Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
.... CGEO's NAV is over double the market price and growing. A great result congrats Damofarl.
I just checked my rationale notes why I sold and the reason I sold out was just after Ukraine War kicked off and my fear that the Russians would sweep through Ukraine and then either settle some scores in Georgia, or pressurise it into cutting links with the West (tanking the economy). Clearly I got that very wrong!! I should have paid more attention during Rocky III and James Bond as to the quality of the Russian Army! :)
Meanwhile FAIR announces another 2c dividend to be paid 21st September, just 5 weeks away :)
Damofarl, I was in CGEO for quite a while and did quite a lot of analysis on it. I sold it at 25% profit but got out too early because it's 50% up since! It's a really good shout, and I should at the very least have it on a watch list. Looking at today's results NAV
Not forgetting Marc Benioff (Founder of Salesforce) is also an investor in WasteFuel.
(Source:
https://www.crunchbase.com/search/principal.investors/field/organizations/num_investors/wastefuel)
Current NAV (unaudited) is $152.52m based on NAV 31/12/22 of $63.84 + B Series UpRound of Waste Fuel $84.78m + Enphys Uplift via Enphys Mgt Co to 30% ownership $3.9m
>>They need to prove what they say they can do.
Firstly, WasteFuel will have had to prove their technology to clever people in order to secure Series B investment! And to previous investors too. As 2Phevs says this is backed by smart money, not by a lot of sparkly eyed PIs as might be true elsewhere.
Secondly, while not an investor, its partnership with Averda is significant and this will be the "proof" of the technology i.e. its first plant. They announced this partnership at COP27, and a 1st plant in Dubai, and it's reasonable to think there'll be a further announcements and showcasing at COP28 (in Dubai). Averda employs 14,000 people has annual t/o of $349.2 million, and collects 4.1 million annual tons of waste across Africa, India and the Middle East.
They do say be greedy when everyone's fearful. How much more fearful can people be about investments like this? Today's market price is at an 84% discount to fair value which suggests extreme fear.
Hi all,
Below is Jubilee's depreciation policy. Straight line (which means a fixed amount each month) and the key part is "Plant & Equipment". While I agree in theory that as output increases the apportionment gets lower, I also think the 3-8 years bit matters. In other words as output increases then potentially the lifespan of that equipment shortens (from 8 years towards 3years).
Think of Parker Schnabel on Goldrush who by turning up the speed of the conveyor, that belt breaks more easily.
For the purposes of estimating, in the absence of any specific guidance (I can't see any in the 2022 accounts) I'd treat plant & equipment as a semi variable element (50% fixed at 8 years, 50% variable down to 3 years)
Also you need to think about "impairments". Whilst this can be intangibles in JLP's case it can also apply to equipment (I read in their notes). There were no impairments in FY2022 but there were in FY2021 (of £0.45m). Impairments is where the depreciation policy has been too conservative. For example I estimated the conveyor would last 8 years and it's now 6 years old and needs replacing 2 years early. That's an impairment of it's remaining 2 year value.
POLICY:
Depreciation of plant and equipment is calculated on a straight-line basis using rates which are designed to write off the assets over their estimated useful lives as follows:
Buildings 20 years
Plant and equipment 3 – 8 years
Furniture and fittings 10 years
Motor vehicles 5 years
Computer equipment 3 years
Sorry, when I said blue tint glasses I meant blue-light filtering glasses. You use them to make your eyes less tired in front of a screen. My reading glasses appear clear to see through, but are yellowy to look at. Not truly clear or any tinted colour like would be if there were Lucyd glasses.
Blue Tint is not the same as blue-light filtering!
Adon,
Romania - 163boe/d Q1 and 139boe/H1 so Q2 must have been around 115boe/d.
Tunisia - 516boe/d H1 (plus gas) so happy with that.
Two numbers strike me as wholly unacceptable:
1. Romania $63.62 production expense - largely due to falling volumes - but the point is while SENX speak of $100m revenue yielded from Romania the profitability is simply not there. Be rid of it. Be rid of the expense. Be rid of the risk.
