Member Info for Agricore

Unhooked, regarding the £6.7m the fat lady has until Friday to sing. Unless they extend again. A further fund raise from a stronger order book next year will be no bad thing.

See: https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/sed-ition-part-3

Https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/innovative-eyewear-inc-launches-nautica-smart-eyewear-under-multi-year-global-licensing-agreement-with-authentic-brands-group-302010736.html

I signed up for a trial of Stockopedia. Interesting to see FAIR listed as a 94/100 super stock. Volta is 97/100 too. I was interested in what made it 94/100 but it seems to be partly FAIR's price to book being 0.12. Not sure how accurate that is.

Hi Kentio,

I have held VTA for 2 years and I would say there's no witholding tax that I've discerned on VTA. VTAS, which is quoted on Amsterdam might be different. The only "loss" from my point of view is the divdend is paid in Euros so in my case I have had to convert the dividend at II's (interactive investor) rate into GBP.

In the interest of keeping this in context to FAIR, I've not found VTA to outperform FAIR. I was taken with the quiet/effective capability of Serge Demay of VTA but who has since recently retired. I still hold VTA but pending other news/updates and particularly given the dollar weakening I'm pro FAIR right now and may well liquidate my VTA holding and buy FAIR.

Hi Damofarl, and welcome too (here).

I've wondered this too. My best guess is that that small/miniscule trades are a combination of 2 things.

1/ Wallies. People who accidentally want to check the price and then click buy by mistake and actually buy or sell 1 or a a few shares. I've been a wally once.

2/ Market makers or MMs signalling to one another. It seems to me the MMs have no buy/sell cost - they don't go via a broker (as the rest of us do) and instead can place as many trades as they like at 0 marginal cost. So any trades of 1 share or a low number (impactical) number of shares means this - the MM is signalling to other MMs. This is what I see as fair value. If you could signal at a cost of 55.5p to sell 1 share I'm happy with the current sell price. It 's a signalling process - but we, PI's can take advantage of that. We, can hear the jungle drums if we just listen.

Boom boom boom, it's like jumangi, the 1 share purchase and sales are drumming, what do you hear? It's very liberating once you think like this.

Https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/grow-forward

3 months on and looking at ED's forecast for 2024 and 2025 no sign of reduced amrortisation per Christopher Mills. The BS shows £153m on the books so called "aggressive" amortisation has 7+ years to run!

The improvement in FCF forecast is happening however. That's a positive. But that cash has a tall mountaian of debt to tackle. 63p fair value seems a distant possibility.

Https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/knives-to-digital-nine

Peregrine, don't know which other board you mean, and of course the dividend is currently suspended (not being paid). But I believe you are correct in your view that the news on Tuesday was positive - the impact is explored here: https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/nice-to-digital-nine

Grow will have done due diligence and has co-invested with FWD via its fund of funds and did this deal because it was in its best interest, so the idea that a poison pill is being foisted on grow is a nonsense.

Fwd on the other hand had liquidity challenges and clearly floated at exactly the wrong time. Grow is a lifeline and this is why the 9:1 ratio is going to be accretive for grow shareholders

It’s superb news. Forward has a really exciting portfolio and the problem there has been liquidity and spread. Nick the CEO of forward is a very shrewd operator and it’s worth hearing him present.

GROW have invested in FWD via its fund of funds, so it’s a known quantity. FWD is on a massive discount to NAV (65%ish) so the deal is accretive in value

@The Trots,

I hold DEC in a SIPP at aj bell and a SIPP at ii.

Neither apply withholding tax. I previously held DEC in an ISA at ii and they did withhold 15% of the dividend

Hope that helps

Rofert - 45p a share - see https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/dont-chry-for-me-argentina

Https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-280-million-electric-bikes-and-mopeds-are-cutting-demand-for-oil-far-more-than-electric-cars-213870

Boyg

In my article:

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bell-issimo

I’m working on a Discov-r 500 units a month US and 125 via innomax in Q4 rising in Q1 next quarter. With the same level for X-plor.

So I’m assuming 33% less than you just because of gearing up takes time

Https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/nein-to-digital-nine

Https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/cattle-no-ctl

If you are a a TEK shareholder you should be bothered. In a good way.

From a commercial perspective the stand represents a 10%-20% uplift in revenue and margin per customer. An upsell opportunity. $35 revenue and I estimate $15 margin. (or $25 and $5 in a Black Friday i.e. discounted sale).

If all the existing 18,000 Lucyd wearers went and bought this would drive $0.63m revenue and $0.27m to the bottom line.

Useful but not substantial.... clutching.

On the basis of my 2024 and 2025 LUCY sales forecasts of 366,000 units would be revenue $12.8m and $5.5m bottom line over the next 2 years. So the profit represents 2.5X the value of TEK's holding in LUCY.

.... and then there's 2026 and beyond :)

Is TEK still clutching? Or is it a shrewd move?

Now of course not everyone is going to buy one. And of course discounts will and do happen.

Let's say 25% do, and at an average $6 margin (ie 90% sold are discounted) that's still $0.58m ADDITIONAL forecast net profit by end of FY25 - or 25% of the current value of TEK's share of LUCY. Should you give a .... ?

Moving from operationally and speaking now as a Lucyd owner/wearer, the same way as I no longer use a charger cable and I always use a wireless charger stand for my iphone, this stand is attractive to me. Would I pay $35 plus international shipping ..... tempted but probably not. If I were an American and I pop in to a shop where they sell these, or I'm on Amazon and see one of these? Yeah, I'd buy it. That's why I think 25% will. The USB cable connectors work fine but the convenience of this is useful. Even just having the little light that tells me when they're fully charged is very useful. Think, how many of you put your glasses on some sort of nightstand in your home - or would want to?

Back to analytically, this is just 1 example of cross sell and up sell. I would yet again remind people that if you can find ways to provide useful tools and software to a user base you can generate new revenue and profit streams - like Apple do with their iphone store. This is a recurrent theme with all of TEK's investments, and is a huge store of hidden value we will be grow to appreciate, now, (for some) and over the coming years for others.

GLA

The axing (sorry resignation) of the FD comes as no surprise.

In a number of past presentations, she came across as inept. I've worked with many FDs over many years and I didn't rate her. In my opinion Craig found a misdemeanour which gave him grounds for immediate dismissal. Clear your desk love. I'll give you the chance to resign or I can fire you on the spot - your choice. Resign? Ah, wise choice. Retain some semblance of dignity. The RNS to announce this is going out in 10 minutes and so are you, so close the door on the way out.

As squirty says, there's no need for external review, and no need to mull over whatever it was. It's immaterial.

Meanwhile Craig continues to shape BMN into a stronger machine able to move forwards into a much brighter 2024. Whether it's a tailings dam or an inept member of staff he's clearly a man of understanding the problem then taking action. Just what we need. Just what BMN needs.

GLA

I see today Fair are in the top 10 for 1 Month and 3 month performance for ITs. Number 9th I think

Dgi9 and SOHO of triple point in there too. And amedeo