Member Info for Agricore

And we end the week with ST playing catch up and commenting on BELL this evening.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/09/01/profit-from-medtech-growth-with-this-undervalued-stock/

Resulting bounce to look forward to for Monday.

Have a BELL-ting weekend.

Sorry I realise I should have said Q1 FY2024 results not H1 2023, d'oh!

£1.15m uplift in the portfolio "actuals" based on (out)performance but a net £3.5m negative, or negative £2.1m once you take out dividends leading to a £2.3m drop overall in NAV.

This is mainly due to an increase to discount rates used (a theoretical measure based on the value of assets relative opportunity cost of so called "no risk" yields)

What caught my eye was:

1. Operational outperformance - underlying strength from the assets

2. BESS 94% contracted cash flows and a 8.6% levered ROI - described as "compelling returns". Commissioning on track

3. Innova returns "materially higher" than 7-8%

4. Despite higher discount rates impacting NAV the discount to NAV remains disproportionate.

5. Earnings over NTM will grow to above 100% cover so will we see dividends rise? Possibly, but TENT speaks to compelling opportunities but that can lead to NAV growth.

I'd prefer to have 94% contracted and 50% inflation linked returns on assets I'm getting for about half their actual value than anything a government would provide me at "no risk" so despite NS&I now offering 6.2% and bonds 5%ish I'm staying in my TENT.

Interestingly Mark Cudmore on Bloomberg appeared to call the market this morning. He qualified his comment as subject to today's US job report numbers but interesting that the "run for the hills" message is changing to we may have reached the end of tightening. Meanwhile up in them there hills there's an enormous pile of cash sitting on the sidelines waiting for a signal. Did that signal come this morning?

GLA

Mercedes probably spent 9 figures developing this axial flux technology - well worth a watch

https://youtu.be/HFY0cNRQjHA?si=Z4kq4fICNYN-RCct

Trade, very satisfactory, thank you. Here are my questions:

Q1: Share based payments have risen 12X year on year is this a recurring cost and why has it grown so much?

Q2: What are the plans to use the high levels of cash? Previously there was a buy back planned but not executed. Assuming you agree the current share price is very low then why can the business not buy back 10%+ of the shares in issue?

Jug, I messaged and asked the same question of Microsalt and also asked Tim who is "investor relations" and regularly posts updates on this forum. Neither answered. Hopefully you'll have more luck. Almost certainly the answer is that there is no advantage once salt is in liquid form.

Bear in mind in bread making and so on you add solid salt grains to the dough and in cheese making salt grains to the curd. If you bake salt it is still solid too. Not sure what temperatures @Hookumhall is baking at to get molten salt! Adding salt to liquids - sauces and soups for exmaple - is where microsalt would have no advantage.

GLA

Damofarl, nice seeing you here. Boring predictable visible income - with some deep value too!

The positive to take from today's RNS is that the deal is more value added than we previously knew (for sure).

The value of the integrated VCU to the end customer is longer range, cheaper to run and better performance. Without it, probably the motor is quite jerky (electric motors have lots of torque remember). The regenerative braking, energy management and throttle response therefore gives a better and smoother performance.

All in all it's a positive because the value of the deal including a VCU is probably double what it would be without it (albeit we are sharing that doubling with HCLTech a $12.8 turnover company!)

The fourth quarter is now 32 days away. Q1 2024 is just 124 days away. It's insane this remains in the 40s, but once the Purchase Order(s) land in Q4 and cash flows which we'll see in a trading update in Q1 you'll probably need a VCU to control the share price as it zooms away......

Eatstocks, your decision is whether to tap out early or keep going. For what it’s worth I believe keeping going could be the right move if you have invested long term for your 2 childrens’ future and can afford to keep going. But if you need cash short term then that’s different. Long term is probably medium term 1-2 years. Best wishes.

Incontext.

Theoretically edge saves money because desktops do spend ninety something percent of their time idle. Once upon a time there was a SETI project where you could use your pc to search for extra terrestrials when it was idle. That’s a kind of a joke in that it was “a thing” 20 years ago! But edge does the same sort of thing today. Not searching for ET but contributing processing towards business objectives - like supporting transactional processing. It’s very significant because that should mean less having to be done by servers - at greater expense.

So the fact Gartner is talking about this is a game changer in my experience.

Base resources ticker BSE who have HMS with a concentration less than a 1/10 of Kazera announce a 20% dividend yield. Are those glasses of yours rose tinted? Or not tinted enough?

Meanwhile evening after evening there’s beats on the American market Crowdstrike, chewy and salesforce just now - yet GROW remains in the doldrums despite the read across from across the pond … these companies sell into the same global markets… hello?

