Member Info for Agricore

I last posted this and made calculations on the 9th June 2023 when the value of Amapa was £1.2m higher than today. The discount to "fair value" has gone from 3X to 4X in a month - on no news (good or bad).

One of the best ways lay bare the opportunity of Amapa is to strip out KDNC's publicly listed holdings and cash from the market cap of KDNC is £11.94m (all valuations as at 14th July 2023)

EMH 7.2% holding worth £5.95m

EG1 8.7% holding worth £0.9m

HAS 1.9% holding worth £1.64m

Sonora worth £0m (let's suppose the worst)

Leaves £3.45m. Leaving aside the interesting topic of whether the above share prices are "fair" (for example EMH has a NPV10 of $1,217m which equates to a stake worth £70m not £5.95m) the NPV10 of Amapa is $949m* and a 33% share of that equates to £253m. (*this excludes the $28m savings identified moving the railway in the 28th May RNS)

£3.4m for a £253m of Amapa. Even following the broker note weighting of a "20% chance of success" suggests KDNC is undervalued by 4X (i.e. 25.5p is "fair"). Even at today's bombed out valuations, and even assuming 1/5 of Amapa, and assuming further savings therefore movements to the Amapa NPV can't happen (hint: they did a fortnight ago).

I was also interested to spot Amapa isn't Kiran Morzaria's first mine renovation project. He has a past track record as FD in renovating and bringing Vatukoula gold mine back to life - I found this weird narrated video from 2009 which describes the story: https://slideplayer.com/slide/5748591/

GLA

@Davidspell - it's in a SIPP - so no tax deducted.

@Bbrink - my figures are skewered? Well, it seems your words are skewed! Let's assume in my scenario the cash gets put in a shoe box. Or go find us a 16% cash ISA.

Here's some food for thought:

At a 16% yield not investing dividends in DEC you'll double your money in 6.66 years. (6 years 9 months effectively)

Reinvesting that yield quarterly however and that drops to 4.41 years. (4 years and 6 months effectively)

That doubling assumes DEC's shareprice in July 2027 is still 88p a share.

There's a moment of silence.

Then the whole Boardroom at DEC simultaneously burst out laughing.

GLA

Referring to the 2022 annual report I think they already know what they need to do.

https://ether-assets.ams3.digitaloceanspaces.com/arix/1.-Arix-Bioscience-Annual-Report-2022_Web-Optimized.pdf

Page 3 - Goals - Achieve Double Digit NAV per share growth on a rolling 36 month basis.

But how?

Page 6/7 - Chairman's statement - buy backs of >10%, and a strategy of casting the net wider to get more shots on goal plus participate more actively in listed markets stakes in companies with attractive M&A potential in the near term.

That all makes sense to me.

But have the investment team delivered against the Chairman's vision?

Great find Rivaldo, thanks.

I'd not really appreciated until I looked at their web site the applicability goes beyond floor tiles - walls, furniture, worktop surfaces - the technology has a vast application beyond the current focus. Also the aesthetic is impressive!

See: https://www.alusid.co.uk/projects/

Lots to like about quiet unassuming FIPP.

Comparing the Dec 22 portfolio to the June 23 portfolio the listed component has grown from £45.2m to £71.2m.

A 57% gross rise - although portfolio realisations/investments need to be considered. Only one I can see is Harpoon 28/3 RNS for $3.5m.... so a 48% rise YTD then. IMPRESSIVE! Works out at 17p/share.... which tallies to the just under 18p SGD27 calculated.

This is for LISTED investments. Listed means we could have bought more of them easily. And didn't.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing you might say - but where's the conviction? That's what we're paying for surely?

Well, we have a m-o-m net 8p/share rise in listed holdings in today's NAV update.

The strategic review announcement is good to hear and long overdue.

I've not really understood the rationale of sitting on a huge pile of cash year after year. In June 23's NAV it's 78p a share by my reckoning.

Surely when biotech is so bombed out it's time to go shopping.

Looking forward to seeing these.

I hold both and you might be right. Molten has a deeper discount due to despair. I don't think AUGM has seen despair.

It has had a much shallower downward trajectory.

Personally I'm glad to hold both and plan to continue to do so.

Bigbang, you’d need to check with a more experienced person like tulsatel but I think Bollinger’s rectum is what happens when you sit down after searching everywhere for the champers and in a moment of realisation you say oh bugger

Https://lucyd.co/pages/live-events

This is a series of recordings which are interesting (for investors) for a number of reasons. Firstly top left you can see the number of visitors, and while this changes throughout each video are something like 20-50 visitors at a time so therefore there are audiences in the thousands watching these. I've never sat through a live online shopping event, and I've watched more of the TV shopping channels from watching the BBC's apprentice than I've actually watched those channels, but it makes sense to me that this is the modern Gen Z way to do the same sort of thing could be via a Facebook or Insta live event. I also do know the huge extent that the Americans buy things on impulse from Shopping Channels, and their modern equivalents..... so it's encouraging to see a/ the numbers of visitors b/ the enthusiasm/approach of the presenters c/ what should convert into sales and returns.

Another Channel for the 21st Century was this link https://lucyd.co/pages/store-locator

So 202 stores at the current count including stores in Europe, Australia, but of course a deeper level in the US and more so Florida, and particularly Miami. Seems to me for investors that tracking the (growing) number of stores is a good proxy for guaging its continuing success.

