Member Info for Agricore

Hi SGD, yes I did use Aura in my calculations. But the reason I included Artius was I got my list from slide 25 of their interim presentation (https://ether-assets.ams3.digitaloceanspaces.com/arix/Arix-Bioscience-Interim-2021-results-Final_2021-08-12-075514_bmzg.pdf)

Artius is listed there as "Nasdaq" but I found they are at Series C investment instead (and that I actually hold it via TFG, IPO and via Arix!)

I had read ST's article but wanted to validate what he was saying before averaging down (i.e. was it too good to be true)

I'm taking up the allocation and asking for more too. I think the current valuation is compelling.

A risked prospective NAV of around 27p a share offers 350% upside for just the A&B sands. But there's then the deeper water, the various renewables projects including the FS for green hydrogen. The funding is being done to get "attractive rig rates" so there's funds to do more than just the A&B sands appraisal.

The potential upside is more like a 14-bagger from what I've seen.

GLA!

Hi Unhooked, My analysis is that they had £42m cash (at 30/06/21) plus (assumed) Free Cash Flow of £1.5m for H2 21 (based on 2020 FCF allowing for growth) plus a facility for £50m less 30/06/21 creditors of £10m and non-current of £10m. They bought HICP for £5m and BBI for £36m. So that leaves around £32.5m head room (net undrawn). That's assuming the new borrowing completely replaces the old. (The Interim mentions needing to repay the Italian banks?).

Other thoughts about HICP/BBI/Dentyl:
1/ The relationship with Bayer and "another significant player" (GSK or similar) is substantial. They've already deepened, extended and built on that relationship in the Interims (eg extend from 12 to 51 countries).
2/ The margins are almost certainly higher on these specialist products compared to fighting it out with P&G etc on Mouth Wash and Tom/D*ck/Harry on the hand sanitiser!
3/ Go back and look at the EPS and EBITDA for every year 2017-2020. Those numbers more or less triple year on year. You can't achieve those sorts of numbers by luck!
4/ The Directors 2020 share sale. It was more like 60% of their holding and the buy back was less than 10% of their smaller holding. But the MD for example still has £300k of shares (at current prices) so does have skin in the game - and remember he has lost £700k on paper, so if that were me I'd be working damn hard to turn this ship around. (Otherwise I'd resign and enjoy my million quid from the 2020 sale haha)
5/ I bought Dentyl at the start of the pandemic (a daily further line of defence against covid). I found it in Boots (expensive) and then in Aldi (less). But recently I've seen it in many more Supermarkets.... it's a daft way to say a share is good but the fact they've got it into so many more places is encouraging too.

There's a great deal of pessimism on the board. And the drop is very painful but I'm considering what we know.

1. We know that VLG have achieved cost synergies in the past. We know that potential for cost synergies exist in its 2 most recent acquisitions (manufacturing capacity, customer synergies and reduction of costs). The BOD have not given any indication that the synergies have failed to materialise (but have told us other bad news - which suggests there's not even more bad news?).
2. We know that 2021 revenue (very recently) has been guided as not less than £32m (a reduction of £6m). Cenkos earlier this month guided EBITDA to now be around £6m for 2021 rising to £9m for 2022.
3. If this is true (for all their faults the BOD haven't told any outright lies - I think we can agree on that?) then the EV/EBITDA is now standing at 6 for 2021 and at 4 for 2022.

The corresponding PE ratio is 9 dropping to 6. I can only say this valuation is incredibly cheap. But the crucial question is can it get any cheaper?

I've tried to think about all the reasons and then what would I do if I were the CEO:
1. The wonky Chinese distributor can be resolved/replaced. It was more a growth opportunity than a huge proportion of historic sales too. It's disappointing that it hasn't been resolved to be fair.
2. The destocking is a timing issue (and I'd argue an over supply issue - people aren't using less sanitiser, it's just most distilleries and other Tom, D*cks and Harry's decided to "help out" last year and switched to manufacturing Hand Sanitiser. I doubt any are doing that now - the pubs are all back open afaiaw and there's booze to make!).
3. It's not as though VLG is solely a hand sanitiser company either! The breadth and range of products - and VLG's ability to innovate its range of products (for example the way it combined traits from Dentyl and its other mouthwash product to produce new variants and the pink mermaid and blue unicorn versions with sparkly stuff in them.... to me I've been impressed by the innovation I've seen during the 2020 full year presentations).

4. As for the BOD selling down and rebuying a small slice recently - yeah fair one. But I believe they kept quite a lot of skin in the game despite selling a proportion (half?) last year.

5. As for the ii's selling down my thought on this is a £37m market capitalisation is chump change for Black Rock. Of the ii's Mark Slater is the one I rate most highly. And has he reduced his holding??

6. Cost inflation. This is across the board and not unique to VLG.

Look I'm sitting on a paper loss with VLG same as many (all?) of you. I'm not happy about that either. I just see the current drop as a loss of faith/sentiment, and think the fundamentals will cause this to bounce next year - like Vox Markets think.... to be fair to them Paul and the other chap only talked about putting this on a watch list rather than going all in

Hi all, I've been working through the 5 Nasdaq listed holdings and notice 2 things (Harpoon, Artius, Autolus, LogicBio, Imara).

