukraine do retake Kherson despite these reinforcements they will have weakened Russia's hand massively. Crimea will become in range with their new Western weapons. Big disaster for Russia since day one.

I don't think there's going to be much positive for Ferrexpo until there's some kind of negotiations, peace treaty, withdrawal by Russia. Hopefully that's sooner rather than later. This time next year we'll be in a totally different set of circumstances.

Sounds about right Terraplane. The Russian population is roughly spread 75% in Europe 25% in Asia. Meaning over a 100 million Russians are in Europe. They have the worlds allocation of natural resources, great scientists, their own space program etc etc. So why aren’t they an economic power in Europe like Germany is? Because the country has never been managed to anywhere near its full potential. Putin could have made these changes 20+ years ago. Stamped out corruption, developed a strong middle class. But he didn’t. He craves to be a super power on the global stage but he isn’t. Now he’s resorted to murdering people to try and project some kind of power.

As for Ukraine they can absolutely win the war given the right equipment and support. The Mujahedin beet the soviets didn’t they, the Vietnamese beat the Americans? I think Putin is a desperate man who won’t be missed by anyone.

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1263586/charlie-munger-on-the-value-of-patience

And Russia does care? They don’t even bother to repatriate their own dead boys. They’ve backed every dictator, autocrat, war lord etc since the end of the Second World War. Just to oppose the western world.

Ukraine may not be able to drive the Russians out but the Russians will only be able to hold the ground at great cost. The resistance has already started in some areas. The ones that did support Russia have had their lives and homes destroyed.

But very true this is a proxy war and I hope the Ukrainians humiliate Putin and his own people get rid of him. Sleepy Joe needs to grow a pair and give the Ukrainians what they need to finish the job. Jets, longer range weapons etc etc

Like Sergey Lavrov saying Hilter had Jewish blood or Putin saying we’re going to liberate the people of the Donbas. They must be so grateful. Comical Ali’s.

As if Putin sent tens of thousands of his troops over the boarder, left them parked up in a 40 mile convoy to get picked off by drones and anti tank weapons. Costing thousands of Russian lives and lost equipment just as a distraction to take the Donbas. If he did it was a massive failure cause he still hasn't taken the Donbas and is now struggling to muster the equipment and personnel to do so.

Putin told Macron that he wanted to take over the whole of Ukraine days after the invasion. The Russians officially told the Ukrainians we'll be in Kyiv in 12hrs and in control of the country in 36hrs. What Putin thinks his militarily is capable of and what they are actually capable of are two completely different things. If they don't take the whole of the Donbas before winter sets in both sides are going to dig in and sit tight where ever the front line may be. In the mean time more Ukrainians will get trained and equipped by the west.

It amazes me how many people I speak to in the UK believe the awful propaganda coming from the Kremlin. When the Ukrainians kick them out the Russian 'INVASION' will go down as one of the biggest military blunders in modern warfare. Obama said Russia was only a regional power and Putin didn't like it. Now we can see they're not even that.

All this boll*#ks on here about how Zelenkskyy has f#*ked up and should have negotiated with them is sh*t&. You can’t negotiate with them because nothing they say is believable. Why didn’t Russia negotiate with Ukraine? The West (USA) did well for once and stood up to him. I don’t even think he planned on invading. He just massed his troops on the border like holding a gun to your head. When no one flinched he had no choice but to send his troops over the border. How else can you explain such a military f*#k up? No air superiority! No bombarding enemy positions before you send the troops in. What a disaster.

Putins world is shrinking and he’s lashed out. No one wants to be in his so called circle of influence. No one wants to be governed by an autocrat. What ever happens in Ukraine is un winnable. If he takes the Donbas the residence will go on for ever. Probably backed by the CIA and who ever else has the balls to stand up to these dictators.

On FXPO. Long term hold. Strong balance sheet. Reconstruction. Quality product. Take over prospect. Low valuation. Good management. What’s no good like. Risk Vs Reward.

Bit of a funny coincidence that a Russian missile hit a shopping Centre in the middle of the day at the same time there was a G7 meeting. More like Putin was sending a message, I don’t give a f*#k about the so called world order, and if I want to murder people to prove a point I will. What’s any one going to do about it?

Zelenskyy summed it up well. Russia is a terrorist state. Run by an autocrat who craves nothing but power. The simple fact of the matter is he has no power. The Russian military is ****e. The Russian economy is the equivalent size of South Korea (and shrinking). Putin has had to shut down every form of free press to stop the truth getting out. Anyone and everyone in Russia with any money or an education is leaving and he couldn’t even tell his own troops they were going to war. I can’t wait for the new world order Putin and Xi have in mind.

All this boll*#ks on here about how Zelenk

Sounds like they're doing well;

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-economic-slump-will-wipe-out-15-years-gains-iif-2022-06-08/

The only miscalculation made has been by Putin. Hes that deluded and misinformed he thought his rabble of and army would ride into Kyiv, over throw the government and take charge of the country in days. When in reality they couldn't even maintain their army 50 miles away from their own border, or border with Belarus. And then got slaughtered.

When the US & UK invaded Iraq if we'd got beat back from Baghdad, failed to take Basra, lost 15000 - 30000 people dead, and were now 110 days into the war, fighting a war of attrition over a few towns and cities no one outside the country has ever heard of would you consider that a success? And saying Saddam massively miscalculated? No wonder Putin has shut down every form of free press and social media he can do. What happens when Putin has to start rotating his troops out of Ukraine? Some of them were sat on the border last November. Probably better off leaving them in Ukraine to get killed. He wouldn't want them coming home and telling the Russian people what its really like on the ground.

As for sanctions they'll take time. If there was a short fast way to get Russia to collapse or withdraw then they would have already done it. It will take years to diversify away from Russian energy but we eventually will. The west needs to keep the pressure on. Even if Putin dies or stands down there will be no going back to business as usually without some kind of radical change in government there.

Putin needs to except the fact Russia is not a superpower. They are the eleventh largest economy in the world and shrinking. There armed forces are 40 years behind the west. 50% of the wealth in the country is controlled by about 135 Oligarchs. The whole country of around 145m holds less private wealth than Sweden with a population of 10.5m. All he can do is threaten the world with Nuclear weapons.

Slava Ukraini

Even if Germany/France pressure Ukraine into giving up the Donbas there’s no way it’s going back to business as usual with Russia. Not while Putin and his cronies are around anyway. What’s the next G20 going to be like? All handshakes and smiles with Putin! Let’s put the past behind us! If Putin had been successful and over run Ukraine in days he’d have been stood in Beijing by now talking about the new world order.

Best we can hope for is if OPEC increase production and bring down the price of oil. If not Q4 onwards is going to be grim. Airlines my rebound over the summer holidays but as soon as that’s over people are going to start feeling the pinch.

AMHO

Should have sent them months ago and the MIGs.

I’m in your camp equanimity. Something has to give in this conflict sooner or later. Russia cannot sustain these losses for a long period of time. A third of their ground forces have been rendered ineffective in 70 days of war. Thousands dead and thousands of peace’s of heavy equipment destroyed. Another six months and they’ll have nothing left.

Putins days must be numbered. How can he show his face on the world stage now? Surely even the Chinese must now see him as a liability?

By all account they are running low on missiles. I read something saying a large Ukrainian offensive is likely end of June/July when they are trained up on foreign equipment etc. We will see. Looks like a bargain to me.