Member Info for Adw198

@doc Sirprised to hear you say it was positive and particularly that it was initially reflected in the SP - if there was any manipulation it was the opening trades for chump change at 1.60-1.70. It soon found a more appropriate level controlled by selling. Ultimately the market spoke against.

They confirmed H1 is averaging circa 200bopd against the initial quote of 200-300 with a hope to increase it. That has to be a negative?

They confirmed still no deal. I suppose they announced some progress, ie they “expect” it to be signed in February. I’d call that par at best. They did confirm storage isn’t an issue which i (and only I) had expressed concerns about.

The projected revenue figure seemed down on the numbers speculated here so not sure that’s a positive? I suppose it depends how worried one was about there being no deal agreed

No updates on Gobi or H2 - certainly not positive.

New blocks - In some circs positive but seems a classic AIM jam tomorrow play to me. Suppose that depends on your analysis of the prospects, resources required and investment objectives.

Yeah sorry I meant a JV with someone like DQE or Mongolians.

Either would be transformational to the company and share price, but especially if it was the Mongolians.

We are perhaps getting to the stage where the bad news is more baked into the price, I might even be tempted at 1.30-1.35. Can’t get away from the greater likelihood being a raise though. The other issue I see is I think this weeks update strongly implied production wouldn’t increase till spring. So there’s not much chance of a nice surprise to the upside there.

And (genuinely) without wanting to be circular or provocative in the big news here an a potential JV to fund the field?

If that lands I agree there would be a swift and significant re rate here.

I don’t like cross (de)ramping but AVCT on my watchlist.

Another good example of one still recovering from a massive discounted raise and needing to prove it’s route to commercialisation. Also seems to have quite a cult following!

I’d forgot investor filtered me. Not for anything I said about another poster, nor for anything I said about MATD - but for daring to query some of the massive craters in his self styled charting guru status.

He was similarly defensive and riled when Doc did the same yday.

He’s just another poster with misplaced smugness who is miles down and trapped here. Go back and read what he’s said - he’s said himself he’s overexposed here having averaged down and down because he got his entry so wrong.

That statement has been true since 2019. It’s not how business or the stock market works.

How can anyone calculate profit without knowing costs?

So many fanciful ifs and buts there. When a raise comes they’ll be aload of excuses and recriminations. I expected better from Investor who recognised he got caught out by last years raise from which the SP has never recovered. And all from a man who tells people to obsess about charts not fundamentals.

Jekyll and Hyde character!

“ you realise that PM can simply do a farmout with both of the new blocks”

“Can simply” is doing alot of work there.

This isn’t the same as saying there’s another company that did once arrange a farm out elsewhere in the world.

It’s a bit like the claims we have lots of funding options and then making up a list of things you’d like to happen. It’s not an option till it’s offered

These are taken from last years RNSs and suggest a H1 cash burn of circa $2.5m.

H2 sounds like materially higher (which is to be expected given the activity). I’m not including the ringfenced spend on Gobi, H2 but general running costs. Looks like they’re gone thru circa $7.5m and Gobi / H2 would presumably have only been say $4m of that.

“The Company's cash balance at 30 June 2024 was USD 1.93 million (USD 0.77 million in cash and USD 1.16 million in Financial Assets), which compares to a cash balance of USD 8.39 million (USD 0.82 million in cash and USD 7.57 million in Financial Assets) on 30 June 2023.

As of 31 December 2023, the Group's cash position was $4.5 million (inclusive of Financial Assets) (31 December 2022: $5.1 million).”

@doc

“I think many on here acknowledge they'll be a raise, probably this year and probably by end of June”

If the broker note estimating $2.5m end of year then the cash burn must be pretty significant, bearing in mind $9m was raised in June (and indeed the cash burn we know from H1. I can’t see how they’d last until even June, even without new wells.

“H3 new well in spring as well, other wells, no idea, need to wait for funding details”

Mate, you’ve no idea how they’ll pay the salaries from April, let alone fund H3 or any other well!

