Member Info for Agricore

Sale of Pipestone (which enjoyed an 80% uplift between September 21 and Jan 22) from $2.50 CAD to $4.50, means that £40m will be available for buy backs (£36m+£4m). At the current market cap (£289m) will buy back around 15% of current shares.

Net assets £512m - £40m = £472m. Assume shares decrease from 55m to 47.5m shares at a constant £5.34/share.
Based on current NAV £9.31 that will further boost future NAV (assuming price remains around £5 a share) to around £9.93
(i.e. £472m/47.5m shares).

That places today's share price on a 46.2% discount to future NAV (£9.93-£5.34/£9.93)*100

Astonishing discount, considering this has been tipped by Questor and has had a nibble of interest but as RussellSprout said people bought on the rumour and sold on the news..... so no wonder RSE have decided to continue buy backs. I've averaged up again today. Averaging up is a new habit of mine - if the fundamentals are there then back the winners rather than cut the winners and support the losers. It's a lesson hard won, but if you take emotion out of the trade then it's often the right decision to make.

GLA

Sambar,
Deepmatter recapitalised. When a business runs out of cash it goes bust. A growing, start up business - like Deepmatter - needs enough cash to reach a point where it covers its cashflow. IP Group as a shareholder would have had first dibs on contributing and picking up a greater holding, especially as it's awash with cash. It declined to do so. That suggests to me that it didn't see an opportunity. Moreover Deepmatter was a £14m market cap (September 2021) and is now (Jan 2022) a £10m market cap after dilution. So IP's loss is around £2.5m and is included in its hard NAV of 165p in Jan 2022. The fact that the NAV grew despite life sciences being absolutely hammered is fascinating.

***By rights their trading update should show a 30-40p NAV loss not a 30p per share net gain. I think investors are failing to grasp this simple fact***

IP Group is a £1bn market cap. The "loss" of proportional ownership from 22% to 6% is simply a business decision, nothing more. So stop trying to sensationalise something that just isn't.

On the contrary TradeWizard a shorter can buy back the shares and go long on a sixpence. I expect our Ratty friend is now long on the trade having pocketed 50%+ on the short given there were strong over sold signals late Friday. When someone is a shorter that's not a vocation or a philosophy. At least not if you actually want to make money shorting a stock!!

Baptista Research puts Netflix on a current target price of $505 (40% upside from PSH buy price) and sees Net Profit growth of 60% over the next 3 years. Discussed how Netflix is moving into merchandising and gaming as well as growing into international markets. Notes strong competition, however Netflix's originals as a source of differentiation.

Happy - just reading tonight about variant "BA2" more virulent and more able to evade immunity.

But gosh yeah for it to be over is what we all desperately want. Let's hope so. If this 30 minutes rapid diagnosis of different conditions works then that should make covid tests pale in comparison.

GLA

It’s well written and seems very convincing but I can’t help feeling I smell a rat in what he or she is doing. Seems a very professional job at driving a short - and it works he or she made 11% today or 33% if 3x leveraged. I think I may have just ratted them out, and I’m not selling. I’m looking forward to the full year results

Happy - they said the same when Delta was subsiding.... and then along came Omicron. Pi is the next Greek letter, of course. Testing becomes more important if we are "just living with Covid" from now on.

Also if you go beyond the negative headline, Roche had impressive diagnostics income for 2021 ($14bn up 29%) - if BATM reports the same percentage increase we'll be very happy :)

Besides BATM's diagnostic has wider application than just covid.

More good news this morning. The nationality review element is a disappointment but I would think it was marginal? (not many ETFs tracking AIM stocks unless I'm missing something). Possibly means certain IIs can't participate? But again move to the main market if that's an issue.

Anyway back to the subject: tucked away in that RNS is the fact that BATM are buying back 10% of shares. That comes as a surprise but indicates that their free cash flow is substantial which in turn suggests very robust trading. Bear in mind that there's plenty of ways for scientists and tech heads on "Interesting Things" (which don't necessarily make money). So this is a strong indication of a disciplined approach to investment and capital management.

Another strong reason why topping up here will yield great results.

Dicks is the US equivalent of "Go Outdoors" and BestBuy is "Dixons".

People seem to be fixated on share price versus NAV or versus spinoff IPO price. This isn't a tangible asset business. Price to sales, sufficient runway to FCF, market demand, and forward earnings are much better measures here.

