Member Info for Agricore

The broker is called Liberum.

The best illustration of the value here if Liberum's estimates are accurate is that SLP could afford to pay a 40% yield per annum dividend on current prices and that would be covered by earnings.

I agree with the analysis that rhodium won't be substituted from ICE exhausts - all focus and attention is now on R&D spending on EVs and PHEVs (a friend works for a UK car mfr and another for a US one). I also think that Rhodium ETFs will rebound as rhodium provides a reasonable inflation hedge especially at the current undemanding levels.

Analyst Dowgate valued Bell at 150p back in November 2021; a further distribution deal was signed since then, but let's say that isn't material or is negligible (constraint short term is mfg capacity surely?). So BELL is nearly fully valued and is well above NAV.

TEK mean while remains ****WELL BELOW**** NAV and well below target price. (NAV was 37.5p/share prior to the recent Bell price rise - it's nearer 40p now roughly)

So in my opinion - and based on the fundamentals - selling TEK and buying BELL would be the wrong move. Only if sentiment exceeds fundamentals will BELL do better.

Great update from IPO today. I mention this because of the read across of this similar share. The uplift in IPO's 6 month NAV is impressive and sits on a similar discount to NAV as SUPP. Both hold ONT in quite large proportion. It illustrates the point that the market will catch back up once the fundamentals are clearer.

Meant 50% upside and it's a 33% discount to NAV! D'oh! Sorry.

Compared to its peers GROW (Molten Ventures), Augmentum, or CHRY this trades at an unwarranted discount. SUPP does too but that the ghost of Neil Woodford to contend with.

If only someone would take advantage of this fact and publish comparative total cost of ownership for vanadium flow batteries versus lithium ones.

83% jump in EBT predicted for next 12 months earnings (i.e. 2022)
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2002/01/02/latest-update-companies-smashing-broker-forecasts/
0.5p puts it on a current PE of 18.

Forecast price from 2 analysts put BMN at either 20p or 30p. One bag or double bag either way things are improving here.

Well Oldbutnowisa you might need to alter your name after this morning's announcement!
I am relieved/delighted to see this morning's result/update, it's been a lonely road sticking with my belief in this share:
= Current *50%* discount to NAV
= PE of 2.5

Incredibly cheap for a growth play on green tech and health.

RNS Highlights:
· FY21 profit anticipated to be above £425m (FY20: profit £185.4m)
· FY21 Hard NAV per share* anticipated to be above 165p (FY20: 125.3p), a return of at least 31%
· Net cash and deposits of £276m at 31 Dec 2021 (FY20: £203m)
· Portfolio companies well-funded having raised over £2bn in 2021 (FY20: £1.1bn)

A great example of the lack of communication/effort is that Spark Insights is listed as a portfolio company on the AlliedMinds web site. That was sold 2 1/2 months ago , well more accurately it was swapped for Concirrus stock. Concirrus now own Spark. So why aren't Concirrus listed? Why isn't there an RNS espousing the exciting opportunity with Concirrus? In the spirit of providing information via this forum here's their website: https://www.concirrus.ai/ - impressive client list and exciting product that has the potential to disrupt the market.

Pablo - take a look at the portfolio's web sites. My take on where they are:

1. Federated Wireless - completely revamped their web site - looks very slick - looks the part, and in fact appears very encouraging. In line with expectations that this one will come good during 2022.
2. BridgeComm - out of date links, no new news since 2020. I see there's news not reported on their web site e.g.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210401005281/en/BridgeComm-Will-Commence-Targeted-Customer-Demos-of-Ultra-Broadband-Speeds-Surpassing-100GB-per-Second
Disappointing..... however that link of their latest news looks encouraging. In my opinion BridgeComm are nowhere near an IPO in 2022 - based on appearances.
3. Orbital Sidekick - again a very professional and slick web site and the last news is last summer's launch. There was meant to be a launch of a further 6 (?) Aurora satellites in early 2022. But there's no mention of this.
This video/interview is impressive:
https://orbitalsidekick.com/orbital-sidekicks-aurora-satellite-uses-technology-towards-a-sustainable-future/
It's the sort of business you want to succeed but again I don't see any tangible evidence of a 2022 IPO so my guess would be this is going to be 2023 earliest.
AlliedMinds web site? RNS updates? No! Poor communication - you get more updates from following this forum!

