Member Info for Agricore

Absolutely gutting news on the KSZ :(

Who'd have thought that Graphite could be mistaken for Nickel.

Never trust what you read in the papers.

IX. market cap is now £19.75m

Enphys NAV 31/12/22 = $10.4m

Enphys is NASQDAQ listed so because it is a public listing you could think of this as "liquid". Removing the liquid to get to a net NAV is a good way to understand the value here.

Enphys' NASDAQ listing has seen a 4% rise since 31/12/22 (to 07/07/23 approx. $10 to $10.40)

Its component to NAV has increased from $10.4m to $10.8m or £8.5m.

Deducting that from IX's marcap leaves £11.25m

The 31/12/22 NAV of $63.84m less Enphys of $10.4m is $53.44m

Combined with the WasteFuel's Series B uplift of $84.78m is $138.22m or £108.83m

So IX is trading even after the recent price rises is still on an *astonishing* (11.25/108.83) = 89.66% discount to NAV.

Or put another way the NAV/share is £1.27/share + the £0.126/share of Enphys is total NAV = £1.396/share

With news due in H2 2023 from Enphys, WasteFuel (remember COP28 is 4 months away and is in UAE where of course WasteFuel is working with Averna) and others - this has further to run.

GLA

Never trust what you read in the papers.

IX. market cap is now £19.75m

Enphys NAV 31/12/23 = $10.4m

Enphys is NASQDAQ listed so because it is a public listing you could think of this as "liquid". Removing the liquid to get to a net NAV is a good way to understand the value here.

Enphys' NASDAQ listing has seen a 4% rise since 31/12/23 (to 07/07/23 approx. $10 to $10.40)

Its component to NAV has increased from $10.4m to $10.8m or £8.5m.

Deducting that from IX's marcap leaves £11.25m

The 31/12/23 NAV of $63.84m less Enphys of $10.4m is $53.44m

Combined with the WasteFuel's Series B uplift of $84.78m is $138.22m or £108.83m

So IX is trading even after the recent price rises is still on an *astonishing* (11.25/108.83) = 89.66% discount to NAV.

Or put another way the NAV/share is £1.27/share + the £0.126/share of Enphys is total NAV = £1.396/share

With news due in H2 2023 from Enphys, WasteFuel (remember COP28 is 4 months away and is in UAE where of course WasteFuel is working with Averna) and others this has further to run.

GLA

BigBang, another of my holdings had an actual yesterday and shot up 110% - not dissimilar to TEK.

Another positive read across for RGL:

CLS Holdings - another office REIT - taken from Questor:

"Last month, the FTSE 250 member sold three properties for £49m, including one in Westminster and one in Maidenhead, an average 7.5pc premium to their stated book value (rather than the whacking discount suggested by the share price).

It then followed up with a 30-year lease deal in Essen, Germany, to mean the building, known as the Brix, is now fully let, barely two years after its purchase with a 28pc vacancy rate.

Granted, Essen might not be New York or London, but this knocks a bit hole in many a bear case on commercial property, especially as real estate deals are getting done, despite fears that the asset class could prove illiquid during a period of rising interest rates and economic uncertainty.

Moreover, while it is tempting to argue that commercial real estate is dead and buried, these transactions beg to differ and this column still questions whether working from home is here to stay.

Workers may have the whip hand at the moment, when unemployment is low and the scramble for talent is on, but if a recession ever lands then showing your face in the office on a much more regular basis might just be the smart thing to do.

Add to this, further interest rate increases could hold back the shares in the near-term, for sure, but the future may just not be as black as the valuation suggests.

Questor says: CLS simply feels undervalued."

