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BELL now has an order book larger than 2023's forecast sales (6250 units per Dowgate)

That's now nailed on.

On the basis that we are seeing actual production of Discov-R by end of Q3 and on a 6k per annum capacity in the US factory, existing orders will be 50% fulfilled Q4 and 50% Q1 of 2024. That's before any further orders.

Working on a China 6k USA 6k capacity (for now) then 2023 will comprise 25% Discov-R @ $2500 and 75% X-Plor. Dowgate's per unit sales therefore is far too low. The $1180 revenue per unit for 2023 will be $1,450 by my estimates. ($2500x0.25 + $110x0.75)

That means revenue for 2023 will be $9m not $7.5m. We know Discov-R is much more profitable so forecast EBIT -$4.5m would be ~$-3.5m.

Going forwards to 2024 the $1400 assumed could (pessimistically) be a 50/50 mix of X-plor and Discov-R (it could be much higher in favour of Discov-R.... the order books suggests so!). If that's true then $2500+$1100/2 = $1800 revenue/unit. Assuming the 20,000 units (split 50/50) can be achieved (so that's a 66% increase in production) then we are looking at a $36m revenue (not $28.8m) and assuming a +10% to COS then a GP of $17.7m (not $11.5m) so EBITDA of $7.7m (not $1.5m). And cash of $7.7m not $1.5m.

That tanslates to an EV/EBITDA valuation of 7.7 for 2024 dropping to an jaw-dropping 1.5 in 2025.

That's based on a 50/50 product mix in 2025 ($1800 revenue/unit) and 40k units. Gross Profit grows to $41m.

Today's announcement is *significant*. The estimates that the majority of sales would be X-Plor and just a small number of Discov-R clearly has ignored the KEY PHRASE "A BETTER FINANCIAL OPTION" (to quote the RNS):

>> use for CMS E1390 (stationary) and E1392 (portable) reimbursement codes, making the DISCOV-R a better financial option for the thousands of homecare oxygen providers. It will also produce nearly three times as much oxygen by weight than its dual flow competitors.

GLA

We now have an order book larger than 2023's forecast sales (6250 units per Dowgate)

That's now nailed on.

On the basis that we are seeing actual production of Discov-R by end of Q3 and on a 6k per annum capacity in the US factory, existing orders will be 50% fulfilled Q4 and 50% Q1 of 2024. That's before any further orders.

Working on a China 6k USA 6k capacity (for now) then 2023 will comprise 25% Discov-R @ $2500 and 75% X-Plor. Dowgate's per unit sales therefore is far too low. The $1180 revenue per unit for 2023 will be $1,450 by my estimates. ($2500x0.25 + $110x0.75)

That means revenue will be $9m not $7.5m. We know Discov-R is much more profitable so forecast EBIT -$4.5m would be ~$-3.5m.

Going forwards to 2024 the $1400 assumed could (pessimistically) be a 50/50 mix of X-plor and Discov-R (it could be much higher in favour of Discov-R.... the order books suggests so!). If that's true then $2500+$1100/2 = $1800 revenue/unit. Assuming the 20,000 units (split 50/50) can be achieved (so that's a 66% increase in production) then we are looking at a $36m revenue (not $28.8m) and assuming a +10% to COS then a GP of $17.7m (not $11.5m) so EBITDA of $7.7m (not $1.5m). And cash of $7.7m not $1.5m.

That tanslates to an EV/EBITDA valuation of 7.7 for 2024 dropping to an jaw-dropping 1.5 in 2025.

That's basd on a 50/50 product mix in 2025 ($1800 revenue/unit) and 40k units. Gross Profit grows to $41m.

Today's announcement is *significant*. The estimates that the majority of sales would be X-Plor and just a small number of Discov-R clearly has ignored the KEY PHRASE "A BETTER FINANCIAL OPTION" (to quote the RNS):

>> use for CMS E1390 (stationary) and E1392 (portable) reimbursement codes, making the DISCOV-R a better financial option for the thousands of homecare oxygen providers. It will also produce nearly three times as much oxygen by weight than its dual flow competitors.

