Member Info for adoubleuk

feelinlucky,

"what do peeps think?..."

Here's what one 'peep' thinks, in teply to your questions.

"stick in a really fast Lincoln appraisal/ delineation vertical well, report to oga findings as soon as available even if rig still busy on site"

Possible.

"proceed with LC hookup, then when finished data gathering Lincoln appraisal well "

Very very highly improbable.

"demobilise rig and nip over to remedy water zone/s on Lancaster (probably just 7Z so as not to take out the production earnings)....

Yet mor every very very highly improbable. Water-cut from 7z is not a problem, so why spend rigtime money on it?

"just about do-able?"

Sure. If one has sh** for brains.

Fred_Bloggs,

"It reeked of desperation when HUR tied up with a zombie outfit like Centrica (Spirit Energy). "

How do you figure that ? Hurricane got a 'free carry' for three wells in almost uncharted territory. And it now has the data, and the data / logs are the crown jewels, not a producing well. It's uncertain how much of the cost of LC P&A will be borne by the company: I suspect it'll be 50 / 50 Hurricane and Spirit.

Yes, of course, the entire JV is now in question, what with the CV19 thing putting everything on hold. But again 'everything' in the O&G world, or rather the entire financial world, is very uncertain right now, and there's nowt to be done about it, so why worry about Hurricane specifically?

I don't see the 'Spirit deal' as having been 'desperation' at all. Warwick and Lincoln got drilled, essentially for free, in exchange for 50% 'ownership' rights. Without that deal, Hurricane may have been obliged to give up the block unless they themselves financed a well.

What is 'odd' (and distinctly fishy) is that OGA won't consider LC as 'delineation'.

Careful,

"surrounding licences have been awarded to BP then and the squeeze is on."

Affirmative. And I believe Shell grabbed some acreage as well. 'Squeeze' is an appropriate descriptive term. I believe it's what's happening: Hurricane's being 'squeezed'.

Some consideration should be given to the 'back story'. Even before IPO and going public, Dr T had managed to raise the money to drill quite a few wells to prove his fractured basement theories. And back then, the big boys could easily ignore him, considering him to be a maverick who'd struck it lucky finding the financial backing to fund his madcap ideas. But now they can't. The Lancaster EPS is really rubbing their noses in it (especially BP), and they're answerable to their shareholders. And those BP shareholders who've actually heard of Hurricane and know the story (probably a minority) are most likely spitting sh** in the knowledge that 'their' company turned a deliberately blind eye on what is possibly the bigest bonanza on the UK Continental Shelf, and waaay more cost-efficient than things like Clair.

Yes, I believe the 'squeeze' is on. And don't believe that Big Oil is completely unconnected with 'stockmarket manipulation'.

JockJoy,

"Adoubleuk- the last para in your 1105 post may have hit the nail on the head re Big Oil using their ‘influence’ with the OGA."

Thank you. I'm not making any 'accusations', but believe that if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and floats on water, it's probably a duck.

Someone somewhere has forced Hurricane into making some tough poker-like decisions over the last six months or so. Folding a pair of kings can be a difficult thing to do, but sometimes you have to. Even aces ! The 'voyage of the Seawell' (which included the Whirlwind P & A) was notably absent during the CMD except in passing reference. Likewise possible P & A of LC hasn't figured in any forward-planning graphic charts in the company's updates.

Hurricane is being 'pushed' to do this stuff. It beggars belief in common-sense terms, and (if my suspicions are even just halfway correct) is rather scandalous. But somewhat understandable, nevertheless. If one shows up the school bully as being a coward and a fool, it's quite likely he'll get you into a corner some day and beat you up even harder...

Sailplane,

"So if the OGA will not be flexible enough on this P&A issue, why can't HUR get underway with coupling up the Lincoln crestal well to the FPSO , so preventing it being an unused well that needs to be P&A'd .?"

I'm afraid that made me chuckle.

It's not as easy as that! OK, LC was drilled and DST'd with a good result. But then recompleting it and tying it back will / would involve some serious capex and some serious engineering work. It's not something which could be achieved overnight. And it mustn't be forgotten that Lincoln is near the limits (in terms of distance) for tie-in to the AM, anyway.

