Member Info for Agricore

Cont’d (not sure why it truncated)

The spread is over 10% for vta - so buying vta wipes out one year of dividends.

I’d also point out that while the gbp/euro is pretty fair valued (don’t think it’ll change by much) I believe the dollar will strengthen vs gbp.

This makes Fair a better bet as you’ll get the FX lift too.

Hi Gavster, there's nothing public and its largest single holder is Citi (19%), and 2nd Nortrust, but many major names are invested here Abrdn, Quilter, Sarasin, so take your pick. There's nothing public about it.

We are overdue the monthly update by over a week for June's report, so maybe there will be some clues in there. The discount to NAV has been dropping and now stands at 13.3% (vs 16% in May) - so the buy backs are working.

I see your point about reinvesting in further CLOs. In May 2023's report it can be seen that annualised cash flows are at 26.6% of share price so there's lots of cash (morningstar shows 17% of NAV is cash). The realisations for FAIR seem to be much higher than what other CLO funds are seeing e.g. Volta (at 20%). But of course the amount of distressed debt is increasing, so cheaper prices might also equate to higher risk, potentially, so this appears to be part of the reason. And I'm happy for them to make a judgment call on that.

When I look at the 2022 accounts the amount paid in dividends is breathtaking. $45m of dividend payments in 2022.... on a $232m market cap! Buy backs also reduce future dividend payments, as well as increase NAV per share, so there is a logic there. Plus the spread on FAIR is >2%. Volta by comparison is

Gallmat,

Does he though? How much analysis have you read from ST beyond what's already been written by a broker beforehand? Arix (ironically) is one exception to this. And Kromek is another (dear to Skid35 if I remember rightly). But let's say 90%-95% of ST's tips are already covered by Cenkos/CG/Finncap/WHI and fair play he does condense it into a format suitable for less sophisticated PIs, but there's quite a bit of regurgitation, after the fact.

If you ever listen to him on a podcast he talks a very good game and I've read both his books and they are both a very good read and useful, to be fair. And also to give credit where it's due he's managed to pick Bargains of the Year which by year end each year have in aggregate returned good returns (Arix being a laggard from the 2022 stable and 2023 stable too I think)

When I realised I was paying for regurgitation I stopped paying for IC, and instead pay for Research Tree and get updates straight from the horses' mouths instead.

GLA

Oldbut, A dividend of 5% at today's share price would cost £0.43m. Even if I'm out by a factor of 9 on my FY2025 forecasts there's a more than fully covered dividend of 5%.

Presentation on the FY23 results:

https://vimeo.com/846216179/82b4670dce

Https://bolt.eu/en/blog/meet-mikko-salovaara-new-cfo/

"we’re now on track to become the first European mobility platform to be fully profitable within the next 12 months."

"Having a great service and attractive prices drive our industry-leading growth, and we’re proud to now serve 150 million customers across 45 countries. This extraordinary scale will allow us to reach profitability over the next 12 months. Bringing Mikko’s expertise on board at this crucial time for the business will be invaluable as we continue our focus on long-term and sustainable growth and begin our preparations for IPO.”

Meanwhile Uber is up 50% in 4 months (March - July 2023) meaning that the December 2022 write downs of TMT's holdings in Bolt now look well below fair value. Once this has IPO'd then it will be mark to market.

Exciting times ahead!

i'm not a holder of optibiotix but happened to read their rns and i couldn't help but feel the (very) strong read across into microsalt. if sugar (+ artificial sweeteners) and salt are the evil duo harming humans, then this is our brother in arms in the battle for less unhealthy food habits.

opti's mar.cap has quadrupled in the past few weeks (up 44.7% yesterday) on the back of possible potential deals, as well as actual deals. (read the rns but they're involved with many global food players in kelloggs, nestle, coca cola , firmenich, tereos, cargill, arla ,tate and lyle, agropur, givaudan, tata)

https://*********************/newsfeed/article/optibiotix-health-sweetbiotix-overview-1945766

microsalt is at last valuation 6.5p (nav) per share so a similar quadrupling on the back of similar sorts of deals (and to mind why wouldn't there be?) would be an uplift of 20p in tek's nav taking us to 50p/share nav ceterus paribus, or an 80% discount to current share price.

i'll be keeping an eye on opti because i suspect it could go further from here. getting microsalt listed sooner rather than later could be a real game changer for tek as a focused food tech play. i do appreciate some, perhaps, less experienced investors feel once bitten twice shy about ipos. but if you consider that the ipo drought is nearing its end, and there's *a lot* of undeployed capital sitting on the sidelines. the ratcheting effect once that capital returns will be dramatic. just look at the ratcheting effect of ai on the nasdaq. q4 22 to q3 23 is a 4 bagger for nvidia for example. the question to ask yourself is does microsalt help solve the salt problem? does it have backing from big players and is it being rapidly commercialised? does the parallels to sweeteners and the trajectory of similar companies tell us something about the future trajectory of microsalt?

gla

Superb result in my opinion:

