Member Info for AIMing_high

Fair points, but not going to help WSG. I was working on the fact that Iran May have to wait until the next US president, but that the African Contract and general business would have us at or above breakeven until then (this minimising dilution needs). Sadly the market clearly disagrees with me.

What are people’s thoughts about the US removing the remaining waivers for the big 6 Iranian oil purchasers? Obviously not great for Iran, but could it bring the current sanctions to an end sooner? But would that involve a regime change and thus us losing the contract? Or does it change little and we possibly are waiting on a new administration in the White House? Or it is all irrelevant as they’re going to get the contract up and running regardless of the sanctions?? I’d love it to give Trump a chance to claim victory and put an end to the sanctions as “Iran has fallen into line under sanctions pressure”......but I fear it may trundle on. (And always like to see Tumpy fail)

8.08 / 8.83. Suddenly no spread??? This thing is normally around 10%

Ned, they have informed share holders. They put it out on their website. RNS isn’t the only way to communicate with the market....especially for things that are not deemed material. I grant you that I’m surprised that they didn’t RNS it just becuase they’ve put a value on and it’s something odd inevstors to grab on to. But I maintain that any investor showing genuine interest will know about this contract without an RNS. I got alerted to it, evidently so did eskers. They put it in the public domain.

Even the $4.5m deal only moved the shares 20% on the day back in March 18

They’ve released it to the market through their website. So there can be no concerns over the Iran deal.....it’s not like they’re trying to keep it under the radar. Maybe the NOMAD said no need. Anyone invested will find out about this quickly enough. These contracts don’t tend to move the SP anyway.

Maybe that’s the level they now consider material. The last one they published the value was the $4.5m ME contract.

Surely this fluctuates around this sort of price (as you say) but until they release the results of the 3rd May meeting? Then they will do a placing once the shares have jumped on good news. If they tank then they’ll maybe sell the drug onto someone else with deeper pockets and motif can fold. But I see the only major (double digit pence) move being on the results of the FDA meeting. They won’t raise cash before then, and there won’t be much information in the public domain post meeting pre minutes.

Is it me is that the first time in a while that they’ve put a monetary amount on a contract announcement?

Yes. It means someone bought or sold 6 shares

Some fair points, but I’d argue with ii argument. The institutional investors that were invested belived that it would get approved, a whole bunch weren’t invested, so one can only assume that they didn’t believe it would get approval (or at least not enough to take a punt)

Hahaha. Very good

Good to see some sanity on the Board today. People who claim it’s 90% or (as pre the FDA announcement in Feb were saying), 100% should really be leveraging up masssively and investing nearly all their money here if they truly believed that. It would be probably the best investment opportunity in the world if it were true. AIM may not be a totally efficient market, but it wouldn’t miss price risk quite this badly. A 90% probability event wouldn’t make the shares multi bag when it happened. So either it’s not >50% chance or it’s not increasing to over 40p. I suspect is the probability that’s wrong

I did some research in the past. I’ve been invested in a very small way in AMP since before the float of Motif. I’m saying that I don’t use this BB for research. I use RNS, company reports and the odd broker research note where I can get it. I think it’s always been pretty binary, and I don’t think that anything is going to come out between now and the FDA meeting that will inform us materially. The difference between gambling and investing AIM is pretty small. You often have a binary outcome, are on the wrong side of asymmetric information and the upsides can be multiples without you having done anything more than put some money at risk.

Read, my strategy is to invest in a comfy, hope it makes money, and often try to hold back the tears when it inevitably doesn’t. My motive for posting was to engage with a rampant ramper and tbh to try to wind them up a bit. As I said, rampers are way more dangers than derampers in my mind. I also don’t think that these boards ever move the share price so I wouldn’t be trying to down play this share a: becuase I own it and 2: becuase it wouldn’t make any difference to the price. I also haven’t figured out how to short aim stocks. And it would be ludicrously risky with this one. There may may be a good chance of it going to zero, but the potentioa loss if the FDA approved would be huge

I’ll be honest with you and say that I’ve seen ivy’s Posts and haven’t bothered looking into them. I see this as a binary bet. FDA approval or bust. I can’t imagine that any research can persuade me that the FDA approval is any more likely and I’ve decided that I’m happy to risk my current holding. The fact that the company are presenting gave me added confidence. But other than that much of this seems to be conjecture and hope. After all, this board was hugely confident that the FDA would approve last month based on some plenty of “factual” research.

What you like me to add other than thought? Are other people offering facts??

Ian, it was a serious question. I thought I’d try to engage with ST and see what his/her thoughts are other than mindless ramping.

ST, do you have a target in mind for reducing? Or are you in this until after the (potential) approval by the FDA?

No one said it was a 5% chance. Plus, I don’t really trust % on this board. I took exception to someone claiming it was 100% going to pass. I managed to talk them down to 99.9% It 100% didn’t pass.