Member Info for AIMing_high

They’re not listed as a holder anymore.

Iran should be huge. I mean mentally big. Gargantuan. There should be the first airport, then as you elegantly say a foot in the door of the other 59. Then there are security options within the country.....not to mention the global scope (mainly Africa) after the news spreads that’s WSG can handle this. There are two caveats 1: they have not **** it up....but history shows they’ve done a decent job in SL. B: the market doesn’t care as it doesn’t see it happening at all. The % probability being priced in is so low that it makes little difference if it’s an NPV project of €100m or €5 billion. That said, i think it will land and that’s why I have more here than is healthy

Gapping out!!

There goes the nice right spread we’ve been seeing recently.

I think you have some very valid points there. My take from the AGm was that any contracts in the pipeline were much closer in scale to SL than Iran....that is a real outlier.....i guess because any other country in the world of comparable size would have a much more "reputable" player.

i still feel that a fully functioning Iran deal should be worth 100-150p, and for some reason i only have the Africa MOUas pushing us to 20-25p....let's hope i'm being overly pessimistic. but hey, can't sniff at doubling my recent additions.

when it was 30p we didn't know it was Iran - that country would put some people off - and given what happened this year they'd have been right to be put off.

market won't give any credit to Africa until it's been signed....we've had years of this anticipation and because it's never materialised into anything substantial the market fully discounts. not saying it's right, but can see why.

i'd argue that this is more or less un-investable from an institutional investor perspective...it's pretty much like gambling, try getting that past the investment committee, or explaining it to your clients.

the downside is clearly the risk that:
- Iran pulls out / SPV fails to help us / sanctions increase to include us fully.
- The Africa deals comes to nothing as their government suddenly decides they don't have the money / want to keep it in country / have a friend who can do it for less.
- the company we just bought has hidden horrors in it's accounts
- we get no more decent sized tech contracts and become cash flow negative.
- there has been a n accounting error / fraud and we have no money and need a raise

i don't think these are likely, but there is always downside - especially in AIm.

Brexit you say? news to me....do tell more......the name sounds rather light heart and fun

Is it the snow? Always make me feel chipper....alas he has rain and slush for my cycle in to work. I’m feeling more positive about Africa than Iran currently. Not overly worried that Aidan won’t work, just see it slipping into Q2/3. I think that’s africa can’t be far off, and our cash position buys us a little time. Happy days.

The German Foreign Minister described it as "imminent" a couple of days ago......if i check back on my WSG translation book that should be.......uumm....some point after 2020!!

How frustrating when you buy at 11p and 10.7p and the next day you can get it for 10.2! still, 0.8p here or there should mean nothing when we're in high double digits.

Mike, that's another thing with CFDs, you seem to pay the advertised offer, no chance of getting within the spread like you can on physical shares with a decent broker.

Mike - you're thinking of spread betting. CFD's have the same economic outcomes as the physical shares, they are delta one products. i.e. if the share goes up 3% then so does the value of the CFD. if they go down 7% so the CFDs. if they pay a 3p dividend then the CFD holder receives a 3p dividend.

the only difference to holding a share is that you have leverage - with my current IG holding i pay 40% margin (this will increase if i buy many more - but i won't!) - so if i buy £1k of shares then i only see £400 go out of my account, then the margin changes as the price of the underlying share moves.

i think spread betting involves the broker taking some much more sophisticated hedging with long and short positions of their customers. i don't you can have a naked short in WSG on IG......shorting is much harder than most people on here seem to think

True, kind of. But IG would have to buy the shares to hedge out their exposure. otherwise they’d be in serious trouble if this thing flew. They’re not in the business of taking market positions, they make money on the spread and commission. In the past there are often corresponding trades in the market that I assume is then.

Something odd going on today. There seems to be more people claiming buys than those that went through the market. I bought 10k and then 12k in CFDs through IG (am then pm (when foxy failed to dissuade me)) and neither showed up. Maybe. Some brokers have stock that they are willing to let go. Not sure they should be prop trading mind.

i'm hoping you mean 2019??? bit of a Freudian slip maybe!

i did indeed ask, so thanks for the response:

Africa doesn’t happen - that's the key risk i see (a tail risk, but a risk nonetheless)
Trump hangs around. - i don't think that impacts the SP as Iran is currently not priced in
No more tech so revenues halve - that's one i highlighted and agree with, but i guess more of a whole year issue than a short term (Q1 or H1).
The anonyMoU’s stay that way - i'm not adding here in any realistic hope of other MOUs - only the Africa and Iran are remotely on my radar.

so basically you agree with me in terms of teh key risks

So my current thinking is that this share is cheap, the Iran deal is simply not priced in, they are more or less EBITDA break-even (for a company where interest, depreciation and amortisation aren't particularly large) and have a new African contract that is apparently signed by WSG on the instruction of the client.

so what is the argument against a short term trade to buy now and expect it to go up on the Africa MOU or failing that Iran?

downsides that i see are that without a recurring $4.5m scanner deal equivalent then no longer break-even, the Iran deal falls through and the negative sentiment hits the share price (even though i don't think it's at all priced in) , or the Africa deal falls through - which seems odd given the client instruction to sign.

can someone please give me a valid reason not to top up please.

thanks in advance

very few i'd say - 13k buy at the start of business and then less than 130k sold and another 28k bought......very light trading for an RNS day.

from that RNS you'd expect the Africa deal to be signed by the client any day.....obviously not before Thursday or they'd have delayed the Trading Update if that was a possibility.

i meant to reply to you the other day to say that i didn't think there would be any figures. there is no benefit to management putting out figures as it just gets us all guessing as to where it could be.

i know that they no longer refer to SL by name, i wonder if they'll ever actually announce the name of this African country or we'll just have to figure it out ourselves. they have become increasingly secretive with what they share with the market.

good to see we're back to normal....share's now down on the day - but a lovely tight spread for once

13k buy at 11.115?