Member Info for Agricore

The recent rebound (15%) of JMAT which SUPP bought in at just over £20 is now priced at £22. This equates to a £0.5m uplift to NAV in Tuesday's results..... about 0.25% of NAV so fairly irrelevant but it's important because it is one of Schroder's "new" investments.

Meanwhile there's been a drop of 20% of NAV since 31/12/21 (£113m) and a drop of NAV from 48p to 38p. Given the large number of biotech holdings (65% is "health" in the annual report) this is not unusual across that vertical.

Of particular note ONT suggests the remaining portfolio is performing extremely strongly. To put it in perspective the SP of ONT has dropped by around £64m since 31/12/21 so about 14% of NAV.

What's interesting is Biotech is clearly in the "despair" phase and suffering overhang from covid testing and vaccine euphoria - and anti-Cathie Wood rhetoric...... Meanwhile gene therapy and various breakthroughs are incredibly exciting and genuinely game changing. I'm very excited about what ONT will bring. So I remain positive here but recognise and acknowledge the poor sector results. However the ghost of Woodford isn't the reason this is doing poorly. The drops are less than I'm seeing elsewhere e.g. BIOG, ARIX

I ponder cutting each of my stocks and the ride on Centamin has been a bumpy one. I banked some great gains in 2020 but bought back on pull backs.

I have decided to stay my hand and kept my holding and offer some thoughts on why:

MACRO FACTORS:
1. Gold - Gold has proven itself against usurpers (Crypto) as a store of value
2. Costs - Gold mining has become expensive. I can see a fast approaching curtailment to supply as fuel costs, people costs and other inflationary factors mean the AISC rapidly rise. We've seen in CEY's recent results, but it's not unique to CEY
3. QT - Stagflation is bullish for gold. TINA - there is no alternative. This still stands even in today's world of increasing interest rates. Why? Because as rates rise bond prices fall. You are guaranteed a loss if you stay in cash or in bonds. Yet stagnation will hurt growth stocks and profits. A store of value such as gold in these circumstances? TINA.

CEY MICRO FACTORS:
1. A rubbish 2020 and 2021 and sentiment is sharply against CEY. Sentiment is illusion. Fundamentals are fact.
2. We will see solar energy come on stream H2 2022. This will help moderate AISC.
3. Defined resource - there is a decent life and resource increases both at Sukari and in time elsewhere.
4. Good yield. Currently 7.7% by my reckoning (IC think it's 7.5%).
5. Decent EPS growth 2022 and 2023 of 15-16%
6. 11 analysts with median price target of £1.25/share (6 outperforms, 4 buys, 1 hold)

So this has been my rationale to hang in and am comtemplating an increase here too, especially on any drops under 90p

I’d really like to see Mr Chin toppling up on some holdings. If he has a strong conviction then why are we sitting on so much cash? (Still)

If you consider the cash and listed stocks they total about £1.30. So if you bought at today’s insane price then you could make 17p a share Even If 100% of the unlisted is garbage (it’s not).

The depressed valuations of much of biotech is insane!!

Tangible NAV (risked) £1.69 - unrisked £1.89
Yield 11%
Strong cash flow
Significant portion of gas hedged at significant levels (circa +130% to previous hedge levels)
Great track record of accretive acquisitions
Great inhouse capability of basin plugging and dealing with emissions
US ADR listing anticipated June 22

I've been in here a while and made a major top up at 115p - averaging up always feels strange but I'm very pleased with the DEC management team's skill and see it building from here.

Razor, I think that's the most positive one can be on the results.

The $1533 AISC particularly is not great - albeit it's common across other gold miners I follow. I had hoped the solar array would shield us from energy increases, but alas no.

The huge drop in margin across gold mining is going to impact supply at some stage. But there's a plethora of new supply in process of the current investment cycle so this is a few years away.

The wider perspective is CEY is cheap on historic measures, debt free, building its JORC reserves, and is looking to improve operational efficiency, so is pursuing the right strategy. So looking beyond the quarter is holding for the long run is my perspective here.

Interestingly it's not strictly speaking just about getting a pipeline connection to Kolkata (which is happening August 2022 according to SP Angel), searched and not found anything to contradict that view. The bigger picture is India is building a huge interconnection of gas pipelines and are planning on increasing gas usage from 6.7% 2021 to 15% 20230. This includes for cars (CNG) replacing diesel/petrol as well as domestic and industry. (replacing Urea, Wood and LPG). The pipeline network is 18,700km in 2022 and will grow to 25,700km by 2027 including to other large cities/areas like Mumbai. CMG (Coal Methane Gas) doesn't suffer the same increase of water content that conventional gas does according to the GEEC web site and the resource is large enough that depletions isn't a huge challenge.

