Member Info for Agricore

Now at $8.75 NAV so has achieved a 45% uplift in 9 months. The new investments look very interesting with good potential

128koz @ 3.1g/t should realise a basket price of around $1800 and AISC of conservatively around $450 (perhaps less because it's open pit) so this will drive an annual EBITDA of around $172m (for MT alone). And this is phase 1 only. And not flanks, not Rosgeo.

WK numbers would be on top.

Fantastic news.

Presentation from Black Rock about BRLA:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeHxNiy0Rv4

NAV growth (1 year to Sep 2021) 17.2%
Last NAV £4.06
Discount to NAV 10.2%
Yield 5.7% (Dividend 1.25% of NAV per quarter)
Analysis from Kepler Positive: "given the low valuations in the regions and the tailwinds towards commodities, we believe could offer a potentially attractive entry point"
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=1323-14925587-5G24RUCT0QGRSOMJQ94KIIOQB8

BRLA has a discount control mechanism. This includes a tender offer to buy a quarter of the shares in 2022 at close to net asset value if: 1) the trust underperforms the benchmark index by more than 1 per cent per annum over the four financial years to 31 December 2021 or 2) the discount has on average exceeded 12 per cent over the same four years. This mechanism should help to put a floor under the discount in the near term.

Bull Case: Reflation and rising commodity prices make the bull case for Latin America
Bear Case: Political risk is significant with fiercely contested elections

Mac when you Guident will be the joker don’t you see a risk that a lot of businesses will just do what they do themselves? Also isnt the autonomous delivery market some way off? Thirdly, are there any competitors to guident? No competitors can mean there’s no market. I want to be convinced to its potential and wanted to know your thoughts to these points. Gla

Your analysis is outstanding. Why aren’t you on Bloomberg being interviewed?

Meanwhile actual POLY investors have shares in a strong, resilient, highly profitable, low AISC, high ESG credentials that yields over 6% and has exciting future investment plans.

Dont think shorting this share will go well from here for you but hope you don’t lose too much or if you’re a bot then I’m wasting oxygen and you don’t breathe.

Anyone who’s looked properly at the future potential of each of the portfolio would be mad (or hard up) to sell any of their shares any time soon.

I’m looking forward to the Bellescura update Monday. Should move this up some more.

An IPO for Lucyd will be Q2 2022. At that point the progress in NA market will be visible and the IPO capital raise will be to drive the global (geographic) expansion as well as well as to extend Lucyd’s “smart” capabilities.

I remain deeply unhappy with how the TPG bod have behaved during the SAG saga. For that reason my heart tells me To support a motion from SAG.

But as to the 6.5p “fair value”…… I’ve been crunching some numbers. Right now it’s a £42m cap. Cenkos predicted in June 21 (under cartmell’s leadership) profit of £4.2m rising to £5.1 for 2022.

Have a think about that. A PE of 10 dropping to 8 next year in what is an attractive fast growing and (literally) defensive sector!!!!!!!!!!

No wonder SAG want TPG at that price! Assuming the (as yet) unshared “extensive plans” in an RNS from TPG announced that they’d drive cost savings and increase revenue are **NOT** factored into Cenkos’ analysis. And to be fair the new CEO seems more credible than Cartmell.

However this goes For SAG it’s a win win - if TP succeed their 24% stake will rise in value and if they don’t they get to pick this up at a snip and weave their magic.

The 14th sep update should give a clue as to which way it’s going…..

I appreciate ALM have written off their investment in Spin but we don't yet know what the final status of Spin Memory will be.... ARM are not an insignificant backer of Spin and perhaps the IP is worth something. Perhaps worth quite a lot? Spin did "tape out" their demonstration module so clearly achieved something. If they have a way through Moore's Law (as the theory was set out to be) that provide faster/better semiconductors that could be attractive. Semiconductors aren't exactly a dying industry are they?

We will see.

Results and increased dividend are very welcome news. Quality share which has a habit of not disappointing.

SAG’s RNS leaves the TPG BOD looking very silly, churlish and frankly incompetent.

I, for one, would be interested In seeing the TPG “detailed review” ahead of the vote and judging that as the basis for whether to vote for or against the 2 Directors being voted out.

I am not a geologist. So when an investment decision relies on understanding phrases like "we detected the formation of magmatic sulphides" I wondered what that meant.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987111000429

This is quite an interesting article that starts to put it in context. I'd bought Kavango as a Copper play but it seems to me that yes that could be part of it but the PGM and Nickel could be just as exciting.

