Member Info for Agricore

Or your nephew could get a fake tan to restore his visibility?

Hi Mullins, I've topped up too.

1. Market value at 63% discount to book value (£5m vs £16m Net Assets)
2. Extreme negative sentiment - despair - makes this look oversold
3. Tungsten prices $320/Mtu and forecast to reduce gently... this is 40-50% over last year's prices
4. Tin is over $39000/Mtu and should remain elevated.... this is over 90% over last year's prices
5. Production "should" improve (this point is the contentious one):
2021 Q1 - 196000T Mined -> 80 Tonnes Tungsten and Tin
2021 Q2 - 231000T -> 120T
2021 Q3 - 280000T -> 192T
2021 Q4 - ???????? -> Was forecast to be 258T-358T (Yearly 650-750T)
Actual is going to be 128T (Full Year 520T)

They say 2022 will be better. So if they can achieve 1032T in 2022 (258Tx4 Quarters) the economics get quite exciting. Revenue should be around é11m and with a GP of around é5m and NP of é2.5m. This places it on a PE of 2 for 2022 at the current share price. If they can achieve a run rate of 1400T-1600T then the PE drops to about 0.8. So I can see where Shard sees fair value at around 20p on this share. The debt is an issue but becomes much more manageable once profits are rolling in.

There are risks here - but they have proven with a fair wind that they can have a good quarter, so with the recent placing from ICD at a ***50% premium*** to today's share price, some expertise from a "Freddy Dodge" guy, and the continued positive outlook for these metals I think there's a lot to like here. GLA and a happy 2022 to all the doublyers invested here.

I have a huge respect for Cathie Wood and I understand her thesis but on inflation vs deflation I think her analysis is flawed.

1. As LordLoadsOfLolly says energy knocks on to everything else - and it's the SECONDARY inflation of knock on effects that feeds through - like Newton's 3rd Law - something keeps going until something else acts on it to slow it down. I do believe that technological progress will win through eventually but don't see that happening in 2022 or 2023 so we have at least 2 years of inflationary momentum.
2. The other aspect that perhaps is caused in part by energy costs growing but is more than this is are materials. The scarcity of supply, the increasing difficulty of supply, disruption (through covid but also political issues - e.g. Kazakhstan today) all drive material prices up. This has the same secondary effect as energy. Will technological innovation help here? Yes to some extent - techniques to discover and extract materials more efficiently are growing - but again this is a mid-term.
3. Demographics - I think we are reaching a point where we can't increase populations inexorably and instead birth control is increasingly important as he head towards 2050. The implication is that this also impacts supply and therefore is inflationary
4. Wages. Related to this, I think the major secondary effect will be expectations of inflation and wage growth. Watching CNBC there's been (positive) references to a lack of expectations. I just think that's out of the window now and the genie is out of the bottle. In a tight labour market if you don't get a decent pay rise your firm's competitor will. I don't see how "deflationary effects" can/will happen in labour - at least not in the post Brexit UK, nor in the heavily Trump influenced US nor even to the same extent elsewhere due to the ongoing pandemic reducing migration. Or if there will be again this will again take time.

Overall I've positioned for inflation and unfortunately that's meant reducing a lot of my technology stocks, despite my optimism for the long run.

L3 - I think the market is proving you wrong, actually.

Look back over this thread - all the analysis is there - if you only took the time to look. Your throw away analysis of
"it failed to deliver the level of sales and EBIDTA that were announced at the time, etc" fails to consider some simple facts:

1. VLG has a solid track record of growing profitability in the past. A solid track record of acquiring companies and adding value to those through product innovation, leveraging new geographic markets, cross selling new products to existing customers = PROVEN SYNERGY
2. The China Distributor Issue and the Tom/Richard/Harry making Hand Sanitiser issue - whilst both unfortunate - didn't justify the ENORMOUS overreaction of people throwing the Baby Out with The Bath Water...... The value on offer here is incredible. The destocking is temporary & appointing a new distributor is fixable.
3. If you re-read VLG's latest trading update there are nuggets in there for the future. Especially in the performance and progress of the acquisitions. I think we will see positive news in due course.
4. The BOD have bought £100k of shares recently and have substantial "skin in the game"

Considering I bought in at over 90p on ST's "tip" I'm delighted to now be back in profit and looking forward to VLG's update and continuing re-rate. I wish all Venturers a happy 2022.

