Member Info for Agricore

An FIPP Interim Results review:

https://www.youtube.com/live/Z2terSX2JZg

The automation at McDonalds and marketing investment is what drives its large margins.

So what happens when GRG invests similarly?

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/greggs-how-does-it-measure-up

ATM power.

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/atm-bomb-or-atm-power

There is an update worth knowing about:

Specimen Hill 5th November 2024

1. 30 of 174 rock samples in 2024 sampling were >1% copper, up to 3.01% copper and 3.8g/t gold. Best historic samples were >20% copper and >50g/t gold!

2. anomolous copper and gold confirmed through soil sampling

3. Helimag survey conducted, targets identified

4. Further soil sampling, geological mapping and rock chip sampling continuing to define drill targets.

(See: https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/WEC/02877218.pdf)

5. TERMS - TTAU have sold Specimen Hill based on a A$5m spend + 3% royalty: 51% A$1m spend, 25% A$2m spend, 24% A$2m spend + 3% perpetual royalty on all minerals. On a possible future $10k/tonne copper price and 5Kt operation at 3% that would be worth £1.2m per year + gold royalty.

6. Sale of Deep Blue and Whale Head earned £117k. But TTAU also own 27m Kazera shares worth £325k today.

TTAU's market cap today is £0.95m.

RSE also is mentioned here where post period there's a 22p per RSE share uplift based on listed valuations

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/i/151343268/rse-riverstone-energy

Survival rate increases to 100% 36-month overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) rates in patients fully treated with Versamune® HPV combined with chemoradiation (N=8) - 88% (15/17) of patients had a complete metabolic response

https://www.pdsbiotech.com/index.php/investors/news-center/press-releases/press-releases1/131-2024-news/952-iotechnnounces36onthverallurvivalateof8420241002

Skid35

You wrote "There are two sides to a balance sheet, reducing cash and equity but should be accretive as cash is effectively used to buy assets at a large discount."

Assuming (as IPO does) that it holds lots of cash then it's not that you buy assets at a large discount. The accounting is that you are reducing shareholder's equity (one side of the balance sheet), and reducing cash (the other).

The result of doing so is that (the same) portfolio assets are now shared among fewer shareholders therefore remaining shareholders own a slightly larger proportion. That's how it's accretive.

Nothing to do with "buying assets at a discount" or "growth and development", it's about the reduction in the sharing of investments.

"many of his recommendations have disappointed"

Is 1/3rd many?

See:

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/300-triumph-or-harrumph

Bobbill you wrote:

"So operating profit for the first 6 months was £4.3m and this guys forecast for the 12 months is £ 3.1m ……errrm I think I’ll wait for the companies figures!"

Try reading it again. Oak Bloke says Operating profit £4.3m in H1 and £11.4m full year so simple maths tells you £7.1m Operating Profit in H2.

One big difference and what appears to be a glaring error in Zeus' numbers appears to be that Interest in H1 is £3.127m yet they believe full year interest costs are going to be full year £4.5m (the difference between their EBIT and Adj.PBT numbers for 2024E).

To think interest charged drops to £1.4m in H2 is utterly unrealistic. How? Did JLP suddenly reduce debt at Christmas? Did the bank manager decide to charge about 70% less interest in 2024? The £4.1m finance cost estimate for H2 by the Oak Bloke looks more realistic.

What is less clear is what the tax charge will be. It was minus £5k in H1 (unaudited). The Oak Bloke estimate of £2.2m tax on £5.6m PBT is a quite harsh number (39.2%). Taxation was 30% in 2022. JLP give no explanation whatsoever as to how they treat tax and the status of their various tax assets and liabilities. So £3.4m-£5.6m, or higher if they have a negative tax bill (like in H1). Take your pick. Zeus think it's £0.5m tax which is 5.6% of PBT. Is that realistic either?

I'd love to only pay 5.6% tax on my income. What are the chances of that?

Https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/kzg-at-a-diamond-in-the-rough

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bigger-slices-for-kzg-stanies

When you consider Craig spoke to a $4 per KGv reduction in cash cost, turning profitable in 2025 doesn't seem impossible. A forecast profit of $4.6m net profit based on a $34.4 selling price at a $25.5 cash cost with some modest reduction of overheads, puts BMN on a 2025 P/E of just 3.5.

See:

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bmn-bush-country

Also the increase in Chinese rebar standards could be hugely positive. Back in 2018 this stoked a Vanadium price rise. Could that happen again? With Vanadium content increasing costs by $2.75 - $4 per ton* of Chinese steel and 2023 production of 226m** tonnes that's an additional $621m - $904m of demand for Vanadium, which was $46bn in 2023 and which is forecast to grow to $105.4bn by 2032***.

Sources:

*

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinese-steel-traders-seek-delay-new-rebar-standards-2024-07-24/

**

https://www.mysteel.net/news/5047268-nbs-chinas-2023-rebar-output-falls-2-yoy

***

https://www.factmr.com/report/vanadium-market

Cathy Wood and Ark back PACB (Pacific Bio), and certainly speak to the future growing potential of genomic sequencing

Https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/ptal-ly-ho

I know. Picking a stock that only delivered a 125.9% increase in NAV in today’s results - what a numpty.

Https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/char-iots-of-morocco

Think you're double counting the £250k's Tray556. This article explains what appears to be the deal:

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/i/145520666/stop-press-rrr-update

If you actually look at the holdings (most/all of BGS holdings are in the BG SJC Fund) the outlook looks positive.

See:

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/sum-o-i-found-this-opportunity

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/japan-smaller-companies-update

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/japanese-smaller-companies-april?

Https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/vlg-reatness-beckons

If you're having a lol I think you've missed the point:

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/salt-2023-ye-update

Https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/a-fish-called-nsci