GLA

Hammerhead now trading c$13.75 up 40%. This is one of RSE’s public holdings

When you can get 5% for taking (supposedly) zero risk on government bonds then effectively the bond market "Crowds out" the stock market. It's happening to very many shares. I don't believe it's a matter of "stopping the rot" and "attracting new investors" or something peculiar to BMN. Interest rate rises hurt businesses in more ways than just the cost of borrowing (if they need to borrow).

The perceived risk due to the funding, disruption due to the power load shedding all exacerbates the situation and why this now is on a serious discount to both its book (net asset) value as well as the sum of its future cash flows.

For the patient, I believe BMN could be an excellent investment in time, and the new leadership is most welcome. Diversification of your money is of course important.

GLA

I've watched the presentation and would make the following comments:

1. May 2023 was a missed opportunity. Resolution 3 at the AGM 11th May Re-Appoint J.Auld.

a/ 26.7m in favour (86.66%).

b/ Against (fire his ***) 4.1m. (13.34%)

c/ Abstain 12.4m.

d/ Did not bother to vote 77.6m.

(Total 110.8m shares)

Fewer than 4% voted to be rid of Mr Auld. I count myself in that 4%. Shame on you if you didn't bother.

So lots didn't bother who voted to keep Mr Auld?

Assuming most (all?) PIs would vote in favour it must be the ii's.

A little bit of research shows that there are a swathe of ii's holding 47.4m shares (42.7% of votes)

Source: https://research-centre.barclays.co.uk/shares/serinus-energy-npv/company-information/detail/

2. I previously commented on this board that the $22/boe G&A cost was disproportionate and needed cutting. Someone raised this on the call (thank you whoever did this). This was immediately dismissed. $22/boe is less than many other similar companies said Mr Auld! And besides he continued SENX has 2 listings and 2 operations explaining the elevated cost.

It didn't take me long to rack my brains and think of i3energy. They are listed in Canada and the UK. They have operations in Alberta, Canada, plus also operations in the North Sea. 2 listings and 2 operations. What's their G&A cost per BOE? Well the admin cost for 2022 was $15,038,000 and their 2022 BOE production was 7,415,705. Their G&A was $2.03/boe (rounded up). Not $22. To give an idea if i3 had a $22/boe admin cost their admin would have cost them $163m last year! (i3 made $42m net profit to give you an idea how ridiculous that ratio is)

3. Today's fall. Probably along with many other people I feel there's substantial value here, but also the incompetence is spectacular. My instinct today was to average down at a 1.9p buy price but I resisted the urge to do so. Judging by the 100k buys suggests one or more of the ii were busily hoovering up shares.

So what does the smart money know?

a/ Sabria N2 is "in the bag". 45% of 420boe/day x 365 x $38 net back is $5.8m to the bottom line (assuming further G&A is not required!). Ah, one off costs of $180k if the acid is required (45% of $400k)

b/ Sabria W1-side track is potentially achievable in 2023. That could add a further $5.8m or more at a cost of circa $2m.*

c/ Sale of assets (asset stripping)? **

d/ Take over bid in the offing? ***

* +840BOE/day means G&A per BOE - drops to $10 from $22.54 - still high and SENX is suddenly quite profitable.

** - ii's listen to presentations too. That comment about the value of the gas works being worth more in scrap than the market cap might've pricked up someone's ears.

*** - IF THERE'S AN EXTRAORDINARY MEETING ANNOUNCED PLEASE VOTE!!!

GLA

.... CGEO's NAV is over double the market price and growing. A great result congrats Damofarl.

I just checked my rationale notes why I sold and the reason I sold out was just after Ukraine War kicked off and my fear that the Russians would sweep through Ukraine and then either settle some scores in Georgia, or pressurise it into cutting links with the West (tanking the economy). Clearly I got that very wrong!! I should have paid more attention during Rocky III and James Bond as to the quality of the Russian Army! :)

Meanwhile FAIR announces another 2c dividend to be paid 21st September, just 5 weeks away :)

Damofarl, I was in CGEO for quite a while and did quite a lot of analysis on it. I sold it at 25% profit but got out too early because it's 50% up since! It's a really good shout, and I should at the very least have it on a watch list. Looking at today's results NAV

Not forgetting Marc Benioff (Founder of Salesforce) is also an investor in WasteFuel.

