Member Info for Adw198

I’ve shown how much money went out of the door and what the losses were. Neither of us knows the current cash position but I’ve explained why I think it’ll be…

WOS you’re talking about well tests. If that’s how much they cost fine. We both agree the plan is not to bring them to production. Agreed?

“ADW, if you cannot tell us these costs why do you keep bleating on about 3 million that "YOU" say is unaccounted for, you do realise that much of the costs per well have already been incurred by sourcing this type of downhole and surface equipment pre drill, no, i suspect you dont.“

I’ve shown how much money went out of the door and what the losses were. Neither of us knows the current cash position but I’ve explained why I think it’ll be

“Mr ADW (and others) have state - 'Masaive $10M placing“

That’s not true.

I have previously outlined its $4m per producing well, and also highlighted you need to factor the 48% that probably won’t be brought to production.

It wasn’t me who insisted there would be 4-6 producing wells this year.

I suspect we’ll end the year with 1-2.

I can’t Abzzba.

H2 I’ve estimated $7m went out of the door though, specifically allowing $4m for Gobi and H2.

If your contention is we’re probably spending even more than previously now we’re into production we’re in agreement.

But you’ve still not answered how much cash you think we have or how much the work you insist we’re fully funded for will cost

Asked and answered on my behalf. I strongly believe Doc (unlike me) is a holder.

There’s a deal being offered to make me go away like you’re desperate for. If only your mates can find the courage of their alleged convictions…

If by rant you mean calmly and rationally quoting the figures that appear to show circa $3m per half year going out of the door, fine.

“FACT, H1, H2, Gazelle and GOBI can be worked on this year without a raise”.

That’s not a fact, it’s an opinion based on nothing but wishful thinking. You said yourself you didn’t know what work was required so couldn’t give a figure, so there’s no credibility in claiming that. Especially as you don’t know and won’t offer a view on how much cash is in the bank.

It’s simple though. I’ll happily not post again until there’s a raise if you and WOS agree not to post again if there is one.

WOS has just said

“As most will begin to understand - talk of placing is nonsense disinformation troll own purposes - carry on Lol!”

Which is interesting because on Friday he said

“No one said a placing is not 'possible' but is it 'PROBABLE' - No!“

I’m happy to agree a placing is possible. Do you still accept that or have you settled on that possibility being “nonsense disinformation”

Or perhaps was one of the posts dry humour like MB apparently likes when presenting to shareholders

Or just a normal investor who lost money here but has retained an intellectual interest.

Who knows?!

Probably best to a) address the message not the messenger and b) not pretend you’ve filtered someone

It’s the only AIM share investor owns and he wishes he didn’t - his words lads

I’m not sure it’s a great comeback to a suggestion that there is a dwindling cash pile to retort

‘But we can get a loan’

(Paraphrase)

Maybe. I’d probably go as far to say the soft loan is a nice buffer. They ran cash down to

@unnd

If that’s the running costs why did the cash disappear last year? Similarly the stated losses.

Genuine question as I recognise it might be accounting trickery / practices.

@unnd

Probably the best (and certainly the most mature) poster here.

Totally correct. And it’s not about who is right or wrong. It’s not even a problem to amend a business plan when the facts change.

But it’s absurd to offer one extremely bullish narrative, be proved wrong and still come back telling everyone how right they were (WOS). And people amend their investment decisions based upon n this guru.

The current (oil) business plan as I see it is to remediate H1 so it hopefully (and almost certainly) increase production from the current 200bopd, which is circa 25-50% down on the company’s expectations. We don’t know what production might increase to. I know this will sound derampy but I found it very odd they had to be asked about the pressure issues easing. Why not proactively offer that and / or give a broad figure what they think the medications will increase production to? Most CEOs (including MB) talk up a share. Like when he told us the PC deal was close, before later admitting they weren’t that engaged until recently. This is the AIM game!

At an unknown time they may or may not return to H2 / Gazelle / Gobi. They haven’t clarified what this might cost, certainly not to get to production. Or the likelihood of success. This strikes me as carrot dangling, another AIM classic.

And the big plan is to get a partner to develop the field. But that’s not close because he doesn’t expect it to happen this production year. Another carrot.

Those who bragged about the multiple options to develop the field have been left with a hope it happens next year. Those who said it needed a raise to do so haven’t been proven wrong.

The strong suspicion (based on the evidence) is there won’t be a raise to fund new producing wells. They’ll be a raise to keep the lights on.

@highstreet

You’ve been here since 5p from what I can see. Zero other shares.