My impression is that OGA is simply no longer playing the 'nice guy' that they were when they granted Hurricane the licence extention all the way up to Halifax, 'out of round'. And that that particular move may have p***ed-of some other (bigger) players in the area. Understandably. So now, they're being tough, and insisting that the small print be adhered to. Including the Whirlwind P&A and licence relinquishment.

This might be just a piece of sky in a big jigsaw puzzle, but it fits perfectly.

Genghis,

"why Whirlwind was surrendered (at the REQUIREMENT of the OGA) at a w/o cost of £Ms.. It makes no sense at all to surrender WW..."

Personally I think I understand it, and also (as a shareholder) would approve it had the idea been put to a vote. Whirlwind has always been something of an enigma. Maybe an ugly duckling which could turn into a swan, but of unknown colour. It's 'gassy' (not very good news) and the oil's (or is it condensate?) not the same as Lancaster. Tieback of Whirlwind (or its development) would be expensive, as it's deeper water. Continuing to hold the licence would have required drilling a further well on the lease, which would have eaten up capital with no real near-term gain to be reaped from it. So I feel it's better to concentrate on the birds in hand than those in the bush.

This doesn't go far to explain why OGA has so far seemingly remained stubbornly intractable regarding LC. I strongly suspect they may be being 'leaned on' by a couple of Majors who now hold the adjacent blocks, and who might benefit from making things as awkward as possible for Hurricane / Spirit.

AquaeSulis,

"Just a thought, but with lockdowns being eased globally and use of public transport being discouraged, there will be a lot more fuel being consumed than normal as people switch from public to private transport and of course car sharing will no longer be in vogue."

There is an article about this in today's 'World Oil' e-newsletter. Satellite reconnaissance over China has revealed that despite an increase of oil imports into that country post-lockdown, inventory in storage is being drawn down, as well. Road traffic around Beijing is considerably higher than at the same time last year, and 'subway ridership' is down 50% in Beijing and 30% in Shanghai.

It strikes me as highly likely that the same trend will be seen in the USA.

Maybe less in Europe, though. Listening to the radio yesterday, I heard that a poll of employers indicates that of the number of employees able to 'work from home', as many as 20% may continue to do so. Because there is better productivity, and less absenteeism. (This in France: dunno about other countries or the UK.)

Albi 1,

"We're sleepwalking into oblivion ... "

Speak for yourself.

Me? Just preparing for the inevitable. If I can make some money out of my HUR shares it'll just cushion the shock for a little while.

Longwait,

"Take a look at the latest daily fatality figures"

Why?

Some of us are sick and tired of the Eurovision Deathrate Contest.

Between Russia and KSA getting into a childish spat over oil, CV19 raising its head, and worldwide politicians generally having an IQ no better than an earwig's, we're now economically back into the dark ages. And if that doesn't bother you, for the sake of 'saving lives', well it does for me. Maybe I'm just selfish.

It remains an unfortunate fact that despite all attempts by medical professionals over the centuries, the 'death rate' for human beings worldwide, and from whatever causes, remains stubbornly at 100%.

pete,

"Selling I think. 5.35% to 4.92%"

Correct.

I don't think much should be read into Alken reducing their holding. Note that the actual company concerned is Alken SICAV. A 'SICAV' is an odd sort of savings / investment account one can open in French-speaking countries (of which Luxembourg is one) by banks, as well as other fund-management companies. A SICAV 'promises' a higher interest-rate than the base-rate, but is based on the stockmarket, so nevertheless carries a certain element of risk. Alken has obviously figured that their holding in HUR will not near-term allow them to fulfil their obligations to their own clients, so has downsized a bit. Which is reasonable, given considerable uncertainty in O&G across the board.

So I reckon this is Poo -related, not specific to Hurricane. Also it should be noted that their sell (and presumably there was a buyer !) represents only a small part of their entire holding.

In fact, I consider that a company offering SICAV accounts being present is a good sign. I hadn't really taken notice of Alken's presence before.

Fred_Bloggs,

"But, exactly how to traders collude off the record to manipulate Hurricane Energy stock? "

Email, Twitter, phone calls, etc..?