Utter b u l l s h I t

AGAIN

Morning Investor

I’m here because I’ll buy back in at some point. I also enjoy highlighting the many false claims and outright lies of the LTHs who are so vicious to those who don’t agree with them.

I also enjoy your own posts about your Captain Hindsight chart reading and the condescending way you speak to anyone who highlights how many different versions of the same chart reading you give. And how you sneer at other people’s inability to trade this - whilst acknowledge you’re underwater and overweight here having been tied up since 2019. Do as I preach not as I do!

Ok mate - I know you won’t be able to offer a guess as to what that support will look like, so how about we do a deal never to post again if this is or isn’t announced in these first 100 days?

Or will there be another excuse (at the bottom of the bottle!)?

So whilst MRPRAM held off approving the deal for several weeks, other Mongolian officials were plotting their funding of an AIM listed oil explorer?!

I can tell you enjoy a drink Thorn! 🍻

A textbook example of blind faith on the basis of being invested and desperate.

“It's almost as if they willfully withheld the other stuff.

Probably because they're not yet ready for the big reveal? So much more that they could have said but didn't.

Must have been for a reason”.

Is it possible the reason they didn’t unveil a big reveal is because there’s not one?

@stockmaiden

I’m the same mate - lost money here and on AIM generally. Humble and honest enough to admit it. Big drops seem much more common than big rises, certainly these days (and certainly for me!). To be fair I’ve been ok apart from 2 disasters - Asiamet and then this. It’s about taking the lessons and I feel like I understand the snakey name of the game more after Asiamet - I could tell a few stories about that one!

My main lesson so far…

CEOs are paid to give a one sided positive story, so take everything with a pinch of salt. Likewise paid for broker notes and interviews that will be scripted and paid for. Telegram groups are rampfests and these boards aren’t much better. If you aren’t relentlessly positive then you’re accused of not being a holder. If you don’t hold you’re told you can’t post. So what does that leave - not much sensible debate or a full picture.

People just want an echo chamber to comfort them. You’ll never see bulls correct each other - even someone semi sensible like Thorn just sits back and lets WOS to tell us everyday we’re funded for growth. He knows that nonsense, as were the claims of 2025 dividends and £5m - £10m winter revenue by Tenbag.

I think you’re right stockmaiden - the company prefer chasing rainbows, as that’s what excites the AIM market . Proquo actually accidentally stumbled across a very good point earlier, albeit without realising the consequences of who he was describing when said

“In fact, on reflection, it just goes to show how shallow the investment community is at this end of the market. Investors are all over the little oilers when they are in their wildcat, no assets but promising the earth phase - think 88e, Gbp etc. Once the companies get to the business end of income, production, distribution etc, the herd gets cold feet and goes off to try to find the next el Dorado. Bless 'em”

Most LTH here bought in on the dream of a field full of oil, probably calculating the value and thinking they’d get rich. Most still do. Absolutely no interest or consideration on things like funding the field and what critical levels of dilution are needed to get there. And now most are trapped hoping for miracles like a state to loan the company money to fund the 4 additional wells they all expect this year.

This has been a great lesson for me.

Yes that’s right Doc - the data is a back office job isn’t it.

But anyway - good news, I was wrong / premature. Having again looked at the RNS it seems it’s a few months and I’d interpret to be more than 2.

“The Heron-2 well testing has not achieved the flow rates we were hoping for given the enthusiasm with which Heron-1 produces, but the presence and recovery of oil is encouraging and we have some work ahead to understand the outcome so far and determine the forward programme for the well. This work will be done over the next few months as we finalise our operational programme for 2025."

For whatever reason they choose not to give an update. My money is on it not being a down hole issue.

Yep a very valid alternative. Seems a long time to me (again acknowledging it’s my field).

In make experience of AIM they’d rather hide than announce bad news. We’ll see