2. G&A costs per BOE over $22. By comparison the industry typically is somewhere $2.50/BOE to $2.00/BOE, with the range from $0.69 – $5.97/BOE. $22!!!! There needs to be some cuts to make the business viable.
https://btuanalytics.com/crude-oil-pricing/margins-are-good-in-the-oil-patch-despite-investor-indifference
For example I previously pointed out that the accountancy bill was about 6 times greater than much larger peers (I think I compared SENX vs i3 energy)
I expect today's open will be down; here's 8am....
2 other minor points:-
Worth noting the website is also updated - see: https://lucyd.co/pages/lucyd-app
I think it enhances the offering - as a buyer that new page would make me want to buy.
Second I've got "blue light filtering" on my reading glasses (which I rarely use). But I really see what Harrison Gross was talking about with the yellow tint on most blue tint glasses. Hadn't really noticed it before but it does make your eyes look a bit "malarial". If LUCY have blue tint which doesn't do this (as they claim) I can see how that would be pretty cool.
Having just downloaded the new App (Note to LUCYD users the old app doesn't update you have to download the new one) - and hooked it into my Lucyds - much more slick, with easier set up, the voice recognition appears to work better too. But otherwise the same app just tarted up (think of the app going from monochrome to photo realistic) - the millennials and gen zedders will be happy.
The interesting thing too are the plans for enhanced subscription.
People are valuing LUCY (and by extension TEK) on the "sale of smartwear" but as anyone who follows Apple knows the sale of services can be particularly lucrative. What the subscription would be and how many would pay is a moot point. Gives food for thought however.
Category 1 hazards – deemed the most serious, with the potential to cause death or loss of limb – are found in 14 per cent of private rented homes, according to Labour analysis of the latest English Housing Survey, which covers 2021 to 2022. This figure is up from 13 per cent the previous year.
Around 990,000 privately rented homes (23 per cent) fail to meet the “decent homes standard” according to the 2021-22 data – a higher proportion than in the social rented sector (10 per cent) and homes that are owner-occupied (13 per cent).
(Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rent-tenants-landlords-uk-housing-b2391050.html)
Reading back from the operational update 20th July it doesn't appear anyone has attempted to estimate the H2 results.
Not even WH Ireland. So I thought I'd try.
H2 Production:
PGMs = 24,292Oz
Chrome = 655,889 Tonnes
Copper = 1,751 Tonnes
Using the same unit revenues as H1* (PGM basket $1,453/oz, Chrome $65.81/tonne or $1777 per PGM Oz (65.81*655889 tonnes/24292ozs = $1777), Copper $6750/tonne)
* - looking at average H2 6 month commodity prices it looks reasonable to assume this.
I arrive at total revenues of $78.46m (PGM+Chrome) and $11.82m (Copper) = $90.28m
Using PGM + 10% on H1/Copper - 10% on H1 Chrome +10% on H1 (PGM Net of By Products)
$26.72m + $9.16m = $35.88m Gross Profit.
Or £28.25m
Assuming Operating Costs are static in H2 £9.6m
Operating Profit (EBIT) £18.65m
Less Finance Costs ,Tax, minority interest ~£11m
So a £11m net profit in H2 or £15m full year. Or on today's market cap of £187m that's a FY2023 PE of 12.5
Forecast FY2024:
Assuming static commodity prices.
Profit on the basis PGM target volume is static (42,000oz), Chrome is +30% to H2 FY2023, Copper is +100% to H2 FY2023. I arrive at a GP of $52m or £41m and taking Op Costs of £12m (+33%), interest/tax/minority of £9m (+20%) to arrive at ~£20m net profit or a PE of 8.4
In my numbers I exclude a number of potential upsides:
1. Zero contribution from cobalt - the circuit is built.
2. I merely follow the guidance given 20th July. Are these too conservative?
3. Given the expansion and upgrade of the Roan Concentrator copper capacity could be higher than 5,800 tonnes
4. The "advanced discussions to grow chrome to 2m tonnes"
5. The Zambia Northern Strategy
6. Other Zambian ROM (waste) opportunities
7. PGM price recovery or price spikes (JLP have 60% insulated their power supplies in SA) - EURO7 and similar are just a few years away. PGMs are used in Electrolysers and other Electrification so falling numbers of catalytic convertors doesn't mean PGM prices will remain low.