LendInvest has reported -

1. FY23 AuM growth of +21% to £2.6bn

2. PBT in line with FY23 guidance at £14.3m

3. FY23 DPS of 4.5p.

The group’s revenue disclosure has changed to focus on net operating income instead of gross revenue, and on the new basis, FY23 net revenue increased +8% yoy to £54.7m, with growth of +38% in BTL driving the performance. Through the currently challenging market conditions, management has continued to focus on selectively scaling the platform, and the launch of the specialist homeowner solution in December 2022 was the primary driver of the opex increase that led FY23 adjusted EBITDA to £14.3m. FY23 reported PBT of £14.3m then benefitted from £5.1m of fair value gains on pipeline hedges, and the proposed DPS of 4.5p represents +2% yoy growth.

On a 51p buy seems incredibly good value. TP 300p.

my estimates/forecasts are derived from many hours of careful reading of align's reports, from info from kazera rnss, and from read across values from similar businesses e.g. angloamerican, base resources and kenmare. they are my estimates and forecasts but they are predominantly based on my interpretation of *facts* and i am more than happy to discuss these facts and assumptions. i am an optimistic person and i am looking for the overlooked value in my investments. but i do try to make all my assumptions explicit as i write, and temper my optimism, so keep it as evidence based forecasts and not just guesses - and if you have the capability to follow the numbers you can agree or disagree, as you like. isn't that what this forum is for? but i've reached a point where i'm now just permanently filtering people who question my posts but don't back up their constant doubt/negativity with any facts - or figures. why are you here?

look at this week alone. when you see the md commit £40k of his own money (bear in mind in 2022 he took just £70k salary), and when you see the guys who've offloaded 29.9% for 1.5p/share and then buy back more saying we can't believe we can buy back in at these prices. i'm sorry, but when i say a share price of 0.77p for kzg is ridiculous, i'm not just saying it for drama or effect, it's because i believe it. and i've put my money where my mouth is. and it seems - by the end of this week at least - i'm in good company.

best wishes to all kzg holders who actually want to be kzg holders, i think we can certainly say it's a happy friday. for the rest, why don't you just sell up and leave? i'm sorry kennedy ventures all those years ago was a pup. but here we are in 2023, and you either believe in the future of kzg or sell and leave. i think dennis edmonds is doing a good job, and i ask him what i think are tough questions, although i would never divulge the details here. i've developed quite a smell-o-meter for bs over my years of investing. reading *************.com each day has helped in that area.

may you have a good weekend, but i'm actually looking forward to monday.

This video is worth a watch - Matthew Saperia Real Estate Analyst Peel Hunt:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNaR1xv7nu4

Key points: the bad news is baked in. More pain to come in H2 2023 but looking ahead on a 5-10 year swap rate the short term base rate movements aren't actually that relevant.

"Cautiously optimistic" - why?

a/ contrarian bet - most underweight sector in Equity investors

b/ 40% discount to sector

c/ Cyclical low point

d/ Should buy on a Medium to Long term view

e/ structurally supported sectors beds/sheds/meds is about 50% of sector and these are resilient another 25% is London

f/ Growth potential on top of attractive yield at least 1000 bps above base rates on average.

g/ "Flight to Quality" in the office space is a trend.

GLA

Dartron, if the holdings were different the Tobacco majors might snap this up - they certainly have the past track record of acquisitions - and are focused on future markets post "combustibles" as they so delicately describe ciggies.

But Sandy owns 57% so any kind of hostile takeover is impossible and thus it turns to whether he would sell. My instinct is he enjoys what he does too much to sell it at any price. Having said that his holding is worth £75m at today's prices so if he were offered £150m to sell who knows - I know what my answer would be if I were in his shoes :)

If we all got taken out at £2.20/share I'd be happy with that too.

I've just topped up at 7.68p - very surprised to have been able to add at such a low price. Looking across at SLP and THS both are in the doldrums too about 30% down..... and they pay dividends too! This in turn connects to the doldrums of PGM pricing particularly rhodium down 75% over 2 years.

For those who believe in the investment thesis that better recovery of tailings and processing of waste will be increasingly important forms of metals mining JLP is the clear beneficiary of this tailwind.

GLA

To nearly hit the copper target despite this year's disruption is a superb outcome.

To exceed the PGM and chrome 11% over target is excellent news.

Outlook for FY2024 and the strategy through to 2025 looks great too.

I decided to top up again and before doing so I re-ran my forecasts for FY2024 (y/e June 2024) and FY2025

Today's Market Cap £7.2m

Income Streams FY2024 & FY2025:

1. $13m Cash receipts from Xinjian for the sale of the Aftan Lithium/Tantalum holding. (Cash equals 160% of the current share price… i.e. 1.2p cash/share). The carrying cost of Aftan was $1.8 million so there is an $11.2m profit on disposal – assume sale is booked in FY2024.

