Member Info for Agricore

.....and if the shares are traded they could either be bought or sold?

Think there'll be a few buys on today's great & expected result.

Good SHOUT guys - you both gave me some food for thought. Thank you.

Couple of things I'd point out (for those of you who appear to have given up reading after page 1 of today's announcement):

1. The 2021 exploration results are exciting. 400-500g/tonne of silver and average 4-6g/tonne gold is a good grade.
2. There's a strong variation between mines too. Pallancata's AISC is over 50% above Immaculada. Immaculada's AISC is broadly comparable to Barrick's AISC. If for some mad reason silver dropped from here then they'd mothball it (like they did with their other mine 3-4 years back the name I don't recall). If silver rises as is widely expected then this will have an outside profit upside for HOC as has been pointed out.
3. I don't think people realise the potential for Aclara. HOC still owns a chunk of that and those of us who've not binned it off I think we will see some exciting progress (I've gone the other way and topped up on Aclara)
4. The PE for 2021 is 10. I think that's historically cheap for HOC. Barrick is a PE of 20 for example :)
5. The point someone made about spare cash being used by HOC for capital investment in 2022. Err, so what? Do you even understand how business works?
6. The 2022 rise in AISC are common to all mines not just HOC. Barrick don't actually clearly give guidance for 2022. They just make a vague gesture that AISC will drop 2022-2025 (presumably through the use of new technology and approaches). Which if true will be common to all mines for just Barrick!
7. The special mining tax mentioned in the 2021 report seems to put to bed the political part for now; HOC is diversifying meanwhile and my point of "don't kill the golden goose" seems to have prevailed.

There's plenty of pessimism right now but go back in historic to when HOC last went to 90p..... look at it's rebound back then. The circumstances then vs now weren't all that different to be fair. In fact there's reasons to see think a sharper rebound could occur. TINA - there is no alternative - is now accentuated through inflation and the credibility of some other asset classes, crypto particularly, has reduced. Once one of the crypto providers figures out that solving maths problems while generating CO2 is not smart and creating a crypto instead indexed to GOLD or SILVER identified and recorded in a blockchain ledger is smart, very smart, and then I believe we will see a resurgence of precious metals. It is so logical, and I would suggest being positioned in something like HOC is a smart way to play this.

GLA

I disagree with QD22 for a number of reasons:

1. Withdrawal of government support for covid testing - while there’s 50% who couldn’t give a monkeys and don’t wear masks etc there’s 50% who do. They will be actively looking for ways to minimise risk especially as wearing masks will become increasingly uncommon - for example goi g to a work meeting.
2. We are all assuming covid is “being lived with” all of a sudden. Didn’t we think that 6 months ago with delta? Then came omicron. So there’s no guarantee covid can’t whipsaw back again.
3. The fact this is further backed up elsewhere such as Salisbury hospital gives further credence
4. The fact that it is PEER REVIEWED is also key. This matters more than the size of the sample.
5. Id also point out vlg are competent marketers so I dare say they are executing product plans they had on stand by for today.

Meanwhile Chinese sales are other reasons for optimism and the forthcoming results are reasons for optimism next month….

Gla

Barrons reports today Gazprom's annual dividend now stands at 23% and Lukoil is at 20%.

The shorting is predicated on the idea that this will go temporarily cash negative during 2022 before turning cash positive in 2023 (if the analyst Singer are to be believed), and furthermore that they will be unable to borrow or enter a royalty finance agreement.

There's no evidence that this will be the case - only seeds of doubt. The fact is that the intellectual property is valuable so I think it INCONCEIVABLE that a loan secured against the IP could not be obtained. The risk to a lender is minimal, because if Shield went bust they could claw back their loan from the sale of the IP.

I don't believe there will be further dilution - or if there is then it is likely to be a rights issue due to the 40% II involvement here.

Therefore shorting this is foolishness; the share price is just now even more attractive.

I agree with you minecheck - just how imminent can the attack get?!

I was gobsmacked that the UK govt are giving the Ukraine £100m. Meanwhile taxpayers are facing unprecedented taxes and inflation. I'm a natural Conservative but I will certainly not be voting for Boris, and I don't think I'm unusual. Why exactly do we want to "save" the Ukrainian people? Putin makes a very point when he says if Ukraine joins NATO then it could drag us into a war over the Crimea and we would have no choice but to fight Russia. We should choose our friends carefully and this idea of "anyone can join" is insane.

Meanwhile back to POLY - I cannot believe how cheap this share is. The investments, particularly into silver, will prove to be a smart move. Silver at $24 is incredibly cheap. It's almost to the point where we may see some substitution from copper to silver if copper goes much above $4.75.

I wrote a long reply this morning and LSE crashed. Grr.

