Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Henry Hub is now over 50% up from its $2/MMBtu lows. While DEC is predominantly hedged, big swings and variations in price help DEC lock in puts at advantageous rates.
This article suggests regardless of the current Middle East crisis, there are solid future fundamentals for LNG
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/top-japanese-energy-trader-warns-world-running-short-lng-energy-transition
Quite how we remain at 74p in the face of the current MD crisis, the immediate winter season and net zero energy outlook is very difficult to rationalise.
Couple of key phrases in the RNS:
"revenue in excess of £100 million" - remember this is just the first half of a growing year, the idea that ED's forecast revenue would be £204m seems too low.
"Adjusted EBITDA of no less than £15 million" so the forecast EBITDA of ED of £29m full year seems too low too.
"the Group's four other categories that have, without exception, all reported strong revenue and gross profit growth."
The words I pick out are WITHOUT EXCEPTION so that's growth in all of batteries, lighting, sports and household.
This along with their proactive actions today, are extremely positive. I bet you the SUP team watched that recent Panorama episode on Vaping and had a Board Meeting straight after - and today is the outcome from that meeting. Well played.
Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SERE/property-portfolio-valuation/16167154
More evidence that the recent drops at RGL are an overreaction
Gla
Https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/jlp-jubilee-but-not-jubilent
Northern,
You go live after commissioning i.e. November although Roan continues at a reduced rate throughout so remains "live" even in October.
I agree the key points in the Annual Report you highlight are positive.
Effectively people are focused on today's (backward looking results) and appear to ignoring the "post period" new (albeit announced 6th June 23) which points to an even stronger FY2024, and people pontificating about "when's the next supercycle" and "when will prices recover" kind of miss the point that JLP is able to withstand even a severe famine (of prices) due to its low cost strategy.
What caught my eye in the annual report was this from Leon:
"The latest laboratory scale work has shown encouraging results that exceeded Jubilee’s initial expectations in recoverable copper. The results achieved at laboratory scale have motivated the upscaling of the trials
into both continuous process runs to confirm the results .......... If successful, Jubilee will have the unique
ability to target these tailings for the entire copper industry in Zambia. The Jubilee development team is driving to present the results from these trials before calendar year end 2023 "
It's not like JLP's expectations are low, so to say these are being exceeded is very encouraging news I think.
GLA
My forecast was 10% above H2 actuals. Actual EBITDA £24.8m vs £28.25m
But considering the circa 20% YoY drop in both PGM/Oz and Copper/Tonne pricing the underlying performance is actually stronger than I forecast.
Plenty to feel pleased about based on my initial read of the results.
FYI: (from Primary Bid)
Dear Agricore,
MicroSalt IPO: deal update
Many thanks for your application for shares in the IPO of MicroSalt Ltd (to be re-registered as a public limited company and renamed MicroSalt Plc).
We are writing to you to confirm that admission of MicroSalt’s ordinary shares to trading on AIM is expected to take place on 18 October 2023 (and no later than 10 November 2023, as communicated at launch). Your allocation will be confirmed closer to the admission date. In case of any changes, we will update you accordingly.
Not forgetting when you say "the diamonds" that there are 2 sources of diamonds - inland - Deep Blue and marine - Walviskorp. Nor forgetting the 8% interest accruing over the remaining $8.15m owed. Nor forgetting that in the coming months there will be a visibility over the 2.5% of revenue royalty over all Lithium and Tantalum mined by Aftan - i.e. once Xinjian get mining.
This article covers the various aspects: https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/kazera-investments-kzg
Hi Bjn, assuming if Stewart1964's quality percentages are immutable and correct:
RGL is on a 25% discount to its 40% quality pegging.
GCP is near par to its 40% one.
TRIG is 4% discount to its 20% quality pegging.
I said if.
My point was "Quality" is what exactly? Stability of dividends? Stability of NAV? Stability of earnings? Growth of earnings? It's a "Moat" if you follow Buffett. It's qualitative. It's whatever people collectively think it is.
I'll make 2 further points:
1. What moat does GCP and TRIG have exactly? (I don't actually know the answer to that by the way, but my perception would be that infrastructure and renewables are fairly generic assets with generic (albeit inflation-linked) returns, and that newer wind turbines are cheaper to build and therefore there's a degree of obsolescence to those assets). Meanwhile the opposite is true with RGL. Newer commercial offices are subject to HIGHER build costs and generally rising rents. New supply subject to planning. Political interference comes into this comparison too. When did Commercial Offices last have a windfall tax?!
My original point was the value of assets are always relative to their return. When TRIG yields 6.7% and RGL yields 18% and if they can do so sustainably, which assets will drop in price or increase in price going forward?
I appreciate I did say IF a second time and that's perhaps the reason RGL is yielding 18% for now, but I just think it's reached a point of oversold relative to what I see as its future earnings.