Lolly,

>>Guident & Microsalt aren't listed, so I'd argue their valuations are much less robust

Less robust? By less robust I think you mean the discount is a valid discount i.e. there's something you don't believe is true about that NAV. But what do you disbelieve?

>>(& volatile).

Wrong! Public markets are typically more volatile - because they are public!

>>A discount to NAV is commonplace currently, particularly with the type of shares TEK holds.

True. It's a banal comment, but true.

>> in TEK's case right now and could well narrow, that's not a given. Just cos something looks cheap, doesn;t mean it won't get even "cheaper".

So you think it could go up, or it could go down....... And when it was only halfway up it was neither up or down. Sounds like a nursery rhyme "The Grand Old Duke of York, he had 10000 men...."

A NAV is a historic fair value so the trick to successful investing is working out what you don't believe but also what's not yet in the NAV but happening before your eyes. What do you see happening before your eyes Lolly? In this thread I've explained 8 relevant areas of progress happening before my eyes..... ******in the last 2 months***** All of which should be accretive to the NAV.

LUCYD - TEK holds 5,189,086 shares @ $0.85 = £3.5m

BELL - TEK holds 15,138,767 shares @ £0.40 = £6.05m

Microsalt - TEK holds 97.2% = £13.37m

Guident - TEK holds 100% = £14.65m

Total NAV = £37.57m

Market Price = £17.37m

In the last 6 days the discount to NAV has increased from 51% to 53.7%, despite a 33% rerate of BELL, a highly successful Miami Swim Week:

(do you like the catwalk backdrop? https://twitter.com/LucydEyewear/status/1678503383538319361/photo/3)

At 10p a share you are effectively doing a BOGOF. Which free pair of companies would you pick? LUCYD and Microsalt or Belluscura and Guident?

Ivans,

>> Will we get riverfort to convert their CLN ? These CLN will kill sp.

Get them?! What, send the boys round?! Fortunately EQT doesn't need to resort to any roughneck tactics. The final Riverfort repayment is this month.

"Each instalment of the Loan Facility will have a maturity date of 12 months from the date of advance"

The CLN was taken March 2022 with a 4 month grace period.

So.... there is no CLN.

Nothing new in that interview but good to hear Dennis give an update nonetheless.

So to contextualise this KZG at DeepBlue now has the GoldRush equivalent of Dave Turin's secret weapon:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_ytSWsxvKQ

And if you think of Tony Beets latest excavator - that's a 70 tonne digger - so will make short work of overburden:

https://www.volvoce.com/-/media/volvoce/global/global-site/product-archive/documents/07-crawler-excavators/04-volvo-b-prime-series/v-ec700b/v-ec700b-21b1002197-2007-04.pdf?v=FH1HPw

GLA

Idex already have 13 energy-from-waste facilities.

So they've just decided to acquire a 14th (today, from EQT), and they have 12 more (after the 1st Limoges Métropole was awarded RNS27/03/23 for conversion by EQT). Doesn't seem unreasonable to think this alone could rapidly provide a pipeline of work. A £200m pipeline for EQT.

60 years old, 33 power plants, 18000 maintained buildings, 5900 employees

If you've been to Paris you'll probably have seen "La Defense" - this is one of its flagship network projects.

https://www.idex.fr/en/our-achievements/paris-la-defense-district-frances-largest-cooling-and-heating-network

It's proven to be beyond the realms of my capabilities to obtain their 2021 accounts (the French companies house web site is beyond appalling) but they must be turning over £250m+ minimum to be operating 33 plants and 18000 buildings.

Crocqman

>> Just to add, as pacifico rightly says, we do not know the costs involved to EQT under the agreement through to 2025. From a cashflow perspective, this will not be seen until next Q at the earliest.

We do know what the costs will be. We know that the costs will be time aka "engineering and licensing" per the RNS. We know the duration (18 months) And we know EQT's wage bill. The maths therefore are fairly simple.

GLA

Let alone the fact that BELL's Nomad App helps manage and monitor the device as a means of telemedicine.

Air Liquide provides oxygen to 200,000 Europeans (and to 1.8m worldwide). Air Liquide's 2022 sales of gases to Europe (including oxygen) was $11.4bn. Linde's European healthcare sales were $1.1bn/year (mainly oxygen).

To give you an idea why BELL will absolutely fly in Europe this is what their web site say is currently available:

"

Concentrators

The oxygen concentrator is the most common of all the systems used in home medical care. It is an electrical device that separates the oxygen from the ambient air. The principal benefits of the system are that it is economical, requires very little maintenance and continuously provides the patient with oxygen.

The concentrator weighs 15-25 kg and is stationary as it must be connected to an electrical power source to work. The oxygen concentrator is therefore almost always used in combination with some mobile system with oxygen in a cylinder.

"

Compare that to BELL's 5KG and comes with a rechargeable battery (doesn't require mains power), is why BELL is a game changer for both Linde and Air Liquide, but most importantly for all those people suffering with COPD

Europe in 2020 there are 36m by 2050 there will be 50m:

https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/58/suppl_65/OA2866#:~:text=In%202020%2C%20we%20estimate%20there,with%20the%20highest%20projected%20impact.

GLA