Member Info for Adw198

Yeah maybe Mike Buck hasn’t seen your internet links Abzzba. Or maybe he’s lying and downplaying the timeframe despite the sooner the better suiting MATD (altho guess what Thorn tried claiming the delay as a positive!)

The absurdity here has no limits :)

Of all the nonsense Abzzba peddles and the board swallows, his insistence that he knows more than Mike Buck about the progress of the refinery might be peak.

The inability of you lunatics to ever concede you got something relatively minor wrong is remarkable and entertaining.

@Doc

“Genuine question, how long does everyone think is an acceptable amount of time to sign an electronic signature???"

It’s bizarre isn’t it. Especially given how quick they were to say send us the oil we’ll store it over at winter either without a contract or with a contract they managed to sign.

I don’t think it’s that’s credible the official version as it was mid January we were told it was with them (and for all we know it could have been earlier).

What’s less clear is what the real reason is. I’ve speculated it’s perhaps PC trying to keep a strong hand whilst negotiating a JV or purchase - which I’d regard as extremely bullish and something that would rocket the SP. But all very odd.

@investor Find me a quote where I said something that I got wrong about the pressure and I’ll happily accept its subsequently been proven to be wrong.

You know, like the quotes I’ve shared from almost all the rampers that has been wrong. Yet dismissed.

Such as Investors claims about expecting a November / December rally. Or Abzzbas woeful production estimates. WOS telling us every other week a MASSIVE RNS is due (turns out the headers aren’t always right).

Or we’ve got Tenbag telling us to expect £5m -£10m revenue. Thorn telling us Heron 2 was on the periphery. Everyone telling me the sales deal was already signed etc etc.

Over to you lads

I thought we might jump a bit more than this as it massively derisks things. I expected at least 10% and I think someone else (was it you Genghis?) was talking in 50% terms.

Sure it will continue to rise over the coming sessions and some profit taking fair and to be expected as anyone (genuinely) invested should be making very good money up here. And a very rich newsflow period over the next month or 2.

Thanks again to HarChris for sharing his thoughts and intel you absurdly 🎯 this!

Abzzba you told us it would be producing >400bopd over the winter.

You were wrong. Best to just ignore me like Thorn has to when the facts, “quotes” and questions get too hard.

Keep dreaming about producing wells you can’t afford. :)

The latest false claim

“Heron 2 and Gazelle are planned to be done together, which one first probably doesn't matter“

The truth

“workover at Heron 2 *could* be combined in a cost-effective manner with well testing of the nearby Gazelle 1 oil discovery. Gazelle 1 is now considered to be a *candidate* for test production”

The reality

They don’t currently have funds for this work. It’s why they can’t tell us which will be done eg “activities will focus on some or all of the Heron, Gazelle and Gobi Bear wells”.

Anyone who disagrees is welcome to provide an estimate of the costs and where that money is coming from given there was only $3m left 3 months ago.

Great find.

Be good to know what the resolution looks like though

Excellent post Pacifo, it’s not been the first delay and this particular one has really made it clear (imo) that they’ve been wrestling with the economics of the project. I say that because as you say the 2024 story was it was being released end of year, but they than began the extra drilling in November / December, around the time he started saying it’d be touch and go for December. Obviously by early 25 they then gave themselves Q1, which is quite a big delay if it’s so close to end of year. And now this final not so subtle clue that pops up literally the week it was due. I’m sceptical it’s otherwise packaged and ready to go as he’s indicated. I also suspect we’ll be fortunate if it’s this year. My impression is there’s more drilling planned, then wait for results, then the rework to the study. Equally it’s all added bale and strengthening the economics so it’s not bad.

Anyway, not being directly critical of Segen, he’s got a job to do and is ultimately protecting shareholder interest. For me it’s just another reminder that what you see isn’t alway what you get on AIM.

I’d also picked up on what I consider fairly conservative language from him re Douta, even in this latest interview he says part of the reason for the delay is because it’s not just an academic exercise as “we believe we have a project we can build and want to build”, which doesn’t scream of extolling the commercial virtues like AIM CEOs usually do. We know he’s quite cautious though.

Final minor whinge from me - I think we’d benefit from a slightly clearer timeline for Segilola extensions. I appreciate its drilling related but it’s unclear exactly how long is left as is and again it would be good to hear him give more direction about whether anything extra has already been assessed. At some point, as with Douta, presumably a line needs to be drawn.