8. Copper price recovery - the electrification tailwind has to blow some time?
9. Cobalt price recovery - the electrification/battery metal tailwind has to blow some time?
10. Forward targets of 25k copper per annum from FY2025 starts to get very exciting.
Certainly the gloomy 7p market price seems to be hanging over JLP. Once the full year results are out and especially if there are clear signs of cash generation (for JLP to fund the $8m cost in the RNS 6th June common sense suggests that cash generation is nicely occuring), then on a forward 2025 PE of just 10 you'd be looking at 14p-16p share. Longer term 2026 and beyond, the growth runway could be exciting for JLP with its expertise in mining miners' waste.
GLA
Ubervalue, it's a fairly complicated picture, as you might imagine. But here's what I found:
1. There are £200m bonds - these are fixed. 5.3% due this year £100m. 6.5% due 2027 £100m. Suggesting the remainder is floating (but I don't know that for sure)
2. On the lending out - STL (Short Term Lending) is about 25% of LINV's total lending and is a 2 year maximum duration. BTL is the other 75% and is 30 year duration. £0.4bn is long duration Mortimer 2021-1 - this is (post period) off balance sheet.
3. Note 4 of the Annual Report shows assets/liabilities over 6 months, 12 months, 24 months to be broadly equal. The gist of their strategy is (largely) that the STL is on the balance sheet and BTL is off the balance sheet.
4. LINV use interest rate swaps to manage rate rise risk (described in note 4)
5. Defaults actually fell for Y/E 31/3/23 and there is quite extensive analysis in Note 19 speaking to how they determine their provision for bad debt. They use 3 levels of stress and 10 probabilities of default. The forward picture doesn't appear to be severe at least as at year end. They speak of sensitivity analysis to "SICR" (signifcant increase to credit risk) where they consider property prices, interest rates, unemployment and various indices. Under a stress scenario note 19 speaks to a £7.9m sensitivity which would be painful, but actually not all that bad. I notice the auditor signs their provisions for bad debt with a materiality of circa £0.7m.
6. In fact Finncap's forecasts see impairments remaining steady in 2024 (£5.9m); about 40% of 2023's AUM go off balance in 2024 despite overall FuM growing by 20%.
To conclude, I can't find any evidence of an impending "Silicon Valley Bank" scenario - far from it actually. The level of risk and liquidity appears well managed and that even where defaults occur because these are secured loans the 70%ish loan to value means the value of write offs (at least in FY2023) are just a few million. Moreover, because so much of the lending is going off balance sheet these risks are diminishing too.
Frames the opportunity for Enphys:
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2023/08/08/latin-america-could-become-this-centurys-commodity-superpower
Krusty, looking at GSF's update dramatic drops Qtr on Qtr for the UK and Ireland relate specifically to DC/DM/DR. (Dynamic Containment/Moderation/Regulation)
However I think GSF are (were) somewhat unique in providing these services to the Grid. As I understand it the purchase and supply of electricity itself is a separate activity and revenue stream to these - which is what BESS generally do. So TENT or Field wouldn't be affected by these price drops. I seem to remember GSF a few years ago speaking about Dynamic Containment being a big money spinner for them.
It would appear Guident is not alone in its market of remote monitoring for AVs.
Phantom Auto has raised $86m over Series A and B rounds. It acquired Voysys in Sweden last October for an undisclosed amount. It did so because they had valuable IP. Who else has that? Phantom is positioned around logistics - think forklifts, trucks that sort of thing. Not taxis, drones, UAVs like Guident - but the underlying technology is the same.
Is this a threat to Guident? Or an opportunity?