NB the partnership with Privato who operate 105 stores in Fixed Based Operators terminals with 9,000 flights Annually with an average of 8.2 passengers per flight equates to nearly a million high net worth individuals. (105x9000x8.2)

As a holder of both IX and IPO, today's news of a £10m upround with BP participating caused IX to rise by 110% (settling at +90% at close). The announcement caused the NAV to more than double (so even at a +90% share price its discount to NAV this evening is greater than it was 24 hours away before its announcement. The types of holdings in IX are not dissimilar to the decarbonisation holdings here (e.g. Oxccu/Hysata). In fact I've just checked and there was an A series round 1 month ago for Sustainable Aviation Fuel with participation by ENI! See: https://www.ipgroupplc.com/news-and-events/portfolio-news/2023/2023-06-07

It's tangible proof of the hidden value due to the US's IRA (inflation reduction act) creating vast opportunities for decarbonisation opps like IPO's OXCCU or Hysata, where the EU and other countries are copying the US to drive up incentives.

This should be incredibly positive for IP Group!

As a holder of both IX and RSE, today's news of a £10m upround with BP participating caused IX to rise by 110% (settling at +90% at close). The announcement caused the NAV to more than double (so even at a +90% share price its discount to NAV this evening is greater than it was 24 hours away before its announcement. The types of holdings in IX are not dissimilar to the decarbonisation holdings here. It's tangible proof of the hidden value due to the US's IRA (inflation reduction act) creating vast opportunities for decarbonisation opps.

Yet RSE is about 10% down in the past 6 months despite substantial buybacks and increases to NAV.

Interesting too to read Great Portland's trading update today for the quarter to 30 June 2023.

"Against a challenging macro-economic backdrop that is placing upward pressure on yields, particularly for non-prime spaces, we are pleased with our strong operating performance. Whilst our low levels of vacancy means we have limited space to lease, we had another active quarter with £6.4 million of new leasing deals at rents 17% higher than the March 2023 ERV, reaffirming our confidence in our rental value guidance of 0% to 5% growth for the financial year. We are also encouraged by the further £5.3 million of rent that we currently have under offer, some 13% ahead of ERV."

And Workspace Group's too - London's leading owner and operator of sustainable, flexible work space, provides a business update for the first quarter ending 30 June 2023.

"· Resilient levels of customer demand with 260 new lettings completed in the quarter, with a total rental value of £7.0m per annum

· Like-for-like occupancy stable at 89.2%

· Like-for-like rent roll up 3.2% (£3.2m) in the quarter to £103.6m

· Like-for-like rent per sq. ft. up 3.3% in the quarter to £41.73"

Seems to me the office market is much more widely buoyant than RGL's current share price might suggest.

6. Guident is granted an extension by the US Patent and Trademark Office to its patent to include Drones and Robots (not just automated vehicles)

7. Lucyd announces a partnership with Reebok - another brand from Authentic Brands who generate more than $25 billion in global annual retail sales and have an expansive retail footprint in 150 countries, including 10,800-plus freestanding stores and shop-in-shops and 380,000 points of sale.

So amazing progress on many fronts. Not a single item to explain a 36% drop. Nor a 1% drop.

8. A final (bad) news LUCY raises $4.7m @ $1.05 with 1 warrant @ $1.05. This has diluted existing holders (including TEK). TEK now "only" owns 62% and that would fall if (once) warrants are exercised. The fundraising extends the runway by 15-18 months for LUCY. I see that as a good thing. It has meant LUCY's share price has dropped. But do the maths, and the TEK price is an over reaction to this (let alone that the runway enables time for growth and profitability which makes LUCY cash generative).

I viewed today's 10p buy price as a great opportunity to top up and average down. Even factoring in today's 82c price for LUCY and 30p for BELL, this is simply too cheap and ignores the continuing progress. Listing out the progress here over *JUST* the past 2 months hopefully adds a little perspective to why you should probably feel better than you do about TEK right now.

GLA

A 36% drop in 2 months? ..TEK has dropped from 15p to 9.5p

As of 6th July 2023 the NAV looks like this:

LUCYD - TEK holds 5,189,086 shares @ $0.82 = £3.35m

BELL - TEK holds 15,138,767 shares @ £0.30 = £4.54m

Microsalt - TEK holds 97.2% = £13.37m

Guident - TEK holds 100% = £14.65m

Total NAV = £35.91m

Market Price = £17.6m

51% discount to today's NAV (NAV is based on today's stock prices for LUCY AND BELL)

Let's think what's happened in the past 2 months which has driven a 36% drop?