1. Today we have Shore Capital's update/forecast. It is interesting to note that all the people (Dartron and myself) underestimated the forecast revenue for 2021. We shall have to wait 11 days but this is very positive in itself.

2. There's a clear progression of profit if you strip out the extraordinary items (NGSoft and Ventilators) year on year.

3. Clearly the rat deramper taught us a very important lesson. Why would someone write such a well written piece and helpfully share it several times a day. The share price is still affected by the rat. Fundamentally the business is stronger than when it was trading in the £1.00 - £1.10 range. So there is reason for this to now trade above that level. I am surprised that that did not happen today. I expect that this will happen on the next risk on day. Generally the markets are down today.

4. What's also of note that if you look at Shore's predictions 6 or 12 months ago they were conservative to today's announcement. So that gives a lot of credence to its forecast.... and also means any positive news (and if the newsflow in 2022 is like that of 2021 then there will be positive news) will cause this to re-rate.

5. I dare say ST will have an article on the "eyewatering" opportunity here before too long.

6. I'd also mention that the revenue mix will increasingly be recurring/licences with just a nominal cost of sale, so I think we will see a leveraged profit spike on the back of these sort of deals. There's scope for licensing on the medical side too.

For all those reasons I think a rerate is inevitable. I've sold out of another holding today to further top up today.

If I had to guess I’d say Bill’s target is Square (SQ):

1. Square moved into value territory dropping $166 to $106 a share over past 6 months
2. Merge with BNPL business Afterpay
3. Strong brand
4. Covers Retail/POS payments, e-commerce gateway payments and and crypto digital wallets

Astonboy wrote " if you cannot service the debt".......

If you refer to the 2020 Annual Accounts - section Finance - isn't it the case that there is a PIK agreement with the largest creditor BlackRock? While the other creditors are 80-90% backed by the Spanish govt. So your concern of running out of cash is certainly reduced with the PIK in place as well as government guaranteed loans?

I do appreciate that the resulting dilution from the PIK isn't great, and today's drop is very painful, and the longer term question of how WRES digs itself out of the debt hole....... but the risk of running out of cash is perhaps less albeit the RNS does explicitly say working capital is required. We have seen that ICD are supportive so perhaps we will see an offtake agreement.

I pondered selling today but concluded there's reasons to remain here pending further news.

GLA

https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/trust-watch-big-new-bargains-as-markets-get-in-a-muddle/a2378673?ref=investment-trust-insider-comment-analysis-list#i=2

Tetragon’s titanic discount
For a change, we start with the week’s big risers. Tetragon Financial (TFG), although not the biggest gainer in our table, is the standout performer with the dormant shares in the alternative investments group jumping to life with a 9.5% leap by Thursday’s close.

That left it in fifth place in our list of investment company fliers, behind the volatile cent or penny stock that is DP Aircraft (DPA), and a broad bevy of private equity funds. Most notable of these is Seraphim Space (SSIT), which rallied 19% after its thumping in the January selloff to leave its shares standing on a 9% premium over NAV, but still down nearly 10% so far this year.

For seasoned watchers of Tetragon, a $2.9bn (£2.1bn) hedge fund with stakes in a range of fund managers, a share price rally in early February is almost a yearly event. That’s because at the end of January it publishes its NAV for 31 December, which includes an annual revaluation of the private equity stakes in its TFG Asset Management business. These jumped 35% to $1.25bn, pushing asset value up 11.6% in December and leaving the portfolio with a total underlying gain of 14.1% for 2021.

Forthcoming annual results will reveal which companies drove this performance, although from earlier statements it looks to be infrastructure fund manager Equitix. In the meantime, investors can only wonder when Tetragon’s chronically wide discount, now stretching to 68% with a market value of just £664m, will ever narrow?

Stifel analyst Iain Scouller lives in hope and believes following Monday’s statement the shares are worth tucking away in the hope something will be done – such as a flotation of the asset management business – to provide a catalyst for a gigantic rerating of the share price.

‘A wide discount has persisted for a long time and is not in itself a reason to buy the shares. However, we assume that at some point common sense will prevail and the board and management will come up with a proposition such as a restructuring to both recognise and realise value for shareholders,’ Scouller said.

Until then, don’t expect fireworks. Despite a 57% investment gain in the past five years, the shares have fallen 10%, illustrating how far the company has fallen out of favour.

NAV @ 8th Feb £38.82 per share. So currently at today's price of £27.30 on a 29.6% discount to NAV for a slice of Dominos USA, a watch of Netflix, a listen of Universal Music and a bit of DIY from Lowes. Plus what Bill Ackman calls an asymmetric bet on interest rates. It's asymmetric because if rates go up further and faster then the swaption is disproportionately more valuable. The last time US inflation was 7.5%, interest rates were 15% so we'll see on that one.