Anyway, the SP held up well and I actually took a few more when the buyers stepped in at 22.95. I’m not a chartist but it looked like the old 23p resistance might be support - a lovely base for when the good news hopefully begins to land. That broker note was a bit skinny I thought!

As suspected no actual examples Tenbag, just more baseless accusations from a discredited clown.

Tenbag you accused us of being deramping FUD spreading negs when we disputed your claims that’s the PC sales agreement was signed in October. It’s April next week and it’s still not signed.

You said the same when we queried your assertion there would be £5m - £10m winter revenue. There’s currently been no revenue at all and the stockpile is circa 10% of your expectation.

Likewise when we queried your assertions of a 2025 dividend - which needless to say was more utter nonsense.

So if anyone’s daft enough to make investment decisions based on what they read here let’s hope they don’t read what you and the rest of the shameless, discredited rampers.

Now, feel free to provide a list of assertions I’ve got wrong or misrepresented. Or just all make baseless accusations.

Yep and you said they’ll be a deal this year, ie you went beyond him.

Instead of a d I c k why don’t you answer - why do you think it’s unlikely anyone wants to do a deal to drill this year?

If the CEO said there would be a deal this year I missed it. Where was that please?

The awkward question still stands - why’s it unlikely anyone wants to do a deal to drill this year?

So you’re contention is they WILL sign a deal this year but the partner will defer the actual drilling till next year, for reasons you can’t explain?

Fair smith, you’re entitled to your opinion. Just like you were before the AGm when you said

“The Sales agreement will figure but the overall reaction will likely be determined by the big plans/decisions that are hopefully announced.

We need plans and action to get Heron going anything else will disappoint”

The big plan was to try and find a partner for next years drilling. And you’re not disappointed as you said but delighted. Funny old game!

Yep a fair minor correction but probably more of a bit pick if you’re really saying you think the deal will be done in November / December because they’re the only months it won’t be possible weather wise.

Either way, can you answer why it won’t happen in time for drilling this year or do you want to ignore it again?

Anyway, I stand by my view they’ll be no deal this year and you can stand by saying it will - and it’ll also be 20p this year. Fun year ahead finding out and I’m sure you’ll take it with great humility if you’ve once again called it wrong.

“You don't think there's going to be a Heron Field deal this year?“

I don’t. Because the CEO who is close to the detail (yet paid to be positive) said he thinks it’s unlikely. He’s also said he’s Petro Matad is “stepping up its efforts to secure a partner to join it in developing the Heron oil field and the rest of Block XX”.

Doesn’t sound like they’ve got very far to me.

Despite being told repeatedly by this board of the the mutitide of options to develop Heron in 2025, it appears none are currently viable. Probably because they want actual proof of what comes out of Heron, not just in Abzzbas fictional textbook.

And by my calcs they won’t be able to fund anything beyond the H1 fix in the short term- medium term. So bear that in mind folks.

Yeah I get the ‘I’m invested so I should be positive’ logic but for me it stinks of falling in love with a share and not evolving the appraisal as the facts change. When I’m invested I seek out / welcome the risks because it’s all good to know. And if the facts and / or other people’s opinions unsettle me so much it shows the weakness in the bull case.

There’s some out and out liars on here but I think thorn would pass a lie detector on his beliefs, but just because he’s convinced himself there’s no risk etc.

I was making the point it’s not me who is obsessed with or setting down timeframes.

Like you I don’t care about headers or try to insist everyone uses positive ones.

I don’t think they’ll announce a JV this year and I absolutely don’t think it’ll be 20p this year. I’m 99% sure you’re not so naive to think the latter either.

Out of interest why don’t you think it’s likely any of them would agree a deal to drill this year?

The title of the header suggests your side are the ones concerned with the timeframe Thorn.

I do agree if you’re a committed long termer and not bothered what the journey looks like you should just switch off and not be so giddy by the daily moves up when they happen.

FWIW I also think it’ll move up over the next week / month as the PC deal must surely be signed soon (yes lads, the one you all swore blind was signed in October)

And whilst you’re at it perhaps you could also recognise you were also making it up when you claimed the talks were “advanced”.

Once again the truth isn’t good enough so you felt insecure enough to embellish it.