(Source:

https://www.crunchbase.com/search/principal.investors/field/organizations/num_investors/wastefuel)

Current NAV (unaudited) is $152.52m based on NAV 31/12/22 of $63.84 + B Series UpRound of Waste Fuel $84.78m + Enphys Uplift via Enphys Mgt Co to 30% ownership $3.9m

>>They need to prove what they say they can do.

Firstly, WasteFuel will have had to prove their technology to clever people in order to secure Series B investment! And to previous investors too. As 2Phevs says this is backed by smart money, not by a lot of sparkly eyed PIs as might be true elsewhere.

Secondly, while not an investor, its partnership with Averda is significant and this will be the "proof" of the technology i.e. its first plant. They announced this partnership at COP27, and a 1st plant in Dubai, and it's reasonable to think there'll be a further announcements and showcasing at COP28 (in Dubai). Averda employs 14,000 people has annual t/o of $349.2 million, and collects 4.1 million annual tons of waste across Africa, India and the Middle East.

They do say be greedy when everyone's fearful. How much more fearful can people be about investments like this? Today's market price is at an 84% discount to fair value which suggests extreme fear.

Hi all,

Below is Jubilee's depreciation policy. Straight line (which means a fixed amount each month) and the key part is "Plant & Equipment". While I agree in theory that as output increases the apportionment gets lower, I also think the 3-8 years bit matters. In other words as output increases then potentially the lifespan of that equipment shortens (from 8 years towards 3years).

Think of Parker Schnabel on Goldrush who by turning up the speed of the conveyor, that belt breaks more easily.

For the purposes of estimating, in the absence of any specific guidance (I can't see any in the 2022 accounts) I'd treat plant & equipment as a semi variable element (50% fixed at 8 years, 50% variable down to 3 years)

Also you need to think about "impairments". Whilst this can be intangibles in JLP's case it can also apply to equipment (I read in their notes). There were no impairments in FY2022 but there were in FY2021 (of £0.45m). Impairments is where the depreciation policy has been too conservative. For example I estimated the conveyor would last 8 years and it's now 6 years old and needs replacing 2 years early. That's an impairment of it's remaining 2 year value.

POLICY:

Depreciation of plant and equipment is calculated on a straight-line basis using rates which are designed to write off the assets over their estimated useful lives as follows:

Buildings 20 years

Plant and equipment 3 – 8 years

Furniture and fittings 10 years

Motor vehicles 5 years

Computer equipment 3 years

Sorry, when I said blue tint glasses I meant blue-light filtering glasses. You use them to make your eyes less tired in front of a screen. My reading glasses appear clear to see through, but are yellowy to look at. Not truly clear or any tinted colour like would be if there were Lucyd glasses.

Blue Tint is not the same as blue-light filtering!

Adon,

Romania - 163boe/d Q1 and 139boe/H1 so Q2 must have been around 115boe/d.

Tunisia - 516boe/d H1 (plus gas) so happy with that.

Two numbers strike me as wholly unacceptable:

1. Romania $63.62 production expense - largely due to falling volumes - but the point is while SENX speak of $100m revenue yielded from Romania the profitability is simply not there. Be rid of it. Be rid of the expense. Be rid of the risk.

2. G&A costs per BOE over $22. By comparison the industry typically is somewhere $2.50/BOE to $2.00/BOE, with the range from $0.69 – $5.97/BOE. $22!!!! There needs to be some cuts to make the business viable.

https://btuanalytics.com/crude-oil-pricing/margins-are-good-in-the-oil-patch-despite-investor-indifference

For example I previously pointed out that the accountancy bill was about 6 times greater than much larger peers (I think I compared SENX vs i3 energy)

I expect today's open will be down; here's 8am....

2 other minor points:-

Worth noting the website is also updated - see: https://lucyd.co/pages/lucyd-app

I think it enhances the offering - as a buyer that new page would make me want to buy.

Second I've got "blue light filtering" on my reading glasses (which I rarely use). But I really see what Harrison Gross was talking about with the yellow tint on most blue tint glasses. Hadn't really noticed it before but it does make your eyes look a bit "malarial". If LUCY have blue tint which doesn't do this (as they claim) I can see how that would be pretty cool.