So there's grounds for optimism on this share and how it provides an interesting and stable play on India, green(er) energy, commodities, poor sentiment/overlooked opportunity, controlled risk...tick tick tick tick tick

https://gailebank.gail.co.in/goga/NewApplication/images/New_Map3.jpg
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/gail-puts-west-bengal-on-indias-gas-map-hurl-in-greener-cheaper-fuel-for-homes-automobiles/articleshow/80723294.cms

Off topic but this article is a fascinating glimpse into why we see a lack of condemnation from India towards Russia over Ukraine. The side of the news that we don't get to learn from our own news sources.... https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/how-to/why-india-has-been-soft-on-russia-here-are-the-strong-reasons/articleshow/90873069.cms

Hi Rivaldo, have bought in here today. Looks like a good play on the growing requirement for heat pumps. The Finncap report looked very positive too.

Worth calling out 92% excellent versus 63% excellent:

https://uk.trustpilot.com/review/sealions.com
https://uk.trustpilot.com/review/www.hollandandbarrett.com

Pay triple and get the 2nd one for a penny!

I think it's incredible that the NAV is still holding at 38-39p considering the doldrums that ONT finds itself in.

From memory they revalue non public traded portfolio 6 monthly so perhaps we'll see a painful revision downwards soon (or not?) and that is why this remains on a >40% discount to NAV?

I've topped up here (and on IPO) as I believe ONT has a bright future and patience will be rewarding. The cross read from IPO suggests the private portfolio could be stronger than the market perceives?

I'm not sure they are allowed to discuss their research notes Nkhatt. But they do give you the answer in their note: "We have revised EBITDA outlook from £21.5m to £21.2m to reflect the impact of commodity price inflation in the Sports Nutrition & Wellness segment" (just over a 1% reduction of a growing forecast future profit..... Hmmm yeah that's a good reason the shares should cost 20% less today - NOT!!)

I've managed to top up at £1.56 just now. What the market hasn't appreciated here is cost inflation driving costs up and also wages up supports Supreme putting prices up to absorb those costs.... in other words the net impact on Supreme could be negligible beyond the "shoe leather" effect on managing the changing prices as well as any delays in passing on prices (e.g. any prices negotiated with customers for X period of time) i.e. the 1%

Supreme's products are more at the "value" (and defensive) end of the market so if anything any slow down (dare I even say the word recession) could drive much higher sales.... I'm a regular Sealions customer and have been impressed by their marketing and efficient customer service. The same vitamins are for sale at 4 or 5 times the price at Rip Off and Bear Hat! And it just gets better and better. Supreme's main "wellness" competitor is owned by a Russian Billionaire. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/26/holland-barrett-sold-russian-billionaire-mikhail-fridman

Great buying opportunity today. A positive trading update with revenue and profit growth but a warning of future cost inflation (shouldn't be a surprise to the market?!!!!) has led to a sharp decline. Unwarranted in my opinion.

https://www.ipgroupplc.com/our-portfolio/portfolio/hysata

Taken from the annual report. The IPO holding is possibly A$3m-10m".

Australia and New Zealand
The Australian portfolio delivered fair value uplifts of A$14.6m against an opening portfolio of A$12.9m, which included significant funding rounds at Canopus and Alimetry. There are currently 15 investments in the portfolio, including the recently established Hysata, which is developing a highly effective electrolyser as a key enabling technology for the hydrogen transition. Further detail on Hysata, an opportunity that we believe has the potential to become one of our most compelling companies, is provided in the full annual report.

Well I decided to sell out of this today. My reasoning:

1. Several emails to the Investor Relations unanswered..... RUDE!
2. The twitter comprises weird "general interest business news" stuff - nothing to do with their portfolio whatsoever, apart from a 2 minute video
3. Their last quarterly update was 6 months ago. Errr ... Quarterly?!

I have concluded rightly or wrongly that this is the sort of share you lose your shirt on. They appear to have given up or have something to hide or are just incompetent. Don't know which and I'm not waiting any longer to find out.

Lost 8% but I'd rather have my remaining 92% doing something productive. I've lost a lot less than someone who bought in some time ago.

There's quite a number of these sorts of delays happening with auditors.... S4's share price crashed this week when PWC announced they couldn't finalise the audit. VLG have painted a very positive picture so once this is endorsed in the FY2021 accounts we'll see a rerate.

I picked up more VLG today sub 37p which I'm pleased with.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/metal_tiger/news/rns_widget/story/rn93p0w

EPS up - 2.59p 2021 (2.4p 2020)
PAT up - £4.2m
NAV 22.9p 2021

Lots to like!

Misterh, 1/ a buy back would be to rebuy in the market, 2/ a tender offer is to offer to buy back from shareholders at or below NAV (typically above market price), or 3/ a capital reduction can just be done on the balance sheet to eliminate accumulated lossses (so is a debit/credit on the balance sheet)..... TSL has no accumulated losses (£126m accumulated gains as at 30/6/21) so I think it will be method 1 or 2. And since £2.5m is a relatively small sum I think it will be more efficient to do market buy backs.

GLA

Hi Unhooked, one is dollar denominated and the other is GBP denominated.

Not long now till the tender offer. The $50m buy back will drive some further value.

https://georgiacapital.ge/sites/default/files/2022-03/Georgia%20Capital%20PLC%20Annual%20Report%202021_0.pdf

Great write ups today from Cenkos and Hybridian - but the results validate the deep value story and the forward growth potential. 47.5% YOY and 38.2% average rate of return over 5 years is impressive!