>>"Triple combination of PDS0101, M9241 and bintrafusp alfa appears to have a manageable >>safety profile along with early evidence of notable clinical activity"

The words "manageable safety profile" and "notable clinical activity" is nevertheless very encouraging for PDS and by extension for us NSCI holders, but most of all for HPV cancer patients. This is from the Phase 2 so they now have the Phase 3 to complete.
(Source https://meetinglibrary.asco.org/record/199070/abstract)

Forget, I am Spartacus. I am JLPPositive!

Simon Thompson tips today. Good premonition FeverClucker. Who is next on ST's list?

Which bit is incorrect GoingUnderground?

The estimate of NP is based on a mildly improving recovery rates, higher tin/tungsten prices, and improved (and consistent) volumes. All these aspects seem reasonable to assume based on this being the third year of mining and that they are addressing the historic issues they faced in 2021 and now have the support of ICD.

As for debt WRES are currently capitalising interest. Check back on their final results as you seemed to have missed this. The bulk of the é60m debt is black rock and this is at an eye watering 12% coupon. 80% of debt at 12% equates to around é5.7m. However 20% is a mixture of Spanish banks BBVA and Santander for example and the rates are far more competitive (between 1-3%). So is it not reasonable that WRes will refinance in 2022? There's a break point where they can do so (albeit at a 5% premium). If the debt can be refinanced at 2.5% (the Spanish government guarantee 80% and there are net assets on the books which far exceed the debt so if anything the 2.5% is potentially pessimistic).
Anyway on that assumption é60m @ 2.5% interest equates to é1.5m interest and the EBIT I feel is reasonable for 2022 of é2.5m starts to eat into and repay that debt.

So overall while you are right to point out this aspect I considered it and still decided to invest in W Resources. Looking further ahead there are a number of other finance options open to WRES as production, and momentum, builds.

A NAV uplift $1.29 drives a price rise of 65c on the market open? I couldn't help topping up :)

Further 10% bounce today following an ST update. For those two bought in sub 30p this is now a 50% retracement.... more upside to come and with the China issue resolved with a smart replacement, I am delighted with how this is progressing.

You absolute beauty!

This morning's announcement on the fundraising round for Bolt gives a tasty uplift of $1.29 on TMT's holding (a 56% uplift - Bolt is the 2nd largest holding). This takes the approximate NAV to $10.04 - or 26% below NAV. TMT has enjoyed years of growth and has historically been around 30% above NAV. It's therefore extremely cheap in my opinion.

The fact that NSCI's price has pro rata fallen far less than the wider biotech market is testament to the strength of the portfolio here. The AUM model is exactly the right one to have followed and my take is that the guys now running NSCI are smart and the current price is a great opportunity to top up (I have). There was a strong bounce from Arix on Monday 10th; I dare say we will see positive movements on price during this week.

Z-Score -2.2
This means its discount is well below its "usual" level of discount.... in other words it's relatively cheap! Discount to NAV is 30.9% and above its average of 26.2% while its lowest was around 17%. Much of the discount is down to it being "complex" and "opaque". The bit that is perhaps opaque is that disclosure is limited - weekly NAV updates and 6 monthly letters.
Quality exposure: Each of the 7 US firms are quality recovery buys at attractive levels
Swaptions value: See my earlier analysis on the value if the Fed raises interest rates to 1% (as seems likely) = £6 per share or 20% upside.
Dividend: 1%
Does PSH have history of Buy Backs and closing the discount? Yes.
Could PSH be a hedge in the case of a crash in 2022? Possibly - it's done this in 2020.

Conclusion: The FTSE100 is said to be stuffed full of "old industry" stalwarts. PSH is the exception then. Ackman has an amazing (although not blemish free) track record. There's upside here, but also there's limits to downside. And the swaptions give a play on increasing interest rates. I am less clear now on the direction of 2022. PSH gives me a profitable pathway for several themes which could happen.

Very nice bounce today - the 5 NASDAQ listings are all bombed out from the general negative sentiment to biotech of the past months..... so it's not that is driving this increase. Arix is under valued relative to its public listed holdings in any case.

I’m 40% battery metals eg baker steel; 15% biotech eg Arix; 10% tobacco IMB; 10% gold miners eg POLY; 10% investment trusts at large discount to NAV eg TFG; 10% technology stocks (Tek and saietta are my largest holdings); 5% misc

Gla