Member Info for Agricore

NAV uplift yesterday due to bolt fundraise = $1.03 per share.

https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=1323-15082880-042SKQ0G2PNOGF64MT0VMEAJ8B
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/02/uber-rival-bolt-valued-at-4point75-billion-in-new-funding-round.html

My best estimation is that as at 31/7/21 the NAV has grown to around 92p. So this is now on a 69/92 = 25% discount to NAV.

Duke, Hargreaves, Volex, Fire Angel are all doing really well in their own right so this looks attractive, which is why I've topped up today. I won't be surprised to see a ST article soon pointing out the unwarranted discount and value here.

Pity Bruce Willis hadn't been there hanging from a rope to kick the drill back into action.

The dividend is 15c which is 11p. The share price is £1.06 so the dividend yield is more than 6.5%
10.2% more like.

On the 14th July I pondered: - could clearpay be an acquisition target? The legislative change means it’s not just a case of setting up shop

BOOM! Am looking forward to the market open

Hi Echo, The 5G roll out is a key enabler for a number of technologies (autonomous vehicles, IOT, space tech) so anticipate this share becoming a "hot" area - and a "picks and shovels" play.

I think each of the portfolio has good potential - and once a funding round or an IPO is announced then the current 20p is a total bargain. So I'm very happy to be in here at this price. Just this morning my investment in Thinksmart is going to shoot up on the news the Dorsey is buying Clearpay..... well I'm assuming it shall.... the market opens in an hour!

https://www.ravepubs.com/wireless-sees-the-light/

Meanwhile at ALM 2nd portfolio in 5G - the market opportunity is significant and imminent:

“Traditionally, optical wireless communications is from a transmitter to a receiver, point-to-point, and that was it. That obviously limits its applicability. Whereas we have developed the ability to do point-to-multipoint communications (something we term one-to-many communications). This acts very much like RF so we can support a multitude of parties with much higher bandwidth. That means that applications like mobility, being able to support end users as they travel and track them is part of our capability we’re developing.”

“In terms of applicability to infrastructure, we’re not that far away at all. We were already having discussions and demonstrations with commercial carriers, mobile carriers, mobile and fixed carriers. And I can see that they have already started adopting product to put in place early next year (2022).”

https://www.fiercewireless.com/private-wireless/lte-dominates-private-networks-but-5g-coming-special-report

There are a lot of advantages that come with 5G. 5G is cloud native, and it’s designed with IT principles in mind; therefore, it’s simple for enterprise IT staff to deploy, operate and support.

As for what impact the pandemic is having on private networks, “it’s a double-edged sword,” Dhar said. On one hand, some 3GPP standards work slowed down because it takes longer to resolve conflicts in a virtual world versus in-person meetings.

On the other hand, the pandemic increased the desire on the part of some enterprises to automate rather than have people be physically close to one another. If the pandemic has brought anything to light, “it’s basically the urgency for every industry and every enterprise to accelerate their digitization process,” Dhar said.

5G is not a great deal more expensive than 4G and brings with it a strong Industrial IoT feature set, including enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB), Ultra Reliable Low Latency Communication (URLLC) and massive Machine Type Communications (MTC), according to Dhar.

Federated Wireless expects 5G will be commercially deployed on CBRS in the fourth quarter of this year. The company, which runs a Spectrum Access System (SAS), is involved in 5G trials with customers, and it’s also deploying 5G for the Department of Defense (DoD).

No thrill from Liz Hill :(

It dilutes us - it also dilutes Gupta.

Having powerful friends has helped Ceres and ITM so I'm relaxed about the dilution - it provides useful runway too.

- Profits sharply up
- Bad Debt down - CET1 - 12.1% over its 11-12% target.
- ROTE 12.3%
- Calculate run rate Price Earnings of 7 makes this incredibly cheap IMO
- Dividend policy of 40-50% of profits should equate to around 6%+ yield
- Particular surprise is the strong results coming out of South America - didn't expect that

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2pLYTKlhSE

Strewth!

That'll cover SS's basic salary for another year :)

.....Unless the remuneration committee decide he deserves a raise for inperformance.

Well he can't have one for outperformance can he?

Silver

Uskmouth

The Welsh Government 'called in' the planning application at Uskmouth in March 2021. The planning application related to fuel storage, material handling and other ancillary infrastructure to be constructed external to the existing power station building. As a result, the application will now be determined by the Welsh Minister and not the local Council.

Tidal

Atlantis continues to work with UK Government to secure the necessary support mechanisms to allow the further rollout of tidal stream technology, especially the next phase of the MeyGen project.

