The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/happy-christmas-reader
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/sed-ition-part-1
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/sed-ition-part-2
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/sed-ition-part-3
https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/sed-ition-part-4
PWA2477,
Well it might have been worse. He might have lost all credibility just by spelling the word credibility wrong.
The evidence for it being Pepsi is well documented in this article:
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/microsalt-part-of-tek
But even if it is not Pepsi the fact is it is a Fortune 500 "leading snack food company". See Tek's RNS 22/12/23:
"MicroSalt recently received wholesale orders from two Fortune-500 companies, one a leading snack food company and the other one of the world's largest pharmacy/food retail chains. Additionally, the company is engaged in late-stage supplier discussions with other major snack food brands which the company hopes to announce in 2024."
Take your pick: General Mills, Tyson, Coca Cola, Mondelez, Pepsi.
Source: https://fortune.com/2015/06/22/fortune500-food-beverage-tobacco/
Pepsi operates extensively in LatAm where the customer is baesd and has a high stated ESG priority to reduce sodium.
Bear in mind too, The Oak Bloke correctly anticipated that customer A in the prospectus was CVS Health, another Fortune 500 company with 9,500 stores.
GLA
Hi Damofarl,
That was an interesting article.
It contrasts with the article I included in my FAIR article, here:
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/i/140055091/so-clos-are-bad
https://blog.clarion-capital.com/clos-endured-the-great-financial-crisis.-will-clos-suffer-the-fate-of-cdos-in-the-next-one
The reconciliation in my mind is that general debt default levels doesn't equate to CLO default rates due to overcollateralisation, diversification and active management a CLO manager conducts on our behalf.
I hope I've done justice to FAIR. As I say in the article it was a tricky one to cover, and not to fall into the "it's complex therefore it's very risky, therefore impossible to write about" narrative I've seen in other articles. Nor did I want to leave it at "take the yield and hold your breath, it's been ok so far".
TMT is one of the Top 20 ideas for 2024:
https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/happy-christmas-reader
https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/delivered-via-tmt
Tek Capital & Belluscura are two of the Top 20 ideas for 2024:
https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/happy-christmas-reader
Belluscura is one of the Top 20 ideas for 2024:
https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/happy-christmas-reader
Merry Christmas to all BELL-ies! A brighter 2024 ahead.
https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/ding-dong-news-from-bell
Merry Christmas to all TEKkies. A brighter 2024 ahead.
https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/ding-dong-news-from-bell
AceofClubs,
wells are capped for only 2 reasons. Safety and Exhaustion.You say Dec have "Miniscule Resources" - you simply haven't done the maths have you?
70,000 wells and a capacity to retire 450/wells a year over the next 72 years of course means at some point in the future they have to 3x their operation (or more than 3x if they keep helping State Jurisdictions with their orphaned wells). But they've 10x the capacity of their NextLVL operation over the past 2 years - so what is actually the concern? In 2024 will they actually have more than 450 wells exhausted or with safety concerns? I doubt it, but if they do they'll increase the capacity of NextLVL.
This article explains it further for you:
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/dec-tecting-fact-and-fiction
To quote "DEC bought and operate an explicit well retirement business called Next LVL. It operates as a standalone business and competes to win work - and has won work from 3 US State Plugging Operations. Next LVL has expanded capacity from 40 wells/year to 450/wells in the past 2 years. To plug all 70,000 wells in the next 75 years suggests they will have to increase capacity by 2-3X but having proven they can increase by 10X in the past 2 years is this actually an issue? Also later on, I explore some of the reasons you WOULDN’T want to merrily plug lots of wells - at least not yet. We will explore reasons like workovers, shut ins and Carbon Capture."
And so tonight it erupts in Grindavik
https://apple.news/A3_WGsFr4T2mN6GGScgJi5A
Hi Gavster, I think speaking to a percentage decline with DEC kind of misses the underlying point. It's true the decline occurs in a steady state of around 10%. But that's not a 10% decline of the resource. It's a 10% decline in the current method to extract the resource. So if you factor in shut ins, work overs, compression, pumps and other techniques (and these are evolving year after year) then DEC have proven that 10% isn't a steady state - albeit there are costs to doing all of the above.
The better way to think of DEC is in terms of reserves and in terms of recognition of depletion. It's on the balance sheet and then it flows to the P&L as cost. On that basis the depletion is nowhere near 10%
If we take H1 2023 accounts, Natural gas and oil properties, net are $2,690m on the balance sheet and Depletion is $87.5m in the P&L. So one divided by the other that's 3.2% (per half year). And the numbers inverted show there are 15.5 years worth of production assuming a steady state. But of course the flow rates will decline which is how DEC arrive at the year 2095 for last production..... So I disagree they'll run out by 2030. Assuming of course the engineers reports are accurate (these are audited yearly) and that the depletion cannot accelerate between now and then. (Nice problem to have!)
I hope that helps explain anyway.
Https://www.fairoaksincome.com/~/media/Files/F/Fair-Oaks-IF/Fair%20Oaks%20Income%20Fund%20-%20Nov-23.pdf
Interesting to see the discount to NAV now only 5.86%. That is much reduced.
NAV return for the year 14.16%
Defaults are rising but the level remains manageable and below cushion.
The volcanic eruption risk appears to be diminishing.... magma heads to a vertical intrusion to the south near Grindavik which is away from Verne.
https://www.newsweek.com/iceland-volcano-update-magma-pools-svartsengi-power-station-1852750
Unhooked, regarding the £6.7m the fat lady has until Friday to sing. Unless they extend again. A further fund raise from a stronger order book next year will be no bad thing.
See: https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/sed-ition-part-3
I signed up for a trial of Stockopedia. Interesting to see FAIR listed as a 94/100 super stock. Volta is 97/100 too. I was interested in what made it 94/100 but it seems to be partly FAIR's price to book being 0.12. Not sure how accurate that is.
Hi Kentio,
I have held VTA for 2 years and I would say there's no witholding tax that I've discerned on VTA. VTAS, which is quoted on Amsterdam might be different. The only "loss" from my point of view is the divdend is paid in Euros so in my case I have had to convert the dividend at II's (interactive investor) rate into GBP.
In the interest of keeping this in context to FAIR, I've not found VTA to outperform FAIR. I was taken with the quiet/effective capability of Serge Demay of VTA but who has since recently retired. I still hold VTA but pending other news/updates and particularly given the dollar weakening I'm pro FAIR right now and may well liquidate my VTA holding and buy FAIR.
Hi Damofarl, and welcome too (here).
I've wondered this too. My best guess is that that small/miniscule trades are a combination of 2 things.
1/ Wallies. People who accidentally want to check the price and then click buy by mistake and actually buy or sell 1 or a a few shares. I've been a wally once.
2/ Market makers or MMs signalling to one another. It seems to me the MMs have no buy/sell cost - they don't go via a broker (as the rest of us do) and instead can place as many trades as they like at 0 marginal cost. So any trades of 1 share or a low number (impactical) number of shares means this - the MM is signalling to other MMs. This is what I see as fair value. If you could signal at a cost of 55.5p to sell 1 share I'm happy with the current sell price. It 's a signalling process - but we, PI's can take advantage of that. We, can hear the jungle drums if we just listen.
Boom boom boom, it's like jumangi, the 1 share purchase and sales are drumming, what do you hear? It's very liberating once you think like this.