Seems to me that an offer of £14m-£21m (assuming the sale is somewhere between Guident's current NAV value or NAV+50%) for the 7 patents which includes AI-methods to monitor risk levels of multiple vehicles, a distributed information sharing system and low latency methods could be a rapid way for TEK to monetise Guident and strengthen Phantom's lead in the market. They are backed by several large VCs like Bessemer, so have the firepower.
Leaving TEK with the Shock Absorbers business, LUCY, BELL, Microsalt, plus a pile more cash (equal to between 7.8p and 11.6p per TEK share). These things can turn on a sixpence. One day there's the RNS - and then the cash.
GLA
Sources:
1/ https://phantom.auto/
2/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2020/01/17/phantom-of-the-operator-self-driving-techs-slowing-timetable-creates-opening-for-this-monitoring-and-guidance-startup/
3/ https://www.bvp.com/atlas/bessemer-series-a-investment-phantom-auto
4/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/edgarsten/2022/10/04/phantom-auto-buys-voysys-to-boost-remote-operation-capabilities/
5/ https://patents.justia.com/assignee/guident-ltd
(Source: https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2002/01/02/latest-update-companies-smashing-broker-forecasts/)
6th highest forecast EPS growth @ 34% from 5.9p 3 months ago to 7.9p today EPS next 12 months.
7.9p on a 71.2p buy is forward PE of 9.
By comparison the Nasdaq100 is on a PE of 34.9 today.
Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2002/01/02/latest-update-companies-smashing-broker-forecasts/
VLG among those forecast by IC to grow earnings.
Aggregate Broker forecast EPS next 12 months has grown from 5.3p -> 6.7p up 23%) from 3 months ago to today.
6.7p EPS on a 32p buy puts VLG on a PE of 4.77
Another presentation from CEO Frank Bedu-Addo of PDS. Q2 results out on Monday (14th)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tf8FGxVJ3SI
Nothing new - but it sums up why PDS has exciting prospects with its Phase 3 Trial and the Fast Track Designation.
Lolly,
Whilst the Edison article related to GROW, the source of the data I was quoting in Exhibit 17 was Pitchbook and was based on trends in the wider venture capital market for Q1 2023 relating to net asset values. So you've now dismissed both Bloomberg and Pitchbook as credible sources of data but have been unable, throughout, to give any cogent reason why.
This isn't about Molten, this isn't about £60k fees. This isn't about Molten's 70 holdings. Do you not remember we were discussing your contradictory dismissal and acceptance (in the same sentence) of the "totally academic" nature of net asset values? Your fantasy illogical "divestment mechanisms" for TEK too? It is only 1 or 2 posts ago, surely it's not that complicated? The reason I offered further evidence was you claimed the world had changed. Now it's proven the world of Venture Capital hasn't changed, you resort to base insults instead?
As you say, life's too short. It's past time to just put you on ignore.
Within Edison's latest note on GROW even during Q1 2023 the mix of up rounds/flat/down rounds were 72%, 10%, 19% respectively.
Source: (https://www.edisongroup.com/research/cash-is-king/32516/), Exhibit 17: Share of VC deal count by up/down/flat rounds
In other words, in 4 out of 5 times, based on $1bn of follow ons, even in Q1 2023 the valuation for further funding was was where NAV was either **holding up** or **actually too low**.
Good to see how the world treats NAV valuations in 2023 hasn't changed since Bloomberg's long term findings in 2016 despite today's stock price (which is at or close to despair based on sentiment). It made no sense it would have changed, and that's demonstrated by the facts.
Looking at Tern today reminds me of one of those fair ground rides which violently drop you back towards the ground.
Back to GROW I was encouraged to read in Edison's latest note that even during Q1 2023 the mix of up rounds/same /down rounds were 72%, 10%, 19% respectively. (The data used was from Pitchbook)
(https://www.edisongroup.com/research/cash-is-king/32516/)
In other words, 4/5 times the NAV is either holding up or actually too low. That's a very positive fact, combined with the fact that GROW has cash reserves to tread water while the market improves.