Member Info for Agricore

Hi Incontext, I've been on here many years.... and so has Dartron. I believe the answer to your question is he lost money and gave up on BVC and probably still feels sore, so checks in here from time to time. Contrary to Dartron, I stayed invested here and in fact averaged down at the lows based on my reading of the value here. I value Dartron's contribution/perspective here, and on other BBs where we both hold shares.

.... because I would actually like to know the answers to my questions. Sure others would too.

And just to explain why I asked that question Bluerill I get the point about investing into the products (and agree) but the cash pile is pretty static year on year. So any investment was made without needing to burn through that cash pile, which therefore meant the buyback could have happened.

Hi Bluerill, like Dartron I simply never saw any such statement from the company about them cancelling the buy back - and I think I've read every RNS and their annual report. Do you happen to know when they said what you say they said?

Moreover did anyone actually attend the presentation on the 7th? I was unable to attend.

At sub 70p this yields over 11.5% p.a. for the next year or so. Over 25% discount to NAV. NAV stable YTD and historically showed good growth. Reasons to think book value isn’t realisable value. On top, Capital returns begin next year and by 2025 well over half should have been returned.

Gla

"Estimated discount to NAV reduced by 4%"

https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/tek-flash-update

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2002/01/02/latest-update-companies-smashing-broker-forecasts/

4th highest risers: 24.6p forecast EPS NTM up from 13.6p 1 month ago. 81% rise. Puts GROW on a PE sub 10.

Https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/innovative-eyewearlucyd-part-of-tek

Also the XL size glasses are being released later this month.

For those people who've expressed interest in buying a pair of Lucyd's there's a code below you can use to get 50% off this weekend:

HURRY50OFF

Vanadium Price

Cellcube

Intangibles

Belco

Wheeling

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bushveld-5-more-drivers-to-value

SirTrade, it not disingenuous if that’s going to be how they licence the technology and if it describes the addressable market. How do you otherwise think they would monetise the patented technology?

I’ve said for a while on this forum that there is substantial hidden value not reflected in the NAV because TEK’s portfolio is a series of technology plays with vast addressable markets and wraparound services potential. Will we in time see microsugar? Probably. Micro-flavourings? Probably. I find it hard to think a TEK shareholder can be anything but positive following today’s news

0715

I actually said NAV had risen but checking the detail this obscures the office sector falls -you’re correct on that - albeit aewu record a much smaller q2 fall and there’s not a wider picture of falls at peer REITs that show a clear picture that RGL *will* breach covenants.

Baf3

Todays patent news resolves the question of use in bread - Thordon has more than enough proof now that microsalt can be used in bread :)

I see there's a lot of negative opinion and HOC is down 4% as I write.

H1 was a break even half. My estimates show 2023 H2 will repeat that.

But 2024 looks a lot more positive. Here's why:

1/ Pallancata falls away. I questioned HOC 18 months ago why this wasn't going into C&M. Clearly in retrospect they should have done that sooner than Q4 2023. Their rationale was that there was potential at Royropota, but I fail to see the connection i.e. new exploration near a mine doesn't mean keeping an existing mine open, unless there was some politics going on?

2/ Political situation in Peru improved. Moreover HOC is now multi country so far less reliant on Peru.

3/ Inmaculada. The rise in AISC is largely down to the env't permit and new exploration should drive down the AISC back below $1300. I model it at $1250.

4/ San Jose is a great example of this. The AISC has been driven down over 10% in H1 2023 through capital expenditure. I see San Jose continuing in a steady state.

5/ Mara Rosa is 6 months away from first pour. Modelling 20koz in H1 2024 and 50k in H2 2024 the numbers start to get exciting.

6/ Royropota is 2026/2027. Any investment decision will be balanced with paying down debt.

7/Cash generation FCF is forecast at 18.6% yield for 2024. I don't think people understand how quickly the debt can be paid down. It will be largely gone in 24 months.

8/ The write downs may yet yield value. Azuca, Crespo, Aclara are written down based on accounting rules not based on any physical event. There's possible upside but all of these adjustments are non-cash in any case.

Conclusion: Using H2 2024 forecasts, I arrive to a forward PE of 3.5 at today's market price. That's based on a run rate of 100k/oz @ $1000 AISC for Mara Rosa, Inmaculada 260k/oz @ $1250, San Jose 88k/oz @ $1550. With $100m overheads.

In other words HOC is cheap in my opinion, and today's results don't reflect the forward tajectory.

GLA

"Global investment in clean energy is on course to rise to USD 1.7 trillion in 2023, with solar set to eclipse oil production for the first time"

(Source: https://www.iea.org/news/clean-energy-investment-is-extending-its-lead-over-fossil-fuels-boosted-by-energy-security-strengths)

how will rgl’s nav uniquely fall a further 12%-18% in q2 where no comparative falls are occurring elsewhere?

yesterday uk commercial property reit nav announced a 1.7% increase in q2.

https://*********************/newsfeed/article/uk-commercial-property-reit-ltd-net-asset-value-at-30-june-2023-1975364

Solid Power is also a buy on 7 analysts following and a candidate for your "must buy list"

(Source: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-up-and-coming-ev-stocks-to-put-on-your-must-buy-list)

Are we starting to feel less appalled?

