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This surely suggests the TP engineering (based in slough) will be going - why else open another site an hour down the road?

https://www.gazetteseries.co.uk/news/19423306.2-4million-innovation-hub-opens-bristol-bath-science-park/

If they can bring the disparate businesses, cultures, languages together and under a single business system then the synergy on this will drive growth and profits. Certainly seems to be heading the right way.

Gla

Tin is now $32,946/t

An interesting web site I was reading this evening:
https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/tin--the-forgotten-foot-soldier-of-the-energy-transition/

https://www.imeche.org/news/news-article/waves-reefs-and-gps-%27fixes%27-northstar-tackles-challenges-of-marine-autonomy

https://www.edisongroup.com/edison-explains/tin/

Tin’s use to enhance batteries was interesting- didn’t realise that

The moves to curtail artisanal mining, too, is interesting

Great gain today fellow afritinners!

I have watched the interview with Anthony trying to work out whether the seemingly vagueness around byproducts was a lack of preparation or just not being able to say due to impending news.

I think today has answered that and the lithium and tantalum are going to feature strongly. Perhaps some sort of off take deal with a tailings specialist? Jubilee metals are on their doorstep.

Tinnies all round!

Me too Dactions, and I’m glad to see him go.

Hopefully better days ahead

@Eric I'm well aware of Gupta but I think you're missing the point.

SUEH/GFG/Gupta are 43% shareholders and look likely lose their shareholding as it goes to an insolvency practitioner to liquidate (assuming their challenge fails in the Courts).

Perhaps you aren't aware of how the world works but an insolvency practitioner's role will be to assess and work out how best to recover monies owed to creditors and wind up assets. That doesn't include dumping 43% in a firesale on the open market.... not if they have any sense. In my experience they all do.... The people who generally "lose out" are Gupta's creditors (they get less of their money owed). It doesn't necessarily affect the share price (e.g. if an institutional investor picks them up).

There's trillions of funds with who have ESG objectives which would gladly pick up ESG assets already generating profitable income. An RNS when that happens could be very positive e.g. if the buyer is a FTSE350 company and a prelude to a takeover as others have speculated on.

I'm actually undecided whether to sell as I said. My post was to think through how things can progress from here and what the numbers could look like with fellow investors.

So what's your game? Shorting the stock and seeking to do a high quality deramp, is it?

thanks Sulgi, yes I'll watch that.

Like most people I was taken aback by today's annual report. But I'm trying to work out whether things are quite as bad as some would say.

Clearly on the back of a fag packet 2020 results: £12m revenue - £6m Employee Costs - £6m Depreciation of Uskmouth - £3m of other depreciation - £8m subcontractors - £4m finance costs -£4m Other Costs gets us to a £19m loss for 2020.

So what changes in 2021? (I'm assuming the things SAE have told us are in place)
1. 330MW by 2021 @ £300/MW x 365 = £27m Revenue
I'm basing 330MW on this link:
https://simecatlantis.com/investors/our-business-in-numbers/
And I'm basing £300/mw on there being a CFD this year from HM Govt for Tidal Power. And also found Nova Scotia tidal generation is around that - see this link:
https://www.marineenergywales.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ORE-Catapult-Tidal-Stream-and-Wave-Energy-Cost-Reduction-and-Ind-Benefit-FINAL-v03.02.pdf
2. Consulting Revenue +10% = £7.1m
3. OPM Revenue + 10% = £2.8m. Total Revenue £37m
4. Uskmouth gets approved and would add 220MW but let's say that's not ready until 2022.
5. 100MW New capacity is added in 2021 ready for 2022
6. Subcontractors (presumably brought in because of Covid travel restrictions although I don't know this) reduce 75%
7. Other Costs +15% and Employees + 10%

So £37m revenue - £7m Employee Costs - £6m Depreciation of Uskmouth - £3m of other depreciation - £2m subcontractors - £4m finance costs -£4.6m Other Costs gets us to a
£10m Operating Profit for 2021.

Obviously the picture gets much rosier in 2022 with higher revenue and IP sales from converting power stations using Uskmouth as the poster child. Selling tidal turbine assets to utilities to fund growth.

This doesn't attempt to think through cash flow and timings but to be fair if SAE is demonstrably profitable I find it hard to think that New Technology Capital (or other investors) won't jump at the opportunity. I hope my fag packet numbers help other investors to have a think about what to do next. As I will. I am much more encouraged having worked through some numbers this evening when my finger hovered over sell on my smart phone after skim reading the report on a tiny screen at 7.30am this morning.

GLA

Other points:
- China strategic supply, summer lull, covid economy disruption, destocking, taking profits - driving recent falls
- The above is now in the price in his view and from here sees a strong bullish continuance
- Says sees stronger supply in 1-2 years so demand "will have to do a lot of work" to keep the price high.
- Decarbonisation will fill 40-60% of that extra demand but there may be some softening medium
- Longer 5 year picture is that demand easily outstrips supply and 2023 onwards much higher prices.

All good news for Sandfire and MTR!