8.3% according to Dividend Max.

10% bounce just now - someone knows something

I am happy to continue to hold this but I think we are not going to see spectacular moves in PGMs this year (either up or down). I appreciate there's some movement in Rhodium recently. There are strong demand and supply moves that seem to be counteracting one another so having a decent dividend tick, low P/B and P/E with strong medium term fundamentals is a very good reason to be invested here in what could be an uncertain 2022 imo. GLA.

Makes no sense.

Adjusted income can be used either to reward shareholders or to invest in growth - or a combination.

So we have a mining opportunity that requires investment to grow (plenty of metal in the ground but no decent mining results - yet). We have EUA2 to invest in hydrogen production from the ground up.

Grow both now with just 20% of adjusted income?

It makes no sense.

I've sold 90% of my EUA holding following the EUA2 announcement. I'm 90% sure of disappointment ahead, but I hope I'm wrong. GLA.

For the purposes of comparison high voltage transmission is 98% efficient (2% transmission losses on average) and low voltage about 96%. Interconnectors have proven to be effective for the UK. Perhaps a global interconnection is the future? The IEA are already focused on regional interconnection: https://www.iea.org/reports/large-scale-electricity-interconnection

For BMN this remains positive for flow batteries - transmitted power still needs pooling and VFRB is a logical means to do this.

I am genuinely surprised that BMN hasn't (YET) benefited from the relative value of vanadium versus lithium in 2022: $16/KG for vanadium pentoxide vs $42/KG for Lithium Carbonate.

The HASN'T YET is why I've topped up here. The relative value and the total cost of ownership, and ability to rent vanadium will all play to make flow batteries do well going forwards in my opinion. I don't see Lithium falling in either the short or medium term as EV demand, energy storage and the increasing importance of electrification will drive it inexorably upwards.

Meanwhile I am hopeful that the continuing reduced cost of production and economies of scale will mean BMN has turned a corner on its prior loss making. I would however like to see some actual numbers over its electrolyte plant. All we know is there's a market opportunity and that they are building something. Far too vague for my liking.

Hi Jim, I think in the short/medium term we'll see a similar drive to what has been touted in the North Sea - extraction using electrical and renewable electricity. It is commendable, furthermore, that DEC have taken the initiative on controlling methane. This is a major ESG issue and DEC are the first that I've seen that have taken this step in a concerted and major way.

Hi Mer, No I didn't as the proportion of KDNC in my portfolio was already large. I go back to the days of REM (it was REM for 4 years so I think I've held this for almost 10 years) and could be described as a LTSH.

I am relieved that this will go back to break even (for me) and beyond. In my opinion Amapa and the BOD's focus on Amapa has truly made this a success. Despite being in the right place with the right sort of stakes at the right time I don't see that the BOD created value for quite a number of years - but have improved.

I am glad I kept faith with this share, and that this has an exciting 2022 ahead of it. Over 10 years I am far more mature and spend far time looking at fundamentals and much less looking at "stories" and "narrative". The good thing here was the narrative and the fundamentals are aligned and a third factor, risks, are controlled.

The other point I'd make is I think this suffered from the Iron Ore price in the past months. My reading of what's going on in the US (Biden's build back spending), China (reflation strategy) and world (GDP growth) there's good reasons that Fe will go up in price this year. The same steady drops in inventories in the past month, will potentially cause Iron to follow other commodities and go stratospheric.