Really like your post from Jefferies Daddy - March/April 2020 was another blink and you missed it. Anyone who went short a few weeks after 1st Covid lockdown and initial drop would've had a right squeeze.

Here's more evidence it's aligning:

GROW are 2nd after Superdry (a launderette provider maybe?) for Broker EPS Predictions this week in IC:

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2002/01/02/latest-update-companies-smashing-broker-forecasts/

Forecast NTM EPS 22.2p from 10.1p (1 month ago)

Doesn't work that way Steph. If we are dropping out of the FTSE250 then we will be in the main market still (LSE not AIM) but not part of the FTSE250.

Https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/bushveld-minerals-value-trap-or-up

10 weeks on and what a different world it now is.

It seems lots of people are now littering this board with their positivity.

I feel sorry for those with only tiny amounts on BELL or those selling up today on (presumably) a small gain. It's now double bagged from its low, and plenty more left to come. I averaged down at its low and well in profit today.

It pays to follow the smart money, pay close attention to analysts (but form your own view), and when the smart money are also insiders and are topping up by over £0.5m, well, it's not really heads you win, tails you lose - the odds are very much in your favour. As amply proven here....

GLA

Has anyone spotted the fact that at the end of the RNS they say "Prior to the event, Diversified will publish the Company's 2023 Interim Report on its website at https://ir.div.energy/financial-info and will also make available a supplementary 2023 Interim Results Presentation at https://ir.div.energy/presentations."

This sounds like there will be some form of announcement on Friday, which means they need to refresh their presentation. Most likely a presentation for the US listing, or could be another acquisition. Either way likely to be positive.

GLA

TradeWizard, perhaps be more useful to share the links you think you've found because searching for BATM on linked in returns all sorts of irrelevant material. BATM is on LinkedIn as "Telco Systems" and web site "www.edgilityos.com"

Meanwhile I think this is a signifant article and (finally) there's what I would consider a recognised credible source who have endorsed BATM's networking technology:

https://edgilityos.com/telco-systems-recognized-in-2023-gartner-hype-cycle-for-edge-computing

Equally as significant, the very fact that Gartner is speaking to CTOs about Edge Computing and says "Edge computing is integral to digital transformation, and projects are emerging in different parts of enterprises. To avoid edge sprawl, accelerate deployments, ensure extensibility, and drive efficiency and effectiveness, I&O leaders must be proactive and create an edge computing strategy."

(Source: https://www.gartner.com/en/documents/4263499)

Until today I'd not seen any specific endorsement of Edge and the CTOs, IT managers I speak with every day hadn't heard of "Edge computing".

Positive financial progress combined with this significant endorsement makes BATM very, very interesting indeed - and a steal at 26p

Worth a minimum of 3p/share per year so boosts the valuation by 25p-30p - but it’s a minimum and while it further derisks by providing a guaranteed cash flow the 100m market size for China is worth 10x-20x the minimum depending on the terms agreed (which we don’t know yet). Assuming a 30% market share can be achieved then that would equate to 3x-6x so BELL’s valuation at £2-£2.75 a share (ignoring ancillary services the “Bell App Store”)

Gla

Christopher Mills of Hardwood speaks highly about BMK on sounds like pox but it has a V:

https://www.poxmarkets.co.uk/media/647f39eb98d6cd096c6505fc/?context=/listings/LON/BMK/multimedia/

Says he: "The business is in a pretty good place". "The accounts are quite complicated and it appears to lose money - the reason being that they have been aggressively amortising by £25m a year - but going forwards they aren't - there's only £6m-£8m amortisation"

Well if that's the case, I can't see anything about that in the interims nor in the Q3 announcement nor apparently did Equity Development get that memo either because their forecast INCREASES not decreases amortisation/depreciation by £10m in 2024!

Having said that the forecast is brighter for BMK. The business is forecast to be at a near break even in 2024 and operating FCF jumps from near zero in 2022 to £10m forecast in 2023 and £31m forecast in 2024. Hopefully that helps a rerate. C Mills is a smart guy and he can see something here.

Meanwhile it's a slow painful journey and while Equity Development, too, do paint a positive in that the YOY is a positive, for me that's like 2 steps forward and 1 step back - but we're a step ahead overall. The negative Q3 came out of nowhere and that's the problem with this company - the accounts are complicated, seems to pay a lot of tax and depreciation and while - like Mommur - it plucked at my heartstrings too, commercially it's not been great - and don't feel the conviction that I'll see any improvement soon. Also while they are maintaining their AIM listing for now, if they delisted from AIM holding a Norwegian share is a hassle.

I'd take 63p too. But fair value feels a fair way off.

Writing about BMK makes me realise I probably need to sell it sooner than it reaching 63p.