1. Lucyd releases the Summer Collection at Miami Swim Week - Reigning for four decades as the swimwear industry’s leading tradeshow, SwimShow is the centerpiece of Miami Beach Swimsuit Fashion Show’s festivities. Held every at the Miami Beach Convention Center, SwimShow draws more than 7,500 swimwear buyers, manufacturers, designers, press, bloggers, influencers, fashion consultants, stylists, VIPs and other fashion industry leaders from over 60 countries.

2. Lucyd announces a partnership with Privato who operate 105 stores in Fixed Based Operators terminals FBO – It’s a terminal for Private Jets and their passengers. These FBO locations average 9,000 flights Annually with an average of 8.2 passengers per flight. FBO passengers are Ultra high net worth Individuals accounting for top .5% income earners globally

3. Microsalt expands to 8,331 new stores - 51 Fine Fare stores, 8 Trade Fair stores and 72 Big Y stores, through our partnership with US Salt. And on 17th May 400 additional U.S. retail stores including Brookshire Brothers, Pete's Fresh Market, Heinen's, Dick's Fresh Market, Zerbos, Better Health Market, Tdych's Marketplace, Associated Supermarkets and a number of other natural independent retailers across the country. And prior to that MicroSalt announced a partnership with a Fortune 500 national retailer for the development and execution of low-sodium solutions across the retailer's extensive line of private branded snack offerings. This will lead to placement of several of their snacks using MicroSalt® in lieu of traditional salt, beginning with 800 stores by Q4 2023 and likely expanding across more than 7,000 store locations thereafter.

4. Guident wins a grant from Space Florida - Scheduled to commence in early July 2023, the joint project brings together the collective expertise, resources, and vision of Space Florida, Guident Corp, and NOVELSAT to develop pioneering safety solutions for ground-based autonomous vehicles using satellite communications.

5. Jack Stein appointed Brand Ambassador and calls Microsalt a "Game Changer"

>> CONT'D

https://*********************/newsfeed/article/i-x-net-zero-plc-wastefuel-announces-10m-investment-from-bp-1926339

Using the same logic as my estimate for FY2023 and FY2024 adding in a further 2% to the 17.5% vaping growth I'd estimated for FY2024 (because my estimate of £43m Vaping revenue in FY2023H2 was actually £44.3m and I extrapolated the 35% FY2023 growth reduced by half to arrive at 17.5%)

1/ Batteries: - assuming static Y-O-Y

FY2023 Revenue £39.5m and GM of £3.9m

FY2024 Revenue £39.5m and GM of £3.9m

2/ Lighting: Suzanne spoke to a recovery of 15% growth on Pox Markets today - see: NB: replace Pox with a V (https://www.poxmarkets.co.uk/articles/new-supreme-s-bargain-brands-continue-to-drive-strong-growth-5c5d19a)

15% growth YOY is well behind the historic FY2022 (by about 30%) but I'm assuming it does not grow back this year as SUP said today it will be in FY2024 and FY2025.

FY2023 Revenue £15.4m and GM of £4.1m

FY2024 Revenue £17.7m and GM of £4.7m

3/ VAPING: based on 19.5% growth to FY2023H2's run rate.

FY2023 Revenue £76.1m and GM of £28m

FY2024 Revenue £106m and GM of £40.2m.

4/ Sports – improvements to margins were spoken of today, and the rebrand of Sci-Mx, it’s clear SUP are focused on driving growth here in FY2024. Assuming 15% growth and also a slightly higher margin (due to Whey prices reverting) - potentially this segment could be much higher in FY24, and there was a strong suggestion that an acquisition in this segment is likely too - no numbers are included here for that possibility.

FY23 Revenue £16.8m and GM of £2.6m

FY24 Revenue £20m and GM of £4m

5/ Other - YOY static.