GLA and a prosperous 2022

Hi Redeye, I think you'll find Julie asks a member of the board to answer her question. So I just assume Surprised isn't a member of TSL's Board?

The disparity of peoples' expectation "valuation of £125m" and reality (of the market) is of course the answer to her question. It doesn't need a member of TSL's Board to answer that. *All* BNPL listed companies have suffered a drop in sentiment - and price. This isn't just a drop in TSL, pro rata it is moving with the market. But... demand for BNPL continues to grow and I see it as having a bright future. People have got emotional about TSL (evidenced here by disappointment and anger on this message board) and sold up - ignoring the bright fundamentals and valuation disparity that I, and others, have recognised (TSL is way to buy SQ at a 30%+ discount to current market price)

Secondly I agree with Julie that TSL will not hold SQ long term. Either we will see a sale and return of cash to s/h or possibly some sort of transfer of those shares pro rata to shareholders (I see rounding as being problematic to doing this?). But the wind down will take 2 years as we are continuing to earn profits on the wind down...... the attractive buy price based on the fundamentals is the key point here.

GLA and a happy new year to fellow holders who, literally, think smart.

As a share of investments this is a way to gain "private equity" access to funded juniors who are for the most part in the process of starting production. One exciting aspect is the fact that miners are leveraged plays. There are a number of reasons why there are price rises across many commodities should continue into 2022 and beyond. Even those which haven't done well (Silver and Gold) should see a better year in 2022, and certainly have a strong floor/resistance above $1750 where Indians and Chinese particularly will buy physical gold on any dips. Jewellery demand is strong. Moreover the fact the market doesn't appreciate is that gold and silver miners are very profitable at current prices.

Here are the final commodity prices for 2021
Gold 21% (2021 YOY fall 5%)
Coking Coal 16% (YOY rise 110%)
Tungsten 16% (YOY rise 250%
Silver 11% (YOY fall 11%)
Copper 7% (YOY rise 27%)
Tin 5% (YOY rise 93%)
Zinc 4% (YOY rise 29%)
Potash 3% (YOY rise 71%)
Other 4%

So there's a strong backdrop and a number of IPOs of Baker's portfolio which should help crystallise value. The other attraction? Current NAV is 97p and you can buy that at a 23% discount at current prices (75p). Discount has been 0% recently, especially when a periodic review is due.... And NAV has roughly doubled over the past 3 years and 141% TR over 5 years of mainly via IPOs crystallising that value suggesting there's further hidden value to be found here and 9 companies in its Portfolio have events during 2022 that are NAV triggers (Bilboes, Mines and Metals, Cemos, Tungsten West, Futura, Nussir, Kanga, Azarga, First Tin, ) so 97p may be (well) below its true NAV and therefore further value and insulation. While the portfolio is relatively small and concentrated it is geographically diverse as well as commodity diverse too.

Good luck fellow Bakers for 2022!

Just downloaded Vyrb to my phone - looks great! Happy and prosperous 2022 Teksters!

I've been running some analysis on the 48p NAV @ 30% discount which led me to top up.

The NAV at 30/06/21 was £369m. We know that since then Oxford Nanopore rose 20% at IPO then rose further to £7.05 a share today (30/12/21). This translates to a £65m uplift at today's price and equates to around half of the current market price of SUPP (i.e. 16.5p per share). This is a publicly traded stock and while there's a tie in until April this provides a liquid basis for a good part of the valuation.

I'd make the point that BioTech generally has been beaten down in H2 2021 so many of SUPP's public holdings are down 20%-50% but that this is market wide. I am seeing reversion to the mean in other BioTech holdings such as BIOG and ARIX, and the need for BioTech has definitely not gone away - it has increased and also is a diversifier. Moreover the fact that ONT has held its ground since its IPO signals its strength and strong outlook. This article provides a very good overview of why SUPP's holding in ONT is exciting. https://www.ft.com/content/605ab02f-3f17-4c34-9671-c33b9d181222

As for the private holdings, many of these are exciting and fast growing plays on FinTech and 5G - Atom Bank, Seedrs, Federated Wireless are all top 10 holdings (by value). These haven't been revalued and I believe these will do well in 2022. None of this is included in that 30% discount to NAV.