2. 60% Inland Diamonds from Deep Blue Minerals (Alexcor) (FY2024 GP $0.4m; FY2025 GP $0.8m*)

3. 60% Coastal Diamonds from Whale Head (FY2024 GP $0.6m; FY2025 GP $1.2m**)

4. 60% HMS from Whale Head (FY2024 GP circa $1.8m; 2024 GP circa $3.6m**)

5. 2.5% NSR for Tantalum/Lithium from Xinjian (FY2024 GP $0m; FY2025 $1.2m***)

6. 8% interest on o/s from Xinjian will be worth about $0.4m in FY2024 (End of Jan $9.3m x 8% x ½ assuming paid throughout 2023)

7. Less 2023 Overheads assuming to be higher @ $2m

FY2024 Net Profit $12.4m (PE = 0.8X ..... £7.75m earnings PBT)

FY2025 Net Profit $4.8m (PE = 2X..... £3.7m PBT)

Y/E 2023 cash balance circa £8m based on earnings, full payment for Aftan

Target PE of 6 is a minimum, and suggests a TP of 2.25p/share but noting the upsides below.

Notes:

* - assumes zero diamond production Jan - June 2023; steady state therefter.

** - assumes radiation issue curtails production until Jan 24. Best case is production starts August 23. Assumes no VHMs.

*** - assumes production begins Q3 2024

Upside potential: (beyond forecast)

1. Can the HMS scale beyond the current operation? (6000 tonnes/month on a 1.2MT resource which replenishes by wave action 4X suggests a 67 year mine life)

2. The 2.5% revenue share from Aftan has upside potential if the Align report is to be believed.

3. The value of AMS introduced opportunities? (if you believe that's their intention!)

4. KZG get taken out? Push down to 0.75p makes a 1.5p/share offer seem attractive ("100% upside")

5. VHMs - Valuable Heavy Mineral Sands at Whalehead - utile, zircon, and monazite - would double revenue with cost increasing by an estimated $66k/month ($4m equipment amortised over 5 years) so would take $300k/month profit to $533k/month - or $2.8m/year additional profit through VHMs. (58% increased profit)

6. Lastly, sitting on a pile of cash and being cash generative there are many "bombed out" resource opportunities that KZG could buy into. Perhaps the Kenyan Rare Earths opp rears its head again?

GLA

Very interesting to watch this detailed presentation. Some impressive presentations from different key people within VLG and it was very useful to hear presentations on the different products and parts of the business.

I look at this more positively in that it is likely to be cases where the risk of dealing with fixed income cases have caused Bond Turner to reject cases in the past as too risky. My impression is that many impecunious drivers will be non-native speakers particularly in London. It's fair to say it's a big deal for ANX, because to RNS some news then it must be materially important to the price of the share.

Presenting the Bolt 6 scooter at Move 2023:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1Ncun_EJ94

Peking

>>>Hugely disappointing ytd return

Really? Anuvia had been marked down 30% as at Q1 2023 so accounted for 2.1% of NAV or 1% of the share price. Is 1% hugely disappointing? If you can keep it in perspective this failure, whilst unwelcome, is hardly catastrophic - and the 6% drop in share price since Q1 update is an over reaction, especially when you further consider the accretive buy backs actually more than offset this loss.

If you look at the co-investors in Anuvia there was plenty of smart money participating in the series D round of Anuvia. It achived $25m of sales in 2022 but went back to the market in Q1 2023 for a series E round.... no dice. Most fertiliser plays have done terribly in 2023 e.g. Emmerson down 60% YTD, or giant CF in the US down 12%. One might think fertiliser to be a buoyant area for investment in a world where Russia and Ukraine are at war and climate change wreaks havoc.... but seemingly not, or not yet.

Given the strong macro tailwinds behind RSE's investments, the continuing need for energy security, and in 2023 we start to see the impact of the IRA, I'd be very surprised if the Board are under pressure to wind this up. I look forward to the H1 update.

Hi Damofarl, good feedback - decided questioning the realisation buybacks is a battle not worth worrying about.

Today had an eenie meanie between a further top up on either FAIR or DEC and came down on DEC's side. DEC's capital appreciation tipped it for me but remain with a large holding here. Have you looked at Amedeo (AA4) at all? I bought in and sold back out on some erroneous news about the future of the A380s but am starting to think about Airline Leasing as a 3rd high yield strand to diversify into. Was interested in your view?

Hi EV_Bull, I used the number of shares in June to do the calculation but today used 8.74% of the market cap which according to Google Finance is A$19.68m. (I did think blimey Evergreen is down 2/3 in a month!). I've double checked on the ASX itself and the market cap is A$65.18m. Note to self - don't trust Google Finance!!!

So re-running the numbers each KDNC share you bought today you're paying 0.4p in the pound for Amapa - and get Sonora thrown in for free.

i.e. £1.1m for a share of Amapa worth £253m and a share of Sonora (allegedly) worth zero.

@the Moaners you can moan moan moan all you like, and Kiran is this that or the flipping other.

But today's share price makes no sense whatsoever - fill your boots - the price must go up from here because it is at an insane level.

GLA