FY23 Revenue £7.8m and GM of £0.9m

FY24 Revenue £7.8m and GM of £0.9m

6/ 6th Line – ElfBar/LostMary distribution - to be reported separately

FY23 Revenue and GM of Zero

FY24 Revenue £25m and GM of £2m

7/ Admin Costs = £18.7m. I’ve used the FY23 figure of £21.5m less the one off costs of £2.8m.

Conclusion:

My new estimate of GM (adding the above) for FY24 is £55.7m (FY23 was £39.6m GM)

And new estimate of adj. EBITDA for FY24 is £37m. (FY23 was £19.4m adj. EBITDA)

This is much higher than ED’s adj. EBITDA estimate of FY24 of £22.6m + “at least” £1m announced by Supreme today + £2m ElfBar = £26.6m. But we have seen caution in Equity Development's assessments for example in their FY2023 estimate versus today's actual, so I dare say they will catch up with new analysis closer to mine, at some point.

A £37m EBITDA would equate to a 4.5%-5% yield in FY2024 (50%-66% YOY growth in dividend) based on the 25% of net profit pay out. So in 2 years since they cut the dividend from 50% to 25% to achieve faster dividend growth they're almost back to the same dividend as FY2022!

FCF x 10 suggests a target price of 170p; EBITDA x 6 suggests a target price of 188p. Whichever metric you look at, despite a small jump today in SP this remains incredibly cheap and attractive in my view.

GLA

SteelTrader9,

Actually it's you who seems to be missing the point. Refer to Page 26 of the annual report, as well as Note 4 and Note 19.9 because there's quite a number of factors you are failing to consider or don't understand however much you think you understand how Investment Trusts work.

1/ Venture Capital fees are usually "2 and 20" (2% mgt fee and 20% of gains) so why would a lower "1.4 and 15" (with added hurdles) make you worry (alas!) for poor Alas_Smith?

2/ AUGM's Portfolio Management Fee is 1.5%, yes, but drops to 1% of NAV after £250m. On a current NAV of circa £290m that's approximately a 1.4% blended fee.

3/ The Performance Fee is calculated on 15% of cash gains i.e. that 85% of gains are kept by the company, and that this is subject to a 10% *REALISED* ROI hurdle. But also that that hurdle is subject to subsequent clawback.

4/ The hurdle was met in FY2023 on an *UNREALISED* basis on 31/3/23 so the performance fee has been provided for, but hasn't actually been paid - and won't unless and until the gains are later realised.

5/ You quote a 9.1p per share cost for FY2023 but that's not true either. Per my point 4, above, the 9.1p a share is a cumulative provision and if you look at FY2022 the provision was £15,265,000 so the performance fee for FY2023 is actually only £1,252,000 or 0.73p per share - about 12x less than what you believe it to be!

6/ Importantly there is a complete separation of duties between the Non Execs and the Portfolio Managers. The non Execs do not access/benefit from any performance fee, so AUGM has checks and balances.

To conclude, AUGM's fees aren't as harsh as you believe them to be. And in AUGM's defence is possibly one of the only VC ITs which has (somehow) pulled through FY2023 still making a gain. I do appreciate it's a smaller gain than FY2022 but it's an impressive performance nonetheless. Paying a slice of excess gains when I'm making a minimum 10% ROI seems a very reasonable deal to me. What FinTech investment vehicle would offer better terms than AUGM? What FinTech IT outshone AUGM in performance in 2022?!

Today's update shows even my more optimistic estimates were short of reality. The forward FY2024 estimates from SUP are about 10% higher (@£20.4m) than my previous estimates (except they've recognised the £4m sale of assets in FY2023). Tomorrow's presentation will be very interesting indeed.

Wakey, if they offered 1.5p then they could buy the remaining 70.1% of the company for just under £10m.