Was the decision of Shroders to invest in JMAT a poor one for SUPP? In hindsight yes this is baked into the price.... the 48p NAV includes the reduced value of JMAT (£21 per share today). But the approx £3m loss is dwarfed by the ONT £65m gain so keep it in perspective. Moreover going forward there are still opportunities in clean air, as EURO7 regulations and similar elsewhere kick in (including in China and India). ICE cars will decline but EVs are still only predicted to be 1 in 7 in the UK in 2022. JMAT's hydrogen strategy could pay off too - PGMs are core to hydrogen (I read today that Palladium can be used like a "sponge" to store hydrogen much more efficiently than compressing it)

The ghosts of Christmases past still haunt SUPP and I love a share with poor sentiment and strong fundamentals..... The stock market in the long run is a counting machine and not a voting machine, as Ben Graham taught us, and picking this up at 30% below its published NAV is a bargain imo.

Happy new year fellow Suppsters

Thanks TopCatz I investigated STX and invested - today’s rise in STX has just paid for Christmas!!!

A prosperous 2022 to all Tekkies!

I found the video a bit vague because Bill mentions "a few billion dollars", "3x return" and "a $100 billion".

My interpretation is that PSH currently have earned a $600m/£450m return so far. If interest rates move up to say 1-2% then that will be worth a further $2bn/£1.5bn (i.e. 20% uplift of NAV so £6 a share uplift)..... and if interest rates go to say 15% then that's worth $100bn/£75bn i.e. £300 a share (10 bagger).

A FTSE100 ten bagging would sure be something! But the chances of a sharp increase in interest rates, is unlikely in my opinion (indebted governments wouldn't allow).

The beauty of this IT is there's a number of value/recovery plays on the UK economy with a NAV discount that's nearing 10% and a Z Score of -1.2

Frasers Group plc ORD GBP0.10 24.19%
Castelnau Group Ltd ORD NPV 17.61%
Barratt Developments plc Ordinary 10p 15.74%
easyJet plc Ordinary 27 2/7p 12.32%
Ryanair Holdings Ordinary Shares EUR0.006 7.86%
Lloyds Banking Group plc Ordinary 10p 6.39%
Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings Ltd 6.24%
Bellway plc Ordinary 12.5p 5.04%
RHI Magnesita N.V. EUR1 4.62%

Well here's a thought Silverknight: 45.6% of the NAV is the magnesium open pit called Future so valued at approx 29p per share of NAV.

It is operational, and has been for 18 months. It's had investment in 2021 to optimise its operation. 80% is qualified dolomite - use to smelt magnesium. Magnesium is up 22% this morning (24th Dec); it's up 220% in 2021. The Chinese are going to be announcing further infrastructure stimulus spending ($1-2 trillion?) and Magnesium will be one of the metals in demand. I can't find any numbers as to tonnes mined/sold unfortunately. Looking at their videos it would appear to be something like 10,000-20,000 tonnes per annum of material operation - so possibly $4-6m profitability?

I guess if Jade can offload it at a decent price then yeah, selling it could be good. But equally if they can't then in such a buoyant environment this asset should be able to significantly contribute to 2021 and 2022 profit.

If this were a mining share and not an investment co (assuming my estimates are accurate) then this would be far too cheap. In its present form Jade is half a mining co given the large proportion of future to Jade's portfolio.

What's interesting too is the future importance and direction of magnesium beyond what's happened in 2021 e.g. read this:
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/the-magnesium-market-could-double-in-under-a-decade-and-one-asx-listed-company-is-ready-to-make-its-move/

Interesting video Surprised.

Optionality is certainly one of the benefits of the stake in Block.