Member Info for Agricore

Rpmcc - you couldn't be more wrong. You need to look at their accounts. Their customers hold bitcoin and they hold customer balances which are both an asset and liability (and would include crypto balances). Then Block provide a crypto trading service but this is a back-to-back trade and don't themselves hold a stock of crypto as an asset - they buy and sell and take a relatively small profit on that trade. (crypto trading volumes have fallen 50% yoy 2022Q1 to 2021Q1)

My short term concern is the growth of operating costs without a corresponding growth in revenue - yet. The growth in the business looks positive however.

Today's £2.5m special dividend for TSL meanwhile is a 10% yield on current market cap - if TSL drops to 10p then that is more like a 20% yield. Plus you own Block an exciting fast growing business at a substantial discount to its current US market price. So 22p for TSL is a bargain. 10p will be incredibly cheap but I doubt we will get there. Doubt this will remain as low as 22p either.

Just finished watching the investormeetcompany presentation. The presentation feels "light" on the numbers and lots of talk about how they are still turning the legacy around 18 months later - that feels disappointing because they told us they'd "turned it around" last year. The elephant in the room is the general sell off of biotech. But I'd like to have understood where the losses lay and how that changes. The loss were dressed up as "investment" but that makes no sense unless you're writing off 100% of the investment - otherwise it doesn't go to the P&L and by definition can't be a loss!!!! Feels like a basic lack of a grasp of accountancy. However the technology news is positive so am remaining here awaiting further news on the anticipated inflection points.

Form an orderly queue Bonker! I'll pay $21 for those coins if they actually exist!

I've just topped up at 1.27p. The Altona partnership adds a dynamo from my point of view, where this relationship becomes cash generative fairly quickly and has pontential to unlock deals. All the stars have aligned so to speak. And speaking of Align they make a number of valid points on comparative valuations (vs. Mast vs. Horizonte) and even when they discount the nickel resource by 90% (90%!!) they arrive at an 8 bagger. If you consider that a JORC compliant nickel resource is a marketable asset then the main risk is only really the mining licence. That then turns to whether one of the poorest nations on earth (Papua New Guinea) would want to forego the valuable tax? Meanwhile it's good having that dry powder when there's such a sharp down day in the markets too.

GLA

>> woeful inept management who it seems are totally unable to stop wells declining
>> The decline in the production is ridiculous

These managers are no better than the management at King Canute Tidal Management. If only we had different managers our wells would suddenly transform to magic porridge pots.

> Capital expenditure does not affect net profit

Piface, yes it does - any capital expenditure normally means more depletion, depreciation and amortisation (DD&A).

https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/services/audit-assurance/assets/pwc-financial-reporting-in-the-oil-and-gas-industry-2017.pdf

Mr Flibbles, you'll be pleased to note then that the discount has narrowed to "only" 40.2% today = £3.68 NAV vs £2.20 buy price.

The less positive news is that NAV has dropped by 19% from 31/1/22 to 30/4/22. Though, to be fair, the FTSE all share is down more than this.

I'm neutral on the prospects here; while these are turnaround plays they are also reliant on growth. It's debateable whether a reduction in discretionary expenditure could affect some holdings..... or am I regurgitating the general negativity and we are just talking ourselves into a recession!

The positive is the past 5-year 10-year track record which is extremely good.

EV, it could be said too good to be true, but I've worked through your numbers and they seem sensible to me. The price of iron ore and the capex seem to be the 2 main sensitivities - although even if I put a very pessimistic slant on either it still comes back with a valuation far higher than the current SP..... and then I have to factor in the value of the other assets.

The key here is whether people are patient - this isn't an adrenalin junkie stock - and the current depressed price is the junkies binning it off as too slow. (In my opinion)

If you are prepared to wait 2-3 years you can have a fantastic return. (And probably sooner once the market realises the value here). There's a number of these sorts of deep value plays in the market - Power Metals for example - where it will come good in time.

PBT up over 50% from £15m to over £23m.

Seems a bargain at current its price. Hidden value in the VW and Mercedes case. The housing claims unit is already doing well too.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/e-cigarette-market-size-in-the-uk-to-grow-by-usd-1-20-billion--technavio-301513223.html

UK Market - 13% CAGR for vaping apparently.

Hello TD

A "special" dividend is a one-off dividend. DividendMax lists them as special (and Equity research state an incorrect 2.1p dividend), hence me repeating that. However on closer inspection both are incorrect on the value and type (i.e. it's an Interim and 2.2p). However, in FY2021 they did NOT pay a final dividend. They paid an interim one in January 22 as we know. SUP's policy is as below so yes it appears we can expect a further dividend in July 22. And presumably one of around 4.4p (tasty!) based on their 1/3 and 2/3 policy below.

>>As highlighted at the time of our IPO, we intend to pay dividends to shareholders in an aggregate annual amount equivalent to approximately 50% of net profits, retaining the balance of earnings from operations to finance our future expansion. Our dividend payments are expected to be split into a one third interim dividend and a two thirds final
dividend and we expect to declare our first interim dividend following the publication of our interim results for the six-month period to 30 September 2021.