Happy to have a sensible conversation about anything I’ve posted you disagree with.

Or you can pretend there’s a big conspiracy against you. By all means explain what you think the motives are of people who post negatively / objectively.

It’s super clear to articulate the motives of holders who are nearly all massively underwater.

Read back and you’ll see why I (say I) post, but my best advice is not to second guess the motives but address the substance. I know for a FACT there are people paid to post positively on AIM because I took legal action about it. I imagine there are people trying to talk stocks down too, but that’s much harder unless they suddenly pivot to being positive. Who here has done that?

Let’s get back to investment talk like WOS told us he wanted.

Don’t worry about 2nd guessing motives of posters, stick to the substance.

In this case, the dwindling cash pile. Or is it easier to write gibberish, unintelligible vagaries about sovereign wealth funds? Honestly what utter rubbish.

“Fully funded for growth” WOS told us. Then the AGM came and they delivered what was accurately described by a fellow ramper as a “treading water” year precisely because they conceded they had no funds and no options. The RBL, soft loan, JVs were all fake news it transpired.

Next year though, apparently, it’ll be your year lads. Nobody can explain why the investment won’t happen this year but I guess that’s where blind faith comes in handy. Especially when you’re over exposed in a Mongolian explorer.

Anyone on the fence please note the inability of anyone to discuss the funding reality. I’ve quoted the official position and added my analysis. What’s come back - zilch. Nada. Rien.

“INVESTMENT Talk please!“

Indeed. How long before the cash runs out would you say WOS (or anyone)?

$3m a half year seems the minimum they rattle through and this half there’s the added operational costs of producing oil and remediating the 1 well that’s producing oil (if not revenue).

The weird thing is hypocrites like thorn are happy jumping on other boards (they’re not invested in) telling people

“Boards will NEVER wait until the cash has actually run out to raise.

They'll want to raise about 6 months before that?“

Yet here he won’t even give a comment on the cash situation but insists they’ll be no raise.

That’s the morals and integrity we’ve got on offer here - and he’s one of the less unbalanced ones.

This is what I’m basing my assumptions and calls on

19th September RNS

“The Group posted a loss of USD 2.56 USD million for the 6-month period ended 30 June 2024, which compares to a loss of USD 1.90 million for the comparable period in 2023. *The Company's cash balance at 30 June 2024 was USD 1.93 million (USD 0.77 million in cash and USD 1.16 million in Financial Assets)*, which compares to a cash balance of USD 8.39 million (USD 0.82 million in cash and USD 7.57 million in Financial Assets) on 30 June 2023”

19th June 2024 RNS

As of 31 December 2023, *the Group's cash position was $4.5 million (inclusive of Financial Assets)* (31 December 2022: $5.1 million).

· The Group's net loss after tax for the twelve months ended 31 December 2023 was $5.93 million (31 December 2022: loss $2.95 million).“

He recently told us year end cash was $3m.

“I thought the overheads were estimated to be $200,000-$250,000 per month“

I think someone quoted this figure from the accounts last year. My logic is they went through circa $3m cash between Jan1st 24 and June 30th. Then went through another $7m H2.

Granted we can ring fence some of the H2 spend on the drills (I’ve estimated $4m) which would give the consistent cash burn of $3m per Half year.

Is that likely to be higher or lower given a) they now have production costs

b) stated they were spending more on renewables and c) have the new licences expenditure. I say higher.

But even taking the $3m half year cash burn it would give till end of the quarter to be cashless and there’s the remediation work to do too. Yes there’s stored oil but cash is dwindling.

My cash burn figures are taken from the RNSs from last year - usual caveat it’s my analysis so others may give other readings etc

@stock

“H1/H2, despite an easy fix as claimed by the company, has taken months with no reporting”

They couldn’t do the remediation during the Mongolian winter - they were clear about this.

“Matad has only £3million in the banK”

They only had $3m at year end. We’re left to speculate on what the $ (not £) figure is now. I suspect it’s

Exactly Mrswos, this a small cap Mongolian explorer on AIM - anyone who doesn’t at least CONSIDER risks is crazy.

There should be lots of fear because there’s certainly lots of uncertainty and doubt.

“Whatever is going on, it smells a bit whiffy. But it might just be me“

It’s always been whiffy. I still think they’ll sign. Interestingly WOS claimed PC are 1 of the 3 entities mentioned as being in talks - logically that may explain their games, but I doubt anyone is serious about a JV till they see what Heron 1 / 2 can actually produce in practice, not the rampers wet dreams