Member Info for adoubleuk

What am I doing awake at this ungodly hour of the day and wasting my time scribbling on this BB, you may ask? Well, for two or three reasons. One of which being I keep odd hours, and if Idon't sleep well. I get up and do something. And a couple of things (or a hundred) were trotting around through my head.

Longwai' wrote:

"You could say that from around 1969, air travel was never the same again."

I wouldn't know. The first time I travelled by air was in 1972, an Air France flight London-Bordeaux (in a Caravelle!) and it was all new.... But now? Being 'self-loading freight' (even in club class) isn't worth the money.

"Secondly, I am not against people being required to wear masks or limit close contact with others, until the epidemic is over, but I can't see people accepting such practices till the end of time."

Well I do. Firstly because I bridle against any 'requirements ' about how I may or not dress, and secondly because this so-called 'epidemic' (or 'pandemic') hasn't even started. Less than 10% of people have caught it, seemingly. It requires at lest 70% before the virus dies out. Though that 10% figure comes from statistics of people who have been 'tested'. So in fact, it could be 50%. Or already 70%. Have you been for a 'test'? Do you you to get a 'medical test' unless it's obligatory, or you suddenly feel seriously ill? I don't. Same way I don't take my car to the garage unless there's something wrong with it.

But anyway, there's another reason I'm writing at this ungodly hour, and that was reading some of yesterday's posts about alcoholic drinks and some peoples' '6pm rule', which is a thing I certainly don't even attempt to adhere to right now. These are depressing times (stockmarket, etc.), so why not get PROPERLY depressed? Booze can help in that. In my book, nothing exceeds like excess.

Pink gin? OK, nowt wrong with that. Except that the only reason for can be that it's cheap gin, so needs something to change the taste. But there are other things.

I have travelled wide and far in my life. And absolutely the best breakfast I have had (more than once) is at the Lagos Sheraton International Airport. I kid you not. Best breakfast in the world? Nigeria. Hey! On the buffet there were TWO bacon trays. You could have 'floppy bacon', or 'crispy bacon'. That good.

But another good thing was the 'Bloody Mary corner' and one didn't need to feel shy about using it, as it was highly populated.

Personally, I've discovered / invented a new drink, which I think could be maybe called a 'Coronavirus ****tail'. It seems remarkably good. To be taken immediately after breakfast, which for me these days means around 14:00.

Take a large whisky glass. Pour in 1/4 of its volume of whisky. Add one spoonfull of 'Isostar' sports drink powder, and a little water. Stir, to disolve the Isostar. Then, another 1/4 volume of white wine. Top up with beer, lager-type, the cheaper the better.

Might sound disgusting, but don't knock

* 'before'

Beyond...

Longwait,

"I stand (or sit) corrected. It just goes to show how long it is since I last played poker..."

Yeah, it's only on the TV where they have those 'big' card-tables. And it's just for the cameras, anyway.

But how about cinemas and theatres? Tube trains? Aircraft (especially 'low cost'). ? The queue for an Eric Clapton concert?

'Strictly Come Dancing'?

Keeping people a metre apart?

It just won't work.

They've 'stopped the machine' because part of the machine was under-maintained. Why do 'care homes' and suchlike industries exist, anyway? Because 'national systems' become uneconomical maintaining humans before their bury-by date.

Maybe that's why the churches have been closed. Maybe because their promises of immortality have been shown to he untrue. That's a problem with mass 'social media' communications: certain myths are now getting debunked.

Me? Just want to get on the road and live dangerously again. Secure in the very happy knowledge that the moment I'm living may be my last one.

Lorem Ipsum.

Res est loquatur.

Storage space is running out, but they won't let me drive my car to burn some of the stuff.

Longwait.

"I think a compromise is possible, Double, and you could play cards (raising stakes through masks) while sitting two meters away from one another.
As I recall, poker players like to keep a safe distance from each other anyway, so as to safeguard their cards' faces."

Sorry to return to this theme (which bothers some people), but your recollections are wrong.

At a card-table, people are crammed close to each other, even in a 'private game'.

A very unhealthy sort of environment, really! Someone has a cold, everyone will have it next week.

But the point is, who cares?

When I leave a casino and I've won, and just in case some bandit's noticed, they may get a surprise. Because I'm (legally) armed.

I've been in contact with an enormous number of players lately. They don't care about the virus. Just want to know when we can go back to work again.

DC,

"Somewhat ironic for a country that banned the hijab."

Yes.

Longwait,

"Secondly, I am not against people being required to wear masks or limit close contact with others, until the epidemic is over"

Well I effin am! I can't go play cards with friends, I can't travel, I can't exchange a kiss in the cheek with the various young ladies I know? My local bars and restaurants and bars are closed, with their owners going broke?

All on the say-so of some politicians I didn't vote for anyway?

I object to it strongly.

And anyway, as soon as 'lockdown' is 'eased, of course the 'epidemic' will return. In Europe, less than 10% of people have caught the thing, so 'herd immunity' is impossible, and anyway, it's still unknown whether having caught it gives you immunity.

JoeSoap,

"The Oktoberfest 2020 will not take place due to the Corona pandemic."

And I suppose that takes place in October.

In which case I guess that a gathering of about 3000 poker-players in Spain, in September, is probably out the window as well. Though no actual news yet.

But if the Costa Brava isn't open this summer, people will starve.

daltry,

" Yes, all this soothsayer crap talk is beginning to grate."

Oops. A little bit earlier I wrote in reply to Longwait " I forsee significant changes for quite a long time. "

And that may seem a bit like 'soothsaying'.