If they did they would have paid £15m total, for cash assets of around £1m, debt owing of £7m, equipment about £2m, and obtained DeepBlue worth maybe £4m (at 6xEBIT) and WhaleHead valued at £90m (60% of NPV £150m at 10% discount). Or (if Align's numbers are to believed) they take back Aftan because it's worth substantially more than the $13m it was sold for. (Align estimated it at 6x earnings therefore $21m)

By my reckoning a 1.5p offer equates AMS obtaining the WhaleHead HMS operation for free. The economics of the purchase seem to stack up which is why I believe it could happen. Also, the very fact they made the £5m purchase (for 29.9%) from Align suggests the concept of introducing projects (for funding) is baloney.... why? You don't need to own shares in your JV partner to introduce projects. Why would they not just use their spare £5m for those projects? The only explanation which makes sense to me is a prelude to a takeover bid.

My thoughts/estimates are:

1. DeepBlue: 450 carats @ $250/carat and operating costs of $45k/month (Align's estimate +50%) = £53k gross margin/month or £0.64m. Dennis states DeepBlue "substantially covers costs" so perhaps I'm being too pessimistic.

2. Interest accruing. Remaining $8.8m @ 8% equates to £558k/year. (Corporate costs in 2022 were circa £1.1m)

3. Further payments have been made. Last payment milestone was $3.5m it's now $4.2m. There remains the right to take back Aftan which is an intriguing possibility.

4. Align is out; AMS is in. The strategic investor is now on board. I'd be very surprised if a takeover bid is not made by AMS. All this crap about introducing projects to KZG makes no sense to me. It's a prelude to a takeover. Let's see what price people here will accept?

5. Let's not forget Align TRIPLED their money on KZG. 0.5p to 1.5p. Let's also not forget AMS were able to spot value at 80% premium to the market price..... in other words if they accumulated holdings by buying up the moaners' shares they calculated to obtain 29.9% that the share price would inevitably rise BEYOND AN AVERAGE OF 1.5P.

6. Let's not forget that the cash runway stretches out years ahead. There's no financial pressure by today's news.

7. Radiation permitting is 3-9 months and may not be needed at all (we know in a month's time). So Summer 2024 is the worst case scenario.

8. The HMS estimate which dropped from 65% to 50% (due to the change of the permit area) but is now 10% higher at 55%. That's a substantial improvement! I also hold BSE where their current HMS percentage is 3-4%!!!

9. Appreciate the revenue is stated to increase to $320/t but has anyone worked out what means for profitability? My estimate is that capital costs (therefore depreciation) rise by £4m with a 10 year life which equates to an on-cost of £33k/month. The additional $160/tonne * 6000 tonnes less the £33k increases the GROSS MARGIN BY £723k or ****250%**** to an approximate £1m/month. I did wonder why D.Edmonds was being coy about higher value HMS.

10. Interesting too that the tromel is being introduced which was the reason for the 2k to 6k increase. So that will be hot commissioned in September, so the ramp up time is faster once we do get going.

I've topped up today at 0.775p and following the maths there's clear reasons to do so.

For those who think "they no this is going no where", well, thank you for your misplaced negativity and allowing me to average down today.

Good luck.

NAV 158p of which 29.3p cash. Stripping that out leave 129.7p of assets which at a market price of 98p (less 29.3p cash) of 68.7p or a net 53% discount to NAV

+117% revenue growth in top 10 holdings.

Average cash runway 29 months in top 10 holdings.

Zero debt. £50m available to support holdings.

Current share price is bonkers.

When you look at Bolt's progress in addressing some its biggest challenges (labour cost for delivery and scooter asset longevity and safety) it's extremely impressive. TMT's holding in Bolt will not be diminishing as a result.

https://tech.eu/2023/06/21/the-ship-we-were-all-waiting-for-estonia-s-starship-technologies-and-bolt-have-finally-gotten-it-together/

https://tech.eu/2023/06/21/the-new-bolt-6-scooter-knows-when-you-are-riding-badly-and-prompts-riders-to-practice-safe-parking/

Dave x2,

Agree, a lot of bad grapes - roger65 for example said he sold a few weeks ago then yesterday refers to “us investors”.

The fact they made no announcement at the Agm was that they had no update for the market. 2 months ago I spoke of several options to prolong cash and also a glimmer of hope that no funding would be needed. It might sound strange but the longer that no news occurs the better actually. Approaches like factoring (invoice finance) don’t require an RNS.