On another note is anyone else tempted to further top up at today's 138p? FY2023 yield is now 5.3% rising to 5.9% which I think is incredibly good.

Last special dividend of 2.7p was Dec 21 paid in Jan 22 and the next special dividend is forecast to be 2.1p in Dec 22. Paid in Jan 23.

The forecast yield then for 2023 and 2024 grows to 5.2% and 5.7% at current prices!

Similar to a comment from Cathie Wood of Ark there's a huge disparity between drops in value in the public portfolio and the private portfolio. Only Quench is significantly rerated downwards in the private portfolio.

198p revised NAV is better than I'd feared; and reflects the wider retracement of biotech. There's a lot of detail to absorb.

Having top sliced at $7 a couple of months ago, this is back to a $5.50 ask. My current estimate is around $8.66 adjusting for Backblaze @ $10.34 today. Bolt, Backblaze and reported cash alone add up to more than the market cap of $160m! You then get a free ride on everything else worth around $110-120m.

The discount has widened again to 36.5% - so the top slice is going back in :)

Meanwhile if TMT can grow it's NAV at 36% (as it has done the past 5 years) then this get really exciting. NAV uplifts to $11.78 which is a 53.3% discount to NAV. If the share price reverts to its historic 30% premium to NAV then that implies a stock price of $15.31. So a triple bagger in 7 months.

GLA

Hi Troy

Regarding changing Indian 10 year yields GEEC's debts are not index linked so there's no effect. In fact below is my understanding of their debt situation:

"The debt level as at 31/12/21 is around $60m and the company is paying down around $8m p.a. plus interest of $5m.
The Company maintains a prudent approach to capital discipline and is continuing to pay down its debt position and not taking up the optional debt moratorium allowed by the Reserve Bank of India due to COVID-19. Gross debt fell by US$4.3m during the first six months of FY22 to US$56.3m, and estimates are that net debt fell to US$48.3m (FY21: US$52.4m) resulting in a material drop in GEEC’s net debt/equity ratio to 0.53 (FY21: 0.58). The Company continues to focus on optimising its debt coupon rate and had been able to reduce it from 10.32% in FY21 to 9.48% for FY22. This will result in an annual saving in FY22 of c.US$0.51m.

Regarding a 20-30 year transition to gas that's not what I'm seeing. I believe there's at least a CAGR of 9% for natural gas. ESG concerns do exist in India, and of course the $325/tonne coal price is encouraging a faster energy switch.

Refer to:
https://www.ibef.org/industry/indian-oil-and-gas-industry-analysis-presentation

I managed to top up today at 23p which I'm very pleased with.

I would offer an innocent explanation about the KCB. I am not a geologist or anything like that but I asked (on the InvestorMeetsCompany presentation recently) about the core sample assays from the B.0001 drilling and Ben answered we are putting a package of results together which includes the assay results. Sharing them in isolation would "not be helpful" I think were BT's words.

I came away with the impression that the package of results is a presentation pack for the sale of mineral rights. (Rightly or wrongly) - KAV have previously said they are explorers not miners so this makes sense to me as the right explanation so the innocent explanation is the significant amounts of field work and analysis and preparation of documents which need to be done outside of drilling. Especially if a sale of rights were on the table.

I.e. you don't just judge progress by just the rapidity that you continue drilling. It's not as simple as point and drill.

Hi Unhooked, well the buybacks succeeded and the SP has now leapt 25% to $10.40. However it's still on a 64% discount.

I actually tendered quite a chunk and so am happy. (Tendering had the small added bonus of no spread and no selling fees). But I'm pondering a top up here. I am also looking to closely read the next monthly newsletter to gain a sense of direction.

Has anyone else noticed the RNS's from Arix? Today Acacia go over 21% (at 30% they must start a takeover bid). Who are Acacia? About Us: Acacia Research seeks to acquire undervalued businesses with a primary focus on mature technology, life sciences, industrial and certain financial ...

I think this more than the promise of some dividends or tender offer will stoke the share price. A good time to top up here ahead of that?

GLA

The brutality continues.

Now on a 27.4% discount to NAV where the historic average shows as 5% premium NAV.
Yet in 2021 CHRY achieved NAV growth of 57%. Thinking about the portfolio many will be doing better in 2022 than 2021 - Secret Escapes, Starling, Revolution Beauty immediately come to mind. The buy now pay later (BNPL) negativity for Klarna probably weighs but don't forget this is a fast growing area of credit and that again credit is MORE prevalent - not less - in 2022 than 2021. Also that US penetration of BNPL is very low (2%) compared to say the UK at 5%. So lots of growth potential. The fact BNPL will be regulated in the UK is actually a positive for incumbents (creates a moat and new entrants was the biggest threat). THG is another "negative" component but their recent (21st April) trading update was very positive and shares there have rebounded from around 87p to around 115p. I have loaded up quite heavily here as I think there's is extreme negative sentiment and the fundamentals will win through here.

Worth reading the 2021 Annual Report to see for yourself what sits beneath the "bonnet": https://api.fundpress.io/documents/retrieve/4ff7aa78-fe0a-40d0-9396-2f7653735e89/filename/Chrysalis-Investments-Limited-Annual-Report-2021.pdf

GLA