Member Info for Agricore

In vitro diagnostics was worth $80bn in 2020. (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-vitro-diagnostics-market-2021-123300162.html)

So it's a growing segment. Common sense tells you if you can cut down hospital visits by even a few hours (when treating patients per day is around in a hospital is £500/patient/day) it's a game changer when hospital managers look at the economics. Let alone the improved patient outcomes! Growth of 4% doesn't reflect its transformative potential:

Zvi's take on its potential:
Is it valuable for society? Excellent.
Is it important/challenge for the scientists? Excellent.
Will it make money? Excellent.

There's nothing else out there in the market. In 30 minutes you'll get a diagnosis based on your blood, spit or wee.

"Buy Low" says John Burford on a fibonacci 50% retracement:
https://www.ii.co.uk/secure/my-news-feed/analysis-commentary/chart-week-netflix-shares-are-half-price-should-you-buy-ii522739

Interesting point: at what point does a growth stock become a value stock? It reduced from a future PE of 76 to 38.

Doing a Peter Lynch: I don't rate either Disney or Amazon's offerings, while Sky (Comcast) is pretty good, I think Netflix genuinely beats the other streaming services right now, or at least is competitive. The question may come over whether they go into Gaming too?

NAV grows from 59p to 60.8p
Trading spread 30-34p. So buying at 34p is a 44.5% discount. Since this holds over £20m cash you're buying £47m of income producing assets for £7m. The Dacian oil alone provides a 14% return (about £0.8m per annum).

Costs down 10%
6E basket price up 10%
Production steady

... Really great result!

Brilliant result:
£32.6m revenue vs £32m guided. £600k ahead of expectations.
Run rate (extrapolating H2) is £37.5m revenue.
Adjusted Earnings £6.3m (?)
"Order book significantly ahead."
FY2021 result confirms this is trading on a PE of 8 in a growing company with outlook for 2022 where peers are on a PE of 20. It's safe to say this isn't gonna stay at 36p a share.

Mkt Cap is now down to £45m. Even if the worst case happens and the AISC is $1590 and total 2021 production is 84000 Ozs then my estimate of profit is (1790-1590) = $16m ~ £12m. So a PE of 3.7.

If things are at the top of guidance then 89000 ozs x (1790-1490) = $27m ~ £21m or a PE of 2.1

Whether it's misfortunate or incompetence I come back to the fact in my head that this is REALLY CHEAP!

And next year it gets cheaper - the 2022 PE (using Canaccord's estimate) is $51m ~ £38m or a PE of 1.2 and FCF is $37m.

Apart from the risk of expropriation, diminished when we operate in 3 jurisdictions, I can't see why this is so cheap even if the performance is shocking. Rather than point the finger at the CEO where's the COO in all this? I do think we'll see a board level change imminently.

Hi Vistaman, I need to better understand its agreement with the Egyptian govt - thank you. 65% tax/royalty is high but most (all?) oil producers are subject to some form of tax albeit maybe not 65%. So I don’t see that wholly explains the difference to the average. Crucial question I guess is does the Egyptian govt cover 65% of all the E&P costs too?

A way to look at ST's tips would be - only ever consider investing in his Bargain Shares of the Year portfolios - as he "owns up" to his duds on there (e.g. Arix 2021, JOG 2019) plus there are regular then and now charts so there's no hiding failures.
If you bought a basket of his Bargain Shares you would have made money I think 8 out of 9 years - and beaten the market by some margin.

Whereas bad tips not in the Bargain Shares portfolio can be (and are) quietly forgotten unless he sees there's some mileage in presenting them again as a turnaround story (like Thinksmart!)

So well depletion means 2022 H1 guidance is around 25% lower than 2021 H2 (i.e. 1,500-1,650 boepd) which was 25% lower than 2021 H1. At this stage this guidance only includes the forecast production from the existing producing wells and the forecast production from the ASD-2 development well, expected to come onstream in Q2.

Cenkos told us that UOG was trading in December 2021 at US$7,349/boepd – a significant discount to its peer group and the AIM average (US$46,416/boepd).

So assuming worst case lower production guidance (1500 boepd) means our BOEPD rises 25%. Share price has dropped 10% (2.6p to 2.4p)..... So we are now trading in Jan 2022 at around US$8,100/boepd - still a significant discount to its peer group and the AIM average (US$46,416/boepd).

So fair value is at around 12p-14p based on EV/BOEPD comparatives ...... and that's even assuming 2022 guidance worst case, plus zero success for the 2022 drilling programme, plus ignoring the fact the oil price has moved up 20% since December and could easily go further, above $100 perhaps even $150 if Ukraine kicks off.

So whilst the executive pay is a problem, and the poor communication around the guidance drop is a problem, the depletion rate is potentially a serious problem (no mention of it in their presentations, oddly? Should they not be planning injectors or other measures to prolong given the anticipated recoverable amounts?). However just going by the fundamentals, 2.4p offers considerable upside for the patient investor who can ignore the sentiment.

CNBC just reported that Apple are planning to offer merchant payment services from a standard iphone - whereas Block needs a Square payment gadget to process theirs. Block is trading down $6 on the news.