Having just downloaded the new App (Note to LUCYD users the old app doesn't update you have to download the new one) - and hooked it into my Lucyds - much more slick, with easier set up, the voice recognition appears to work better too. But otherwise the same app just tarted up (think of the app going from monochrome to photo realistic) - the millennials and gen zedders will be happy.

The interesting thing too are the plans for enhanced subscription.

People are valuing LUCY (and by extension TEK) on the "sale of smartwear" but as anyone who follows Apple knows the sale of services can be particularly lucrative. What the subscription would be and how many would pay is a moot point. Gives food for thought however.

Category 1 hazards – deemed the most serious, with the potential to cause death or loss of limb – are found in 14 per cent of private rented homes, according to Labour analysis of the latest English Housing Survey, which covers 2021 to 2022. This figure is up from 13 per cent the previous year.

Around 990,000 privately rented homes (23 per cent) fail to meet the “decent homes standard” according to the 2021-22 data – a higher proportion than in the social rented sector (10 per cent) and homes that are owner-occupied (13 per cent).

(Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rent-tenants-landlords-uk-housing-b2391050.html)

Reading back from the operational update 20th July it doesn't appear anyone has attempted to estimate the H2 results.

Not even WH Ireland. So I thought I'd try.

H2 Production:

PGMs = 24,292Oz

Chrome = 655,889 Tonnes

Copper = 1,751 Tonnes

Using the same unit revenues as H1* (PGM basket $1,453/oz, Chrome $65.81/tonne or $1777 per PGM Oz (65.81*655889 tonnes/24292ozs = $1777), Copper $6750/tonne)

* - looking at average H2 6 month commodity prices it looks reasonable to assume this.

I arrive at total revenues of $78.46m (PGM+Chrome) and $11.82m (Copper) = $90.28m

Using PGM + 10% on H1/Copper - 10% on H1 Chrome +10% on H1 (PGM Net of By Products)

$26.72m + $9.16m = $35.88m Gross Profit.

Or £28.25m

Assuming Operating Costs are static in H2 £9.6m

Operating Profit (EBIT) £18.65m

Less Finance Costs ,Tax, minority interest ~£11m

So a £11m net profit in H2 or £15m full year. Or on today's market cap of £187m that's a FY2023 PE of 12.5

Forecast FY2024:

Assuming static commodity prices.

Profit on the basis PGM target volume is static (42,000oz), Chrome is +30% to H2 FY2023, Copper is +100% to H2 FY2023. I arrive at a GP of $52m or £41m and taking Op Costs of £12m (+33%), interest/tax/minority of £9m (+20%) to arrive at ~£20m net profit or a PE of 8.4

In my numbers I exclude a number of potential upsides:

1. Zero contribution from cobalt - the circuit is built.

2. I merely follow the guidance given 20th July. Are these too conservative?

3. Given the expansion and upgrade of the Roan Concentrator copper capacity could be higher than 5,800 tonnes

4. The "advanced discussions to grow chrome to 2m tonnes"

5. The Zambia Northern Strategy

6. Other Zambian ROM (waste) opportunities

7. PGM price recovery or price spikes (JLP have 60% insulated their power supplies in SA) - EURO7 and similar are just a few years away. PGMs are used in Electrolysers and other Electrification so falling numbers of catalytic convertors doesn't mean PGM prices will remain low.

8. Copper price recovery - the electrification tailwind has to blow some time?

9. Cobalt price recovery - the electrification/battery metal tailwind has to blow some time?

10. Forward targets of 25k copper per annum from FY2025 starts to get very exciting.

Certainly the gloomy 7p market price seems to be hanging over JLP. Once the full year results are out and especially if there are clear signs of cash generation (for JLP to fund the $8m cost in the RNS 6th June common sense suggests that cash generation is nicely occuring), then on a forward 2025 PE of just 10 you'd be looking at 14p-16p share. Longer term 2026 and beyond, the growth runway could be exciting for JLP with its expertise in mining miners' waste.