The question is now whether to top up following the taper tantrum/Afghan drop, or be happy with my existing nice holding. Is anyone else having these thoughts?

Hi all, HM Govt announced their hydrogen strategy today and will be releasing their biomass strategy soon.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1011283/UK-Hydrogen-Strategy_web.pdf

Key Point (for Eqtec):
1. Relevant programme is Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)
Biomass gasification with carbon capture and storage will generate -168.7 gCO2e/MJ H2 and will generate 473MW of power but not until the 2030s (??!!):
They believe the pricing will look like:
2030:
£95/MWh (excl. carbon)
£41/MWh (incl. carbon)
2050:
£89/MWh (excl. carbon)
-£28/MWh (incl. carbon)

Further innovation and developments expected in 2020s. Developing position further in forthcoming Biomass Strategy

So nothing too dramatic but should help raise the profile of businesses like Eqtec.

Today's RNS is the most enthusiastic RNS I've ever seen from TPG! But can they apply that level of enthusiasm to turning around this business which was a downhole compressor for oil producers, a heat exchange partner to spiro, no a marine specialist for naval forces, a gas specialist, no a hydrogen train expert, no a space tech play, a military consultancy.......

I've remained invested here for over 10 years but it's been an awful ride of numerous false dawns and poor comms from management. The recent results being a prime example. Did anyone expect such a poor result?

Maybe the new CEO can do better and will do better. But I remain to be convinced.

The idea of takeover could work well too. But at 5.8p a share they can b****r off.

You think you have “a feel” for the markets and then something irrational happens which baffles you.

Today’s dropped KAV being a great example. I’ve topped up on the drop.

Covid 19 first infects the back of the throat then moves to the lungs after 2-3 days.

Entirely conceivable that a daily dentyl keeps the doctor away! So, no, we’re not going to see non-stop mouth swillers although I find the mental picture amusing. I might see if Harry Enfield wants a bit of work.

In my own in vivo life I’ve used dentyl daily and not had covid even when people in the same house had it……

If they can make a “clinically proven” claim then that would be dynamite for the share price…. We’ll see.

Yesterday’s drop is a great buying opportunity:

1. Hand sanitiser gel is a low margin and over supplied category. Its loss will not be missed.

2. China sales were affected by lockdowns in H1. But also because the distributor was on hold due to bad debt. That’s now resolved and we should see an improvement going forward. Western brands are highly regarded in the Chinese market. Also see point 3.

3. Following the successful in vitro study the in vivo one is being peer reviewed and will be published shortly. I believe the ST article will follow this. If it shows what we are expecting from the in vivo (protective evidence against contracting covid 19) then the resulting sales boost could be substantial even eye watering. Not least in China. And not least the large number of people who dislike wearing masks but value their safety.

4. Retail coverage continues to build - b&m, savers, boots, tesco, Amazon.

5. Product innovation and synergies in category level eg half price dentyl reformulation which has not cannabalised normal dentyl sales. Combining halitosis and mouth wash products is another example.

6 crucially predicted 2021 ebitda is on course to be higher despite the china/hand gel disappointments due to BBI and Helsinn and 2022 growth in ebitda is predicted to be over £6m so a 50% profit growth over 2 years.

7. Further acquisitions to follow. Credit line available. Proven ability to drive synergies in acquisitions via product innovation, cross sell into new customers, and geographies.

8. No current debt.

9. Able to expand production in Italy and via new bbi facility

I’ve averaged down and think the drop is a huge overreaction. Do some research such as look at the cenkos update and perhaps you’ll agree.

Gla

Fair one! https://www.bushveldminerals.com/directors/

I ponder BMN's disposal of Afritin. Why? Bushveld have a strong cash balance and while, yes, they are investing into their plants and into producing a vanadium electrolyte factory, I don't believe they needed the cash.

1. BMN are genuinely stupid?
2. Bad Blood? Afritin was spun out of Bushveld
3. They think the tin price will crash
4. They know or think they know something negative about ATM
5. They are accelerating their investments?
6. Something else.

The bad blood argument seems to make sense..... as a BMN shareholder I'm annoyed they'd sell valuable shares at a knock down price. As an ATM holder I'm pleased the selling pressure has ended and I expect we'll see good progress upwards from here on in.

GLA and we'll be raising a tinny in due course