1. All have significantly dropped in the past 6 months. Around a 35% drop. These make up around 66% of the June 30 valuation (of 220p less cash of 108p). So in my estimation (56.5p*0.35) that's a 18.5p drop. So £2.20 down to £2.02. Meaning ceteris paribus that the current discount is around 37.5% (I am assuming no movement to the other 34% unlisted holdings - as who knows, and that cash remains at 108p)

2. If you look at the average analyst 12 month price targets for the 5. These average at around 200% of current prices. So let's say they are only correct on 1 out of 5 - that suggests a (38p*0.2) = 8p uplift by end of 2022. That places ARIX at a (85/210) over a 40% discount - assuming no movement on the unlisted portfolio.

Conclusion: Even being extremely pessimistic/realistic I see deep value here. I think Arix themselves sum it up the best: What we have in our portfolio in numerous holdings at phase 2 trials giving us multiple shots at goal.

Environmental legislation would more likely be an opportunity for CEY. Worldwide There’s a clampdown on artisanal mining (which I think is a good thing) and new restrictions often have the perverse effect of benefitting incumbents and squeeezing out the juniors. CEY are way ahead of the curve on ESG including its solar power generation - as I can see how fuel cost is driving AISCs higher in gold mining.

Meanwhile the crypto speculators’ Ponzi scheme will come crashing down and that will be incredibly bullish for gold.

Demand is strong in Asia for jewellery.

CEYs forecast aisc is coming down and the market has ascribed zero value to its resource update. There’s a strong floor in the high 1700s - at which price gold miners are making lots of money!

I find it incredible that CEY is at this price tbh.

RNS confirmed TSL know of no reason for the price drop either.
I was delighted to buy more this morning at a cheeky price :)
It's now back to 95p which is still cheap imo.

Dacian Oil deal has concluded: these are assets generating 1050 BOEPD - 60% gas and 40% oil.

LMS has itself invested US$9.1 million in senior loan and equity capital to acquire a 32% holding in Dacian. The $9.1m loan holds a coupon of 14% which equates to a $1.25m income (or an IRR equal or more than 15%)

There are some buys but the price hasn't moved..... yet. I've topped up on the good news and am looking forward to the full year update in January!

As at 30th September:
£20.5m Cash plus £6.7m escrowed Cash
£27.2m Total

The market cap today is £25.8m...... so you are getting £1.4m of cash for free.
And a free ride on their portfolio worth £21.5m NAV too?!!

https://www.lmscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Factsheet-Q3.pdf

Agree but Nevertheless disappointing that the placing was made only to IIs.

The point has been made to Clifford about using primary bid or similar on more than one occasion - it is us PIs who have kept faith in TEK after all.

Hi Mosquito, you say the 2 suitors is brilliant news for TRR? Why? If they are getting a 1.5% NSR that's based on the price of gold and the volume of gold produced.

If Lake Rebecca sells for X instead of Y because it's been bid up there's no benefit to TRR. Or am I missing something?

If Leon and Colin can deliver a further 178% year-on-year increase in combined attributable operational earnings (like they did in the August 2021 update) then I'd rather have this than a quarterly update. :)

......Relax - the current share price will re-rate.

$511m revenue and EBIT of 18% - 19% suggests a doubling of profit (2020 averaged $475m and circa 10% EBIT per quarter).

The outlook remains positive with a global backlog of operations; northern hemisphere winter and talk of 4th/5th etc waves of covid could be a dampener..... but at sub 200p is already in the price.

https://youtu.be/-tMgF2KV25A

Lots of positive drivers and reasons to feel optimistic about MTI

Investors chronicle lists afritin as having a brokers downgrade to forward earnings compared to 1 month ago as 0.5p dropping to 0.3p.

When production is heading up, (fixed) costs are largely static and the price of tin now exceeds $38000 as of today I find it very very hard to believe a broker can downgrade by 40% month on month . Clueless. We will see afritin bounce strongly in due course

https://roskill.com/news/vanadium-outlook-for-the-rest-of-2021-still-positive-but-with-some-uncertainty/

This article explains some of the reasons for the retracement of vanadium prices but all of them are delays and elements which will feed into a more positive 2022 in my opinion.

I’m under water on this stock but looking at the mcap £110m and the prior profit 2018 or 2019 circa £60m you would be buying at an eye watering PE of 1.8 so long as you believe future profits can equal - or exceed - the past.

With investment driving cost cutting, new markets (electrolytes), and predicted vanadium price rises there’s every reason to think so

Do people think China has finished with its reforms?

If so then this is a very attractive entry point.

1.8% yield
4% discount to NAV
Average excess to NAV was 8.5% over the past 12 months

So glad I topped up during the pullback. I don't think we will see an IPO for Salarius - I think Pepsi, Tyson of General Mills or similar will buy out salarius during 2022.

GLA

Only last year HOC dropped to 90p then double-bagged to £2.70…. This time round hoc is stronger with improved LoM, stronger finance position and rare earths too. There’s a lot to be positive about IMO.

Good luck to all remaining here. I sold out a couple of months back and looks like I made the right move.