Finally a $13m loss on Enviva, which I've previously covered in some detail, and once again on Nasdaq a buy with 33% upside according to the 5 analysts following including Citi and JP Morgan. Again it's a recovery play but where they are guiding the market with cost reductions, EBITDA substantial growth as previously described - refer to:

(Source:https://s28.q4cdn.com/898203682/files/doc_financials/2023/q2/EVA-2Q23-Investor-Presentation-08-04-2023-updated-4pm.pdf)

If you've been paying attention I've described $83m of losses, not $58m. That's because there are other portfolio members on a >1 MOIC, like Freewire on a 2X MOIC. So gains as well as losses.

So when you say "They've repeatedly made terrible decisions." if you look at their portfolio objectively then they've also made some smart decisions too. Moreover, I've described specifically why the jury is out with most of the portfolio too.

Since green investments are typically growth by their very nature, 27% is actually much less than other growth stocks. Comparing Scottish Mortgage for example that's down, what, 50%? GROW is down 70%.

The US IRA, the European Green Deal, the Chinese dominance in most things green, UK's labour Green Prosperity Plan from 2024, the Japanese Green Plan (https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/japan-unveils-green-subsidy-programme-6441356/) are juggernauts totalling more than $5 trillion of subsidies and support worldwide. We are only feeling the affect of those programs from mid 2023. You have to think carefully why those juggernauts are irrelevant since Riverstone's decarbonisation portfolio is a direct beneficiary.

Politically too, people can be as dismissive as they like about green wash, but there is a ground swell of public opinion as disaster follows disaster and a political solution is demanded to combat this. This will benefit decarbonisation - this is the certain future - and investors need to smell the fumes, it's as simple as that.

Extrapolating the past to predict the future as you appear to be doing, is something which wouldn't have worked for RSE's O&G portfolio if you'd done that 2 years ago - and I believe the decarbonisation portfolio will prosper going forwards in the same way.

34adsaddsa,

Couple of throwaway sentences ... do you have anything to substantiate what you say?

The MOIC for 30/06/23 for decarbonisation is 0.73X so a 27% overall loss. Not great but not "Appalling". Ceres Power down 70%, ITM down the same, Jupiter Green down 30%, Keystone Positive Change down 40%.... so what are you comparing against?

Let's look at that 27% or $58m.

1/ A third of that loss ($20m) is Anuvia - it's dead, gone bust, bad decision, but this happens.

2/ $9m is Hyzon. Hydrogen Fuel Cells. Looking at the Nasdaq RSE bought after a pull back of 33% but caught a falling knife with hindsight. It's an early stage play but a great example of a beneficiary under the IRA. It goes into commercialisation next year. "Hyzon Motors has announced the successful completion and testing of the first nine single-stack 200kW Fuel Cell System (FCS) B samples at its production and innovation centre in Bolingbrook, Illinois. This validates Hyzon’s design, equipment and operating procedures and it is now looking to increase its rate of production. Hyzon remains on course to declare Start of Production and commercialisation of its innovative FCS in 2024."

3/ $11m Tritium. Disappointing but digging into the detail are you aware that: "Tritium announced record results for the first four months of 2023 with a new production and revenue record, a $40 million capital investment from two existing backers and an expectation it will be EBITDA positive in the first half of calendar 2024. The company raised its forward-looking growth guidance as it continues to invest to meet strong customer demand for its EV fast chargers."

Did you know that they hold 30% US market share are according to the Nasdaq "super attractive", with a "strong buy" from 5 analysts covering them:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/buy-alert%3A-3-ev-charging-stocks-nearing-super-attractive-entry-points

Do you find that appalling?

A $30m loss on Solid Power. That loss is shared and also backed by BMW, Ford, Samsung and is funded by the United States Department of Energy to further scale and develop its nickel- and cobalt-free cells for its Solid-State battery technology that could significantly lower the price of EV batteries. The technology is intended to produce cells that are more energy-dense as well as lighter, thinner and less volatile than lithium-ion cells.

Doesn't that sound it could be a beneficiary of the IRA? If successful will the MOIC still be 0.39x? Or many times that?

...TBC next post...

Https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/oversold-uk-property-stocks-a-value-play-morgan-stanley-says-1.1966846

FAIR is mentioned this evening at Quoted Data. Only really to say "stay away" if you don't understand it! But hey all publicity is good publicity.

I've watched these weekly videos for a few weeks ago and would commend them:

https://youtu.be/mSQZLL-QxuU?si=V-6uwjFDe_MuFAnI

Have a good weekend - the weather is finally FAIR!