What's a comparative? Take Apple as an extreme example. Book value per share is $3.64 and it's on a price to book of 38 times. Before you shoot me down I'm not saying TEK is equivalent to Apple (yet) but I am saying anyone like JohnJoJim who wants to sell out as the share approach NAV per share is completely missing the point.

What we need to see for LUCY are accelerating sales just as we did with BELL and indication of market demand. News like coverage into some substantial channel partners is music to my ears, but is just the platform to those future sales. Once those come in the share price will ratchet. We'll see that evidence around end of Q2 2022.

My own fairly thorough investigations of LUCY of reading peoples purchase reviews, buying the product, using the Vyrb app, and running the numbers (including NAV just estimates of growth too) means this is why this is why TEK is my largest single holding. Patience will richly reward us (further) as the trajectory of one or more TEK subsidiary blossoms.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/MNRG/update-on-the-company-s-eqtec-italia-investment/15311800

Expects Q1 2022 commissioning of MDC Italia - che bello!
Reiterates the $2m revenue; $0.75 Gross Profit; 1MWE economics of the MDC.

Hi Dartron, NCYT's product is called Versalab and is aimed at Covid 19 testing without a proper laboratory.

It doesn't claim to diagnose anything other than covid as far as I can tell: This is a Versalab video which is the most inspirational sounding video of a car pulling a trailer I've ever watched (and I've watched Top Gear): https://youtu.be/Z7_vBfUX8Us

So Zvi's claim of uniqueness appears to hold.

Svend - ah yes I've seen you on Xpeditor - a 7th and more immediate technical signal is an inside bar reversal.

Of further note are the volumes. Grown from circa 3m/day to 5m/day. I see this being an exit of weak hands disappointed that gold hasn't moved, with willing hands picking up POLY in a rotation to safety and value - and meaty dividend.

As for the Russia/Ukraine argument I am convinced and agree with Dibs61 that Putin is a supreme strategist. He has outplayed the world politics game of chess and out manoeuvred the West for many years. He will exploit the situation and I believe Ukraine will be split in time (well it already is if you consider the Crimea). Russia gets it buffer, the west keeps a democratic Ukraine with its eastern Russian minority spun off. Read William Hague's recent article when he discussed judo with Putin as an example of how he thinks. My point is he isn't a madman nor will carry out the equivalent of a double check mate (i.e. a hot war). So the "political" risk of POLY (whose assets are 40% Russian by the way, the remainder Armenia and Kakakhstan) is quite minimal in my view.

Far more politically risky gold plays out there my friends! Just ask a Hochschild shareholder! Or a Hummingbird one! Even if sanctions follow, it is inconceivable that this will extend beyond the West. Russia can trade as much gold as it cares to to China with total impunity.

My favourite quotes/notes from the Proactive interview:
"In 2-3 years Eqtec has got exponential potential when you have a pipeline of pipelines."
"We are not targeting to achieve dozens of plants. We are planning for thousands of plants."
"Core markets for 2022 are UK, US, France, Italy"
"Enquiries actively coming in from Middle East, Latin America and Asia - for the future"
"This year we will have 2 live MDCs demonstrating to owner/operator firms impressive operational availability, efficiency and profitability"
"We can work with a diverse range of inputs, and profitably produce a diverse range of offtakes"
"In France we have a lot of government support at national, regional and local level"
"In France we've identified contaminated plastics. Letter of intent with Ceps(?). There's no alternative in the market that can deal with that. We can deal with it in a carbon negative way"
"Southport - exciting opportunity. Visited House of Commons last month. Phase 1 - Anaerobic. Phase 2 - Gasification. Phase 3 - Hydrogen/SNG. Can feed SNG to the gas network. Also demonstrates how clean and wot no nimbies (my paraphrasing). Minimal residue. Phase 1 and 2 small plant can be accelerated far quicker than 18-24 months - encourage other people it's not a long term construction."
"Further opportunities in the UK beyond heat and power, hydrogen and other things. Fischer tropsch and downstream activities are dependent on syngas. Are speaking with lots of oil and gas companies."
"Active in 7 markets. Planning to go into an eighth in 2022. Build a foothold. Have a strong partner or partners ecosystem. A MDC."
"Ideas go into projects which go into financial close. Into live operation. Once a market is established, partners can manage that process - then we can scale. Partners can grow and IPO in their own market."

For anyone sensible with a 5 year horizon, rather than chasing quarterly updates, this share's potential is about as exciting as it gets.

Market reaction is to stretch the discount to NAV back to over 43% (£9.31 cf current £5.26)

Bit of short term profit taking going on.

