Member Info for Adw198

It definitely is different Abzzba. As I’ve explained several times the MAXIMUM is different to the average it can / will produce.

They initially expected 200-300 and are obviously at the bottom end of that. As the November RNS quoted

“production is currently choked back to a range between 200 and 300 bpd. Whilst this is in line with our pre-production aspiration for an initial stabilised rate, the indications of sustained potential for the well to produce at higher rates are under review, to see if modifications at surface can be made to increase the stabilised flow rate”

They subsequently advised when they went above 200bopd the sand became an issue which needs a simple cheap fix. They’ve never clarified if the additional modifications they referenced are needed. Yday they said the pressure issues had gone which implies they can SUSTAIN production at higher. I find it curious they’ve not thought it appropriate and helpful to volunteer this seemingly excellent news. I might have missed it or might be confused given my

lack of oilfield experience.

Either way nobody at the company has ever given an indication 500bopd is likely that’s just you repeating what you told us to expect over the winter. When the reality was 40% of your expectations. But you remain happy :)

If they get to 500bopd then great.

We’ve heard before from experts such as Abzzba about how easy / likely that was an he was wrong by a long way. Nothing wrong with being wrong just at least acknowledge it. The company themselves don’t feel able to give such guidance which I suspect is for a reason.

I’m probably going to get lynched for this (especially the people like Proquo and investor who don’t read what I actually say but take issue with it ) but I’m a little sceptical the pressure issues have just gone away. I can’t argue that’s what he said but very odd to highlight an issue in the November RNS and when it fixes itself not to release that and only mention it when asked. Basically I’ll be surprised if H1 produces 500bopd from say May onwards. Only an opinion tho.

What’s the lie Abzzba?

I’m not saying we will or won’t hit 500bopd. I’m saying to my knowledge the company themselves haven’t guided that but if I missed I’ll happily correct it.

Obviously you told us to expect 500bopd plus over the winter didn’t you. Which was wrong. I’d put that down to a lack intellect rather than a deliberate attempt to lie.

“Mid April and 500 barrels a day ($7,500,000 profit per year).

Hmm, almost half our current Market Cap.

Surely some mistake there?”

There definitely is - as usual you’re either mistaken or deliberately misleading so here comes your nitpick klaxon.

Firstly nobody other than the massively discredited Abzzba has said 500bopd is likely.

Secondly the MCAP is currently £21.15m or $27.36m.

So the (made up) “profit” figure would be more like a quarter of the MCAP.

RBL is not “always an option” it’s not an option right now he said that.

There is no evidence the Mongolian state would fund it, that was never mentioned by MB it was just your theory. It’s fair our is positioned as a speculative theory but you and others portray it as an option.

Why are the 3 JV potential partners not getting involved this drill season in your view?

Thorn, are you really saying that the fact none of those forms of financing are being utilised is evidence they’re available?

He mentioned a soft loan but I don’t think that’s for the $10m required to find say another 2 producing wells. Otherwise he said Heron 1 wasn’t enough to be able to obtain RBL for and generally said access to capital is limited or difficult (can’t recall exact word).

Whether or not the current strategy is the best one is a slightly different point. But even then it’s NOT the one you and Proquo expected or wanted. You may as well be honest about that because your posting history is in the public domain.

Proquo said

“before yesterday they were screaming endlessly that the company would need to raise millions for a drill programme and then yesterday they were screaming endlessly that the drill programme was not happening, the company was 'battening down the hatches' and not raising for an ambitious drill programme!! Absolutely damned if we do, damned if we don't”.

I think the debate was whether all the options you and the lads listed were actually viable (RBL, JV, Soft loan from Perovis, Mongolian state investment, JV, DQE deferred payment etc). If not, then the alternative was a massively dilutive raise.

Given he confirmed none of the above are happening I’d suggest the objective cautious realists were proved right. Those insisting there would be several new producing wells were wrong.

So what you’re left with is a company telling us they need to reduce overheads, whilst simultaneously listing the work they need to do. With the added overhead of the new blocks.

Then next year hopefully they’ll find a partner - a partner that doesn’t want to get involved this year for whatever reason. I’d suggest (as I previously have) that the reason is because they want more evidence of what Heron can actually produce, as opposed to what the peak test result was 6 years ago.

Abzzba do you a) accept MBs update that the refinery isn’t scheduled to be ready till 2028 - I noted you repeated several times your claims it’ll be 2026 and b) do you agree with Thorn that the 2 year delay is good?

The facts that have changed Thorn are all the things you told us to expect this year aren’t happening. And you call that good news.

@manx re read what I said.