Key points:
- Bullish on copper 3-6 months.
- Electricity demand
- Inelastic supply
- Any rise in demand will quickly push prices
- Speculation on copper 15% of annual demand cf oil 2.5% - sentiment heavily influencing market prices too

Managed to buy in at 4.82p and can see a three inside up bullish signal this morning.

GLA

Well.... I'm in.

March 2021 - Feb 2022
Based on ATM's August 2020 numbers:
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/afritin_mining/news/rns/story/xjy92nx

Assume 720 tonnes output. Assume no byproducts. Assume $32k average tin price. Assume AISC is $19000 (I couldn't find a ATM basis for this but this is quoted as the AISC by a couple of posters on different boards, plus smelting cost. Assume OHs double to $2m/annum and Tax at 25%. Assume no dividend.
$32k-$1,577 smelting cost-$19000 AISC = $14,223/tonne x 720 = $8.2m EBITDA and $8.2-2-1.5 = $4.7m NP so around £3m less 15% to minority (ATM own 85% of UIS) or 0.21p/share. So a PE of 25.

March 2022 - Feb 2023
Using the numbers they provide in their DFS: https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/afritin_mining/news/rns/story/w0yvyzx

And assuming that we still see an average $32000/tonne price for 2022/2023 then I calculate the pay back to be 4 months, once the Phase 1 extension is complete.

I arrived at this via Tin Price/tonne $32k-$1,577 smelting cost-$16200 AISC = $14,223/tonne x 1200 = $17.1m

$5.7m capital cost/$17.1m = 0.333333 years

Assuming OH rise to $4m (particularly for higher depreciation of the extension), tax at 25%
$17.1m-$4m-$3.3 = $9.9m - 15% minority = $8.4m so £6m or 0.55p a share. A PE of 9.

So at 5p in June 2021 is not that far away from fair value, but as the Phase 1 extension gets underway and assuming this can take 8 months from June 2021 through to year end (Feb 22) then this is where profits move to a much higher level. You may think my assumptions that overheads quadruple to be too harsh - but in my experience you can't run a rapidly expanding operation on $1m bucks a year. Also you may feel an average $32k/tonne tin price is too high - or too low. I've also not included any numbers for other metals (tantalum or lithium) although I didn't read these were Phase 1 Extension - but in the presentation they seem to be aspirational phase 2. The 5 year plan with 10,000 tonnes production, developing other mines, and a basket price of metals this would start to look extremely tasty indeed.

Despite a lacklustre 2019 and 2020 and its financial numbers, the updates and particularly the Q1 uplift in production and the DFS show this has reached an inflection point, where there would be no further substantial dilution. A patient investor with a 12-24 month horizon could expect a 50-100% uplift from here, which is why I've decided to invest here.

Hi Sulgi

I am considering investing into Afritin.

I read your post where you say their cash cost as $19000/t. This seems really high? Looking at average costs other mines AISC are around $14000/t average. Refer to the diagram at: https://www.internationaltin.org/tin-supply/

Do you know AFT's AISC?

Are there any predictions for performance to Feb 2022? What does growing production to 300t/quarter do to profitability?

What a dreadfully complicated RNS!!!! Very poorly written.
So my interpretation of the value to us MTR holders is an £0.67m uplift of value. Nice!!

That’s based on the EV of Southern Golds 30% share of BMV minus its own 31/03 EV value and then MTR owns about 20% of Southern. I.e.

$13.2-5.9/1.84 x 17%

There’s some really good gold indicated resources 5-7g/tonne which they say they will rapidly developed:
See:
https://www.metaltigerplc.com/portfolio/equity-investments/active/southern-gold

Overall another great reason to hold this stock.

Wholly unwelcome but at least the content is far less serious than I'd feared.
- Main issue seems to be Intercompany transactions
- No (fraudulent) monies left PCF
- CET was 17.1% not 18.1%
- Additional costs
- Trading is unaffected

The dilution is of course an issue (7%) but if the "imminent" drilling results bear fruit then this could be a very nice deal made by ECO.

GLA

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/VIP/annual-financial-report/15028414

Value & Indexed Property Income Trust PLC reports NAV total return of 12% for the year ending 31st March 2021. This compares with the FTSE All-Share Index total return of 27%. The total return from the equity portfolio was 27% and from the property portfolio was 2.3%.

The trust declares a final dividend of 3.6p per share, making total dividends of 12.3p per share for the year to the end of March compared to 12.1p per share in the previous year. (So 5.3% Yield)

NAV per share, meanwhile, rose to 271.10p from 253.14p year-on-year. (So share price is discount of just under 20%) VIP have previously done buy backs to narrow the discount so we may see this in the year ahead.

Regarding ALM's investment in Orbital Sidekick:
The Aurora Satellite was due to be launched on the 25th June (Friday). It's been delayed and will be rescheduled.
https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/tanks-terminals/18062021/orbital-sidekick-launches-new-imaging-satellite-aurora/
https://www.space.com/spacex-delays-transporter-2-rideshare-launch