I bought in at $8.60 as I saw the technicals were showing very oversold and the discount to NAV was an eye popping 67%. The Z-Score was well under -2 (I think it was -2.6?)

TFG has been remarkable for several reasons:
1/ It has been impervious to the recent (Jan 2022) market fall and "inflation fear". As best as I can ascertain this is because they have some hedging and ambiguously named "market strategies"
2/ They have also popped up on my radar due to overlaps I've detected around biotech holdings compared to my other holdings. Overlap to SUPP, BIOG, ARIX, IPO.
3/ I've attempted to make sense of the NAV and admittedly haven't decisively worked this out. The only analyst following TFG seemed to have a similar challenge 6 months back. But a 67% discount to NAV is what seems at least as far as I can tell solid investments in some diverse and fairly low risk areas (along with some high risk areas like biotech). Their IR haven't been very forthcoming to questions.
4/ This share seems to go by with practically zero trade yet has a narrow spread. That makes it attractive in my book, in that you can set a stop loss to minimise risk of a fall and not be more that a few % down.
5/ This is a classic "margin of safety" share overlooked by the market, trundling away nicely and during 2021 has been driven downwards by sentiment and possibly apathy (NAV stayed the same and SP dropped). The falls have reversed it would seem albeit it's retraced about 3%
6/ The charges are quite high and the voting structure is basically there are 7 votes and you have none of them. These negatives don't bother me.
7/ Didn't I mention a dividend of 4.5%? !!
8/ Also if you look at it's long term record it's impressive (10%+ per annum returns). Lost its way in the past year or so maybe?

Next market update is early March. Even if the update is "business as usual" and zero gains, any kind of substantiation to its NAV will validate a re-rate. I'm pleased to be invested here.

So we are looking at a likely small loss for 2021 (but revenue of é8 - 10m) and forecast PBT profitable now in 2022. There's no news on the USA which suggests that's moving out to 2023 so we'll probably see a slightly slower ramp up than was forecast as they focus and prioritise .... but we've seen that already. It's a good thing that they're not trying to do too much - and get nothing finished.

The positive on the other hand is that this is jam today. Eqtec have proven themselves able to deliver a/ engineering services b/ a technology which genuinely works - profitably c/ Eqtec hold the IP technology sales that these market development centres will drive.

I've topped up at sub 0.98p yesterday and this is a top 3 holding for me now.

Quite hard to decipher the RNS but taking NAV of $682m / 549m shares = $12.41 ~ £9.31 NAV so an uplift of around 12% in 1 quarter.

Very positive aspects I'm taking from it is the "green" investments (i.e. the future) are paying off richly. Great result and oil has moved even higher since Dec 2021 - see my previous post on this - so extrapolating the NAV it is likely to be approaching £10/share.

A 30% share buyback is phenomenal!!!! I wish some other investment trusts would do this!!!!

Hi Svend - this is mainly a temporary working capital nothing more.

1/ They have invested in new software (freight forwarding)
2/ They are paying suppliers ahead of payment terms e.g. paying in advance rather than paying 30 days from date of invoice.
3/ Their customers are being given more generous payment terms e.g. offering 60 days from date of invoice instead of 30.
4/ During 2022 they will revert back to 30 days terms for customers and suppliers.

Why? Because introducing new systems can be disruptive and have glitches so they are "smoothing" its introduction by offering customers and suppliers leeway to bear with them......

XPD are a smart business to do that in my opinion. From experience :)

GLA and great write up by ST tonight. We'll see this bounce further tomorrow. Back towards 80p.

Sorry meant to say 1st Feb 2021. This year is 2022 :) :) :)

Profit before tax 2021 H1 was significantly ahead (of 2020 H2). Ignoring the one-off sale of NGSoft it was $6.8m (compared to $1.9 for H2 2020)

Assuming that's repeated for H2 FY2021 puts BVC on a PE of just 14. No reason to think it has shrunk given the news flow of the past 6 months. Could it have grown? Yes, conceivably. "We cannot produce enough covid tests - everything we can possibly make we are selling" was one Zvi quote. Edgility was had 1 large corporate win but is an SME product - so lots of small sales (subscriptions?). Will we start to see some form of recurring revenue from NFV?

Lastly Shore Capital have released a broker upgrade today. I think they should follow that with a broker note - which may lead to another ST update to the IC world. We may not see that until the full results which last year were on 1st Feb 2022..... so tomorrow may prove to reveal a tasty update and a sharp rerate..... I've topped up today in anticipation :)

BATM outta the park Zvi !!!!!!!!!!