GLA

Ubervalue, it's a fairly complicated picture, as you might imagine. But here's what I found:

1. There are £200m bonds - these are fixed. 5.3% due this year £100m. 6.5% due 2027 £100m. Suggesting the remainder is floating (but I don't know that for sure)

2. On the lending out - STL (Short Term Lending) is about 25% of LINV's total lending and is a 2 year maximum duration. BTL is the other 75% and is 30 year duration. £0.4bn is long duration Mortimer 2021-1 - this is (post period) off balance sheet.

3. Note 4 of the Annual Report shows assets/liabilities over 6 months, 12 months, 24 months to be broadly equal. The gist of their strategy is (largely) that the STL is on the balance sheet and BTL is off the balance sheet.

4. LINV use interest rate swaps to manage rate rise risk (described in note 4)

5. Defaults actually fell for Y/E 31/3/23 and there is quite extensive analysis in Note 19 speaking to how they determine their provision for bad debt. They use 3 levels of stress and 10 probabilities of default. The forward picture doesn't appear to be severe at least as at year end. They speak of sensitivity analysis to "SICR" (signifcant increase to credit risk) where they consider property prices, interest rates, unemployment and various indices. Under a stress scenario note 19 speaks to a £7.9m sensitivity which would be painful, but actually not all that bad. I notice the auditor signs their provisions for bad debt with a materiality of circa £0.7m.

6. In fact Finncap's forecasts see impairments remaining steady in 2024 (£5.9m); about 40% of 2023's AUM go off balance in 2024 despite overall FuM growing by 20%.

To conclude, I can't find any evidence of an impending "Silicon Valley Bank" scenario - far from it actually. The level of risk and liquidity appears well managed and that even where defaults occur because these are secured loans the 70%ish loan to value means the value of write offs (at least in FY2023) are just a few million. Moreover, because so much of the lending is going off balance sheet these risks are diminishing too.

Frames the opportunity for Enphys:

https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2023/08/08/latin-america-could-become-this-centurys-commodity-superpower

Krusty, looking at GSF's update dramatic drops Qtr on Qtr for the UK and Ireland relate specifically to DC/DM/DR. (Dynamic Containment/Moderation/Regulation)

However I think GSF are (were) somewhat unique in providing these services to the Grid. As I understand it the purchase and supply of electricity itself is a separate activity and revenue stream to these - which is what BESS generally do. So TENT or Field wouldn't be affected by these price drops. I seem to remember GSF a few years ago speaking about Dynamic Containment being a big money spinner for them.

It would appear Guident is not alone in its market of remote monitoring for AVs.

Phantom Auto has raised $86m over Series A and B rounds. It acquired Voysys in Sweden last October for an undisclosed amount. It did so because they had valuable IP. Who else has that? Phantom is positioned around logistics - think forklifts, trucks that sort of thing. Not taxis, drones, UAVs like Guident - but the underlying technology is the same.

Is this a threat to Guident? Or an opportunity?

Seems to me that an offer of £14m-£21m (assuming the sale is somewhere between Guident's current NAV value or NAV+50%) for the 7 patents which includes AI-methods to monitor risk levels of multiple vehicles, a distributed information sharing system and low latency methods could be a rapid way for TEK to monetise Guident and strengthen Phantom's lead in the market. They are backed by several large VCs like Bessemer, so have the firepower.

Leaving TEK with the Shock Absorbers business, LUCY, BELL, Microsalt, plus a pile more cash (equal to between 7.8p and 11.6p per TEK share). These things can turn on a sixpence. One day there's the RNS - and then the cash.

GLA

Sources:

1/ https://phantom.auto/

2/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2020/01/17/phantom-of-the-operator-self-driving-techs-slowing-timetable-creates-opening-for-this-monitoring-and-guidance-startup/

3/ https://www.bvp.com/atlas/bessemer-series-a-investment-phantom-auto

4/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/edgarsten/2022/10/04/phantom-auto-buys-voysys-to-boost-remote-operation-capabilities/

5/ https://patents.justia.com/assignee/guident-ltd

(Source: https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2002/01/02/latest-update-companies-smashing-broker-forecasts/)

6th highest forecast EPS growth @ 34% from 5.9p 3 months ago to 7.9p today EPS next 12 months.

7.9p on a 71.2p buy is forward PE of 9.

By comparison the Nasdaq100 is on a PE of 34.9 today.