Hi all, I was faced with a dilemma yesterday. I felt compelled to average down with DEC's drop in price, and poor FAIR took the brunt of my reallocation. I still hold here but at an 80% reduced amount. I know there are some DEC holders here too, Damofarl, I think you are, so I thought I would share my new blog with you:
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/dec-the-halls
I mention FAIR in this other post, although, I'm contemplating doing a full-on analysis on FAIR in the future.
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/do-you-love-dividends
Sbjb,
The great thing about Meta, Ray Ban or whoever is by giving coverage to this category it opens up the market. Just because you and I as TEK investors know what smart glasses are, doesn't mean the masses do. Yet.
Lucy only needs to catch a small slice of the eyewear market. Many people use online reviews and LUCY compares really well here. e.g. https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/innovative-eyewearlucyd-part-of-tek
Hedgehog, Harry Hyman isn't joining BELL's board.
That's a really good spot on selling BELL and buying TMTA to convert back to BELL.
Whether it's worth doing is covered in this article: https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bell-onging-together
Because after you earn £500 interest your 6.2% interest becomes 3.7% with no capital growth
I’d rather hold real assets sheltered in an ISA or SIPP
As to the quality of assets, supposedly defensive utilities have had an awful year even where they’re covered by CFDs and even in inflation proof contracts
So is quality is a qualitative measure and not a quantitative measure?
I’m delighted that people are shorting DEC
Shorts have to be covered so bring it on. I’m in no hurry to trade DEC. Sit back and enjoy the dividends - there’s a bright future ahead.
Meanwhile the buybacks are reducing the cost of dividends…. £18m/year will be saved on current £100m buyback
The fact the buyback is continuing should give people confidence - if something were amiss like debt was “out of control” as pontificated by some on here you’d need to be mad or stupid to keep such a program going.
Gla
GreyGeorge,
if you think this article or any of his writing espouses Nazism you’re deluded. I guess the closest would be he argues renewables are not a final solution. Most people hope they are, but until such time, the world needs natural gas as it’s “less bad” than coal, which - as pointed out in your supposedly Nazi article - is prevalent in China and India
The article justifies the rationale for investment in DEC.
So thanks for sharing.
Und Auf wiedersehen
It would have undergone rigorous testing before being added to McKesson or any large medical device provider’s catalogue. These people are not cavalier about adding new suppliers when a/ the incumbents are large players like Phillips b/ if you get it wrong you can kill people. Therefore have lawsuits.
I’m not worried about it. your dog’s not worried. You shouldn’t be either.
Particularly, too, when you say you only have a small holding here.
0715
AIRE's 10% fall is June 2022 to June 2023 isn't it? Is that indicative of the present?
Should you be saying in October 2023 "prices are falling" or is "prices have fallen" more accurate (based on the evidence you present)?
RGL, remember, in the same period fell by much more. So 10% doesn't tell us anything. Except perhaps that RGL is oversold?
Meanwhile in other news, SERE announces yesterday "refinancing is based on a margin of 2.0%, which is 0.15% below the existing margin. Reflecting the competitive terms offered by four different banks, the Company has elected to extend the facility by a further euro4.5 million, to euro13.8 million, by adding two un-levered industrial assets in Alkmaar and Venray as security. The new facility has been fixed at c. 5.3% being the five-year euro swap rate (c. 3.3%) plus 2.0% margin. The debt is accretive given the net initial yield of the Dutch portfolio is c.6.2%."
So for RE it's not all doom and gloom - appreciating of course industrial is distinct to commercial office.
As well as monitoring gains/losses on the sale of assets I think what also matters are yields and rents. If those are either stable or increasing how does it make sense that the value of the underlying assets should perpetually decline?
The counter argument of course, is yields are relative to risk free rates but appear to be near their top. When M2 is shrinking rapidly in the US, the Fed knows it needs to tread carefully, and at most we'll see 0.25% more. How do assets fall when rising rents make the relative attraction of risk free diminish?
I've modelled for RGL doomsday scenarios and covenant breaches and it will take quite extreme drops alongside a simultaneous extreme lack of liquidity to achieve a breach. >19% falls from June 2023 revaluations. If the bond is fully refinanced at 9% it's a £1.5m net cost to the business. Not great but not catastrophic. Partially refinanced then it's proportionately less. The whole point of debt is that it's accretive. If it's not then the only logical choice is to pay down the debt.
If RGL can sell >£30m of its portfolio even at 19% discounts (to June 2023) it avoids a covenant breach too.
David Blackmon is a well-respected writer:
David Blackmon is an energy-related public policy analyst/consultant based in Mansfield, TX. David enjoyed a 40-year career in the oil and gas industry, the last 23 years of which were spent in the public policy arena, managing regulatory and legislative issues for various companies. During this time, David led numerous industry-wide efforts to address a variety of issues at the local, state and federal level, and from April 2010 through June 2012, he served as the Texas State Lead for America’s Natural Gas Alliance. David also maintains a growing media communications practice, and is a frequent guest on television, radio and podcasts.