MCB55,

I sincerely hope you know this one, as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zK8Fn9ge6UU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zK8Fn9ge6UU

Well it was today. It's been a while, so time for some music...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGheV059UBA

Fred_Bloggs,

" I hope for another blue day here."

Usually when someone writes that early in the morning, it means a horrible closing.

Keep up the good work, please.

pete da street,

"And now.headlines of the supply demand mismatch reversing!"

Yup. But Reuters supplies, the others copy, and the headlines copy each other.

I got an email today from my brother, who in some terms is a rather 'reclusive' person, living with his wife in a wild and isolated bit of Herfordshire. Not 'off-grid' or anything crazy like that. Doesn't have a television, definitely doesn't 'facebook', but doesn't go into town much. Stays in touch with things but at a distance.

He brought up an interesting point. As this pandemic pandemonium subsides, after maybe its second or third 'wave', what is going to be the preferred means of getting to work? Single-occupancy cars, with the windows rolled up tight and the a/c on. Especially in the USA. Public (fuel-efficient) transport will be shunned.

Sailplane,

Careful with that first link you posted. It's 'advertorial' sponsored by TOTAL, to show how 'green' they are.

johnpwh,

"Appreciate your opinion Pecten, but personally as far as I am concerned a once and for all filter removes for all time any danger of reading anything provocative enough to prompt the longed for reply/attention. "

I agree with you. I've been on LSE BB's for thirteen years or so (since I started investing in AIM companies) but it was only a few months ago that I actually started using the filter facility. And it makes life a lot easier.

Way back, three or four years, on this HUR BB, I used to get into some terrible to-and-fro arguments with various people, as did others. But they were largely technical, or trying to outguess the company with speculative ideas. Most of my old sparring-partners seem to have got themselves banned over time for some misdemeanor or other (and not due to me), and in some ways it's a bit of a shame. I rather miss people like Carnegie and Ricfle (remember them?). At least they were articulate and sometimes funny.

But now, the people I've got filtered at present (only three) are just downright dumb.

Also, there's a whole lot of fun to be had when one posts, and a 'green box' immediately follows. I grin, imagining the frustration that filtered person must feel when I don't respond, having not read his post!

Of course, one can always 'unfilter', even if it's just for a few minutes, before putting the troll back in its cage.

canetois,

"629600 bo"

I make it 625800 bbl.

But maybe that's splitting hairs...

johnpwh,

"Think you were all a bit Harsh on Dr T. I assume the CMD presentation needn't have been published? We should be thankful it was, though even I (who tries to be nice to everyone unless I've had too much gin) admit that I am trying to watch it a second time but keep failing to stay awake. "

I see what you're getting at, and in some way agree with the sentiment, but only the sentiment bit. No complaints about the presentation in terms of the powerpoint slides. But presumably those were the same slides to have been used if the 'live' CMD had happened a month previously. But they had a month to prepare for the webcast event.

But for a couple of grand and expenses, any one of hundreds of youtube-jockeys could have stage-managed the thing better when it went 'online'. Or, as has been mentioned before, there was no reason why not to pre-record it, and just go live for the Q & A.

This is not nit-picking. It was an amateurish shambles, where the WAY it was presented masked a great part of the message being imparted. Personally I remain in a state of shock because of that. And have tried re-watching bits of it from time to time, but given up.

"get 1/2 sidetrack wells drilled and start pumping from a shallower depth. There are two 10m perched water columns (both wells) being drained so pump the oil from above them and the water cut will be significantly be reduced."

Ah, we've got a new 'expert' here.

Anyone who uses the term 'pumping oil' from the Lancaster reservoir is one of two things. Either someone who knows very little about the technicalities, but if they admit that, they're forgiven. Or they're someone like this twirp 'somm', who thinks he knows best, but still uses the phrase. And they're not.

Somm, me ol' jumpin' bean. The only 'pumping taking place is when they're doing a transfer between the FPSO and the shuttle tanker.

Btw, where do you suggest your hypothetical 'sidetrack' could kick off from? Right back up just below the 13-3/8" casing shoe? 'Cos it'd be hard to sidetrack from the existent buildup sections...

Either grow up or shut up. Preferably both.