Of the $7m I allocated $1.5m for Gobi which is what we were told. Heron 2 is hard to know exactly what it cost - they told us a producing well costs $4m. As it’s not a producing well we’re left to speculate what it cost - I’ve allocated $2.5m but you’re welcome to have a guesstimate yourself.

So another $3m went out of the door based on those figures.

Re funds they went through $7m in H2 24.

If we say circa 1.5m Gobi and 2.5 H2 that leaves a burn of circa $3m.

So if that rate continues into 2025 there’s cash till June, obviously a bit longer if the stored oil gets sold.

They’ve just listed all the things they want to spend money on non of which include further Heron new wells. They’ll be a raise imo but simply to keep going. If it’s wrong so be it, all opinions should be allowed especially ones supported by figures and logic

Nobody is currently making money here.

Embarassing to claim you’re not bothered by the SP a week after commentating and bragging on every tick up in the false rise Thorn.

Deep down you must be very disappointed because none of the things you expected are happening.

Thorn you’ve lost your mind telling Doc he’s called it wrong and the like of WOS and you have called it right. Doc told us yday with almost faultless accuracy what he thought was most likely today. Unlike you lot he also concedes he might not be right about everything.

Today they all but confirmed there is no viable option to fund more Heron wells this year. So it’s absurd to claim those assertions about all the alternative options have been proved right. It’s why WOS has to lie about the talks being “advanced”.

They’ll be a small raise to cover the needed remedial work and keep the wolf from the door. There is now a huge risk in terms of what is they can’t find the JV partners they’ve so far failed to get signed up - then what?

Honestly, have some humility lads. Another RNS you all hail as good and another drop in the SP.

It’s not “trash” thorn it’s people discussing risks alongside opportunities.

The risks we’ve been discussing have just been validated. There are no viable options to develop Heron this year beyond the tweaks.

Praising WOS after someone shared his long list of nonsense ramping headers shows the desperation. Especially given he’s once again been caught lying with his “advanced” talks claims.

I’ve listened to most of the meeting and it was a car crash imo. Some truly ridiculous questions. I’m not sure anyone here said MB was “coerced” into buying. We just highlighted his own words that his purchase was crucial to getting a raise away. His reasons for buying “optimistism” whilst acknowledging it’s “not without risk” a sober summary. As it should be given the SP is now a 3rd down on his purchase, which itself was a 45% discount.

WOS insisted RBL was an option Buck said it’s not yet

Abzzba insisted the refinery was ready 2026 - Buck said 2028 but it keep slipping.

Yet these people tell us they’re delighted.

The bubble burst today, I can’t see any reason for a rerate the only hope is a PC Heron buyout which he did make some promising murmurings about.

None of the options the likes of Proquo listed for growth are getting advanced either.

Jam tomorrow Thorn.

You told us this was the year and it sounds like they’ve just confirmed they aren’t in fact funded for growth as your mate WOS insisted. They’ll be no new Herons, they’ll just try to improve the 2 they’re got. Which won’t be free.

What good news are you expecting in the new few weeks? I suppose there’s potentially the sales deal but anything else?

Thorn you must be a happy chippy in real life.

You said you’d be happy with dilution if it funded 4-6 wells. Same if there was a JV or sale. Now it’s none of those things and they’re instead taking it slow and steady you’re happy with that too.

Basically if they told you anything you’d be happy!

Thanks Manx and Wigster

Sounds like he’s not expecting a JV that would lead to anything operational this year. If true, that means they’ll be no Heron 3 etc this year and they’ll concentrate and improving H1 and (some of) the others. If so there won’t be a rerate (up) this year because at best they’ll move towards self sufficiency.

One has to to wonder what the JV partners are waiting for? My earlier suggestion that they might want to see how H1 and H2 resolve first might be right.

I’m pretty surprised the SP has held, to me the above is confirmation of limited income in 2025, plus there’s still the doubt as to whether they’ll indeed be income and also the added bad news of the refinery not being ready in 2026 as the ultras insisted. But apparently there was no bad news today :)

As for asking if he was WOS - he’d be acting unlawfully if he was and probably criminally. An absurd question to be honest! Likewise dividends when they’re skint.

To those saying there might be big news in the next few weeks what exactly are you expecting / hoping for?

As a non holder I didn’t attend the AGM.

Could Doc or someone else sensible confirm the following was said / asked

1. MB confirmed there would be no JV in 2025?

2. He was asked if he was WOS?

3. He was asked about a dividend?

We’ll see if there’s a raise or not. You were wrong last year Investor and others.

Perhaps those of us who think they’ll be one this year will be wrong - if so I’ll happily concede my mistake. It’s just a view on a binary event so be careful bragging in March

So the 4/6 producing wells you wanted in 2025 aren’t happening Thorn?

But you’re happy anyway.

Behave