No energy, no green tech, only 1 miner, no investment trusts. I was quite surprised by his choices (except for TEK). I thought SLP was a bargain share from a prior year - 2016?

Recorded 24/1/22:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQWUTbQ_Ex0

Key points:
> Peak/trough cycle of extremes
> VRFBs - will create an ongoing peak
> Li - current prices make VRFBs much more competitive. You'd be mad to make large lithium batteries - for cost and for the danger of thermal runaway
> BMN is discussed at 15:55 mins - have wherewithal to mine and make batteries - that's the way to go where they supply themselves. No one else seems to be doing that. (Guy is Australian I think)
> Gradual price rise - where it is borderline specialty metal and part base metal. DSO (Direct Shipping Ore) metal being sent to China and Chinese are converting to Vanadium Pentoxide for use in huge VRFBs (he also starts to call them VRBs - batteries without the flow?? haha)

Hello, I'm thinking of investing here. I have this on my shortlist but am trying to remember why. Can someone point me in the direction of an analyst report for SEED? I found some old ones referring to its prior name FFWD (I think). Any help would be appreciated.

Vox perhaps were doing a 2 for the price of 1 on the paid interviews? UOG appear on the technicals too:
https://www.PPPoxmarkets.co.uk/articles/traders-cafe-with-zak-mir-bulletin-board-heroes-february-9-23f3239

Bullish divergence may take this to at least 3.5p says the chartist.

Knowing why the production dropped, what's being done to resolve it and whether the drop is just a blip could do that too.

I'm expecting for the 2021 results and then my estimate for 2022:

2021 Revenue $76.5m (less OH $46m same as 2020) - PAT $30m – 6.8c EPS ~ 5p
2022 Revenue $88m (less OH +10% in 2022 $51m) - PAT $37m – 8.4c EPS ~ 6.3p

At today's share price:
2021 - PE 10
2022 – PE 5.9

I'd expect this to rerate to 80p-90p following full year results (back to its prior level), or higher if the results exceed the above numbers. Then further into 2022, the buy backs and continuing good news on contracts/new products should add a further 20p+ to the share so takes this to £1.10+.... that puts it on a PE of about 11 ( which is still cheap). Once there's some track record of recurring revenue (for either or both divisions) then the valuation basis will drive the fair value PE upwards. So I can see how ST considered this to be worth £1.50 but let's take one step (slap?) at a time.

Hi Trade Wizard, I read the Rat's blog very thoroughly (and to be fair it's written thoroughly). My initial reaction was to SELL SELL SELL. But I breathed. Then I then cross checked some facts to validate what was being said. I found some facts stacked up (for example Zvi is indeed a non exec of Shore Capital) whereas for others I found no evidence. The absence of evidence could be seen as inconclusive. So I pondered.

What struck me though was why was someone broadcasting the story on here every few hours. What motivated them to keep that story "top of the list" I wondered? I then checked for shorts and there was a declared short. I went back over my rationale for investing in BATM and the past RNSs and weighed up whether the "Rat's convincing story" would add up against indisputable facts. Fact 1: would a customer like Vodafone or the large Cement customer contract with a mickey mouse outfit? I concluded no, businesses do not contract multi million pound systems - especially around security - without extensive due diligence. Moreover would the Israeli government (given their many anti-semite enemies) contract with a business which wasn't world class? I concluded - no, absolutely not. When you re-read the "Rat's convincing story" given those 2 indisputable facts then the "Rat's facts and conjecture" quickly sound like exaggerations or perhaps some half truths?

I'll leave you with a Yiddish proverb: A half truth is a whole lie.

Smart meters will accentuate these kind of price differences. For those able to invest in energy storage domestically this could represent an arbitrage opportunity (and further drive the demand for Lithium and other battery metals). Potentially those with an EV have that same opportunity. Buy the electricity for £3.20 and sell it back at £16.00 the next morning during peak demand:
e.g.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/08/smart-meter-overhaul-open-gates-surge-pricing/

> Buoyant oil price. Share price languishing, below IPO price despite divestment of assets and being a cash positive business, and a rising oil price (also higher for longer)
> Market cap for a business of > 1000 barrels/day typically at £50m+ and UOG is £15m
> Fully funded - haven't been to the market for 2 years
> Brian asks - Are we too good to be true? Are we being punished?
> Is a Producer - Guidance 1500-1650 barrels/day - that excludes the 4-5 additional wells being drilled so that guidance is based on operational updates. Isn't questioned at all by Zak Mir on why the drop in production.
> Jamaica is blue sky. $4m invested to date. Waiting for a partner. Potentially 2bn barrels.
> No dividend planned as they want to invest in the business to maximise value