Genius move - Netflix was trading at $700/share back in November so PSH have scooped up 3.1m shares ($1.2bn) at around $360/share - nearly half price! It is utterly baffling that there's a pivot from growth to value and here is a FTSE100 hedge fund which has 96% of its portfolio in value companies, at 35% below nav. The fact that it's 7pm and not a single comment on this news just shows how overlooked this is at the moment!

https://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/2022/01/26170421/Pershing-Square-Capital-Management-L.P.-Releases-Letter-to-Investors-01-26-2022.pdf

RSE have 2 listed oil investments:
Pipestone - 30/9 $2.50 CAD - 27/1 $4.50 = 80% uplift of NAV component
Centennial - 30/9 $6.80 USD - 27/1 $8.07 = 18.5% uplift of NAV component

Meanwhile SLDP - Solid Power battery investment bought December 2021 at possibly $11ish dollars - 27/1 $6.75 so a 40% reduction of NAV component. That could be off putting but my thinking is this. This drop is in line with UK Ilika and other green stocks right now and perhaps they'll increase their holding to this or other beaten down green stocks as they have a large cash holding. They have invested in "green" for many years. Many green stocks are getting kicked due to the "bubble in growth stocks" yet have near term revenue - Ilika being a great example with its forecast Stearex revenues for 2022 - so the argument about discounting future growth doesn't really hold ..... in many cases "the future" is actually this year. Baby and the bathwater - it will revert in my opinion.

Believe other holdings are unlisted.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/questor-buy-now-enormous-discount-trust-spotted-others/

It utterly baffles me that a company short of cash would sit on an asset that's costing 6 million quid a year in depreciation (appreciate this isn't a cash cost) but also pay the salaries of around 60 people when the option to burn biomass existed all along....... and sold off the hydro business for £3m that generated £0.75m per annum to provide some cash.

The fact the broker blithely mentions this fact without any kind of prediction as to what burning biomass then means says it all really.

The only element that caught my eye is the "smart money" ii's who are still holding this stock. Morgan Stanley, Miton etc. Also that Gupta's not sold out (although interestingly has reduced from 43% to 29%)

I'm not buying back in but fingers crossed for those of you who remain here.

Interesting 8% bounce this morning

Unfortunately sanctions on Russian commodities would be negligible since China would not join in the sanctions. Same applies to gold, oil, gas nickel and other Russian commodities.

Russian food, financial Services, Investment, banking, tourism and industrial goods would be more significantly affected

SP Angel further raise their next 12 months from 0.5p to 0.6p for 2022. At today's 9.2p price that puts us on a forward PE of 16. Not sure why IC think it's moved from 0.4p however! I went back to this thread to double check it was previously NTM of 0.5p
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2002/01/02/latest-update-companies-smashing-broker-forecasts/

Dartron, the H1 EPS is 2.72c and the run rate appears to be higher in H2 for both divisions (based on NFV contract announcements, the nascent insect protein, and the recent Russian testing announcement "we are selling everything we can make"). So assuming a 20% growth in H2 compared to H1 we could hope for 6c in next month's results. So 4.5p on a 62p share means a PE of less than 14 for 2021. I think the market is failing to distinguish between "jam tomorrow" growth shares and "jam today and tomorrow" shares.

Do not fear! BATM will reduce those extra terrestrial insects into protein! And Zvi reports it makes the meat taste really nice!

Hi JSVan,

I agree with your sum of the parts but believe this is not the "aspirational" price level for valuing TEK right now:

1. The Salarius SaltMe! "chips" (crisps in other words) will drive some nominal profit however the real win there will be a licensing deal with one or more food producer. This will carry virtually no associated cost so will drop straight through to the bottom line. A valuation of 4x or 5x sales multiple would be a more appropriate valuation at that point.
2. Lucyd's last funding round of $20m was quite arbitrary in my opinion. Having bought the glasses, played around with the app, read the reviews of other people and seen the 1st class marketing I see this being IPOd at a higher price point, and once a sales trajectory and growth plan has been established (similar to BELL)
3. BELL is going great guns so it's reasonable to pay a premium to its NAV i.e. share price in that there's near term profitability and growth which will happen at least as quickly as predicted - but appears to be happening quicker.
4. The patents around the EV shock absorbers could provide a further upside.
5. TEK also engages in Consultancy with Universities and while this is small amounts of money ascribing zero pence valuation to these strategic relationships doesn't reflect its value.

I fully appreciate the argument about (potentially) rising interest rates being a headwind for growth companies - including for TEK. But there's a couple of reasons why this is fairly irrelevant to TEK. First that even if interest rates go to 1-2% this DCF of future profits isn't all that significant (if interest rates went to 10% then it would be catastrophic for growth companies). I think people aren't thinking the maths through. Second that all we seem to do is discuss TEK as a value play - it's value versus its NAV. It's a growth stock for goodness sake! Thirdly, I think that all of its businesses have moats and USPs that mean even against giant competitors it can win out (Philips for BELL, B&O and Amazon for Lucyd etc).

Lots to feel positive about.