UK government changes to the UK CfD renewable energy support scheme announced in December of last year creates an opportunity for tidal energy to compete against floating offshore wind. The next auction (Allocation Round 4), which is due in the second half of 2021, will see a separate auction “pot” for tidal energy and floating offshore wind. Tidal previously competed with better developed normal offshore wind, where costs have dropped substantially, making it hard for newer tidal technology to realistically compete.

The new CfD arrangements could give Atlantis a chance to add capacity at its existing MeyGen tidal project which has already exported 35GWh to the grid.

MeyGen has a seabed lease allowing for up to 398MW of tidal capacity with currently 73.5MW fully consented and with grid capacity.

Atlantis’ second generation turbine, with an increased rotor diameter and lower weight foundations has already lowered costs. A proposed subsea hub could also reduce connection costs and on-vessel servicing will also to reduce operating costs further.

Once operational, this project will be the largest tidal array ever built and continues to be both a pioneer and a flagship for both the industry and the technology globally. The UK Government has indicated that it will announce the details of the support mechanisms this summer, with the auction round taking place towards the end of the year.

Operationally, MeyGen continues to provide vital learning to help the design and development for future projects. Currently, three of the MeyGen turbines have been moved to Atlantis’ workshop in Nigg to allow the team to complete onshore service works. One of the turbines is expected to be returned to service very shortly with the other two scheduled to be returned to service later in the year, once their service works are completed.

Project development for the group’s Raz Blanchard demonstration array, located between Alderney and France, is also making good progress.

Hydro
Atlantis is currently managing the construction of three interlinked hydro projects, with a combined total installed capacity of 5.8MW. The first project was commissioned in March 2021, with the second and third projects due to be commissioned this year

2020 results:
£12m revenue
- £6m Employee Costs
- £6m Depreciation of Uskmouth
- £3m of other depreciation
- £8m subcontractors
- £4m finance costs
-£4m Other Costs
= £19m loss for 2020.

So what changes in 2021? (I'm assuming the things SAE have told us are in place)

1. 330MW by 2021 @ £300/MW x 365 = £27m Revenue
I'm basing 330MW on this link: https://simecatlantis.com/investors/our-business-in-numbers/
I'm basing £300 per mwh on there being a CFD this year from HM Govt for Tidal Power.
And also found Nova Scotia tidal generation is around that - see this link:
https://www.marineenergywales.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ORE-Catapult-Tidal-Stream-and-Wave-Energy-Cost-Reduction-and-Ind-Benefit-FINAL-v03.02.pdf

2. Consulting Revenue grows +10% = £7.1m
3. OPM Revenue grows + 10% = £2.8m. Total Revenue £37m
4. Uskmouth gets approved and would add 220MW but let's say that's not ready until 2022.
5. 100MW New capacity is added in 2021 ready for 2022
6. Subcontractors (presumably brought in because of Covid travel restrictions although I don't know this) reduce 75%
7. Other Costs +15% and Employees + 10%

2021 estimated £37m revenue
- £7m Employee Costs
- £6m Depreciation of Uskmouth
- £3m of other depreciation
- £2m subcontractors
- £4m finance costs
-£4.6m Other Costs gets us to a

£10m Operating Profit for 2021.

Obviously the picture gets brighter still in 2022:
- Highly profitable CFD generation contracts (which could be sold on rather than being income bearing) (this isn't yet confirmed but seems likely in my opinion)
- Subcoal 50% JV - mix of waste plastic and biofuel
- Potentially development of Carbon Capture IP (10 football pitches of Algae under the river Usk)
- Grants from the UK, Scottish governments
- JV with a large player (as we've seen with Ceres, ITM etc)
- Contract Wins to convert the 10,000 coal power stations worldwide rapidly closing using Uskmouth as the poster child.
- Contract wins for tidal turbine builds
- Tidal turbine asset sales to utilities to fund growth.
- Potential for a takeover bid from an energy player, private equity

I don't believe the market appreciates the highly profitable and transformative potential and therefore why I own this share.

Great coverage of Supreme’s exciting story - should be positive

Risk drops - The receivers for SUEH have passed back control over the 41% of shares for their owners the GFG alliance. The refinance of GFG appears to be in place

Exciting Results! The single biggest take away from this is a/ Vaping Growth b/ great vaping margin. The strategy to land and expand appears to be working well.

Clearly are achieving synergies and the new acquisitions will only increase this. Really delighted with what I'm seeing.

Really positive update in my opinion.

I have been reading about how electrolysis occurs far more efficiently at higher temperatures.

(https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/high-temperature-electrolysis#:~:text=High%2Dtemperature%20electrolysis%20at%20800,step%20hydrogen%20and%20oxygen%20gases.)

EQT's technology could work well for Green Hydrogen.