So be it. But nevertheless, it doesn't take much wit to appreciate that the 'new normal' isn't going to be much like the old one, or at least not in the near future. And by that I mean the next two or three years minimum. 'Negative oil prices'? That's a new paradigm. The markets in worse shape than the 17th century tulip-bulb 'crash' ?

Personally, I've become someone who doesn't make plans for much more than a fortnight ahead. Or even if I DO have such plans, remain quite aware that they might fall on their face tomorrow, usually due to circumstances beyond my control.

And now, it's ALL beyond my control, or yours, or anyone else's. Including that of 'governments', who like to 'be in control'. It's not the virus which shut down the machine, it's the people who are supposed to keep the thing running. And now, they don't know where the starting-handle is.

If the NHS was in risk of being 'overwhelmed', whose fault was it? Those of the people dying, those of the people working for the NHS, or those of the people reassuring us that the system was 'robust' and could cope with anything, although it obviously didn't have the backup to remain so?

Recommended reading. 'SYSTEMANTICS' a (How Systems Work and Especially How They Fail) by John Gall.

Longwait,

"I remember the same cliché, after 9/11, yet what happened on that day has never happened since."

OK, market's closed, we can go a bit O/T.

I don't think your comparison holds water. Post 9/11 there WERE significant changes. Although there hasn't been a repeat of that atrocity, there have been numerous mindless large terrorist attacks, mainly 'Islamist' (note that word, deliberately chosen, as distinct from 'Muslim'). London, Madrid, Manchester, St Tropez, etc.. Equally police anti-terrorist work has greatly expanded. But how about for people not directly involved? Well for starters, air-travel, never a great joy, has become a purgatory, especially groundside.

"The use of this cliché is, in my opinion, a measure of the inflated importance people today, led by the dominant mass media, attach to themselves, and to their place in 'history.'"

I tend to agree with you. But nevertheless, I forsee significant changes for quite a long time. For instance, this side of the channel, there's serious talk about wearing a facemask compulsory in public on the 'way out of lockdown'. What? A government-imposed dress-code? That's a serious infringement of my liberties. It may seem frivolous, but are people going to be allowed to sit side-by-side in cinemas, theatres, casinos and restaurants (those restaurants which haven't already gone bankrupt, that is) ? How the devil is one supposed to drink a glass of beer in a cafe while wearing a facemask?

Personally I still feel the sinister and Orwellian side of this whole thing. Maybe, a few hundred years from now, historians will describe this as the 'Covid Scare' when the world went mad. But that's assuming that there will be some historians around.

Yobbo,

" I had to take one of my cars for a drive yesterday as the alarm kept going off due to a low battery"

Thanks for the reminder! My car lives in an underground carpark 400 yards from home, so I wouldn't hear the alarm. Though suspect the staff would phone me if it was sounding. Nevertheless, probably a good time to find an excuse (trip to the big supermarket on the outskirts of town) to top up the charge.

Genghis,

"Not sure what the BP contract says, but does anybody think they will be offloading HUR oil if they can't sell their own first? "

Well in that case, shame on you. I'm not going to go check references again, bit I think you'll find the details on page 235 of Hurricain's 'Aim Admission Document' under the investors' section of the company website.

BP has contracted to offload all of the EPS oil up to 37 million bbl. And if they have trouble passing it on, well that's their problem, not 'ours'.

Genghis,

"With what has been occurring in WTI recently there is even some doubt over whether all hedging counterparties will be robust enough to fulfil. "

Precisely.

Longwait,

"We're not in the endgame yet, Double."

Hmm. Each to their own opinion, and there aren't many pieces left on the board.

But of course I've felt that for at least half my life.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjN5uHRIcjM

"Saudi Arabia $80, Russia $40, HUR $30 (according to one poster, although I thought it was lower)." Yes, I believe it's only with Brent lower than $25 bbl or so that HUR is running a bit tight. But Hurricane's just a little independent oil-company, not a couple of Sovereign Nations with human-rights records filthier than my rangerover (which takes a lot of doing) and a habit of getting out the guns when things don't go their way. Plus with their buddies the Chines, they've inadvertantly brought down the Western economy, which was always their intention anyway. Except with a total misunderstanding that we're no longer living in the middle ages and the 'global village' nature of the world, they've just gone shot themselves in the foot. It'll take a bit of time for their rudimentary nervous systems to transmit that pain-signal to their brains, but when it arrives, sparks may fly.

Anyway, what's wrong with the 'endgame'? The 'final table' in a poker tournament is always the most fun.

..................

PS (With wordcount to spare0, some off-topic for the skywatchers. Unfortunately Comet Atlas, promised to be the best lightshow of the year, has broken apart, and is now just a lot of little bits heading for the Sun. Which is a bit of a disappointment, but typical of the zeitgeist. Guess we'll just have to look out for the meteors...

Bother. Earlier I replied to Longwait's post " what the hell is the oil going to be used for ?"

sayng,

"Battletanks still run on diesel. Military drones and other aircraft aren't solar-powered. Only a minority of naval warships run on nuclear."

I forgot something. Most crematoria are diesel-fired, as well.

Longwait,

" what the hell is the oil going to be used for ?"

Battletanks still run on diesel. Military drones and other aircraft aren't solar-powered. Only a minority of naval warships run on nuclear.

Longwait,

"I did have an exchange with Double a year ago or two ago (or possibly both) in which I said that I was confident about HUR provided there wouldn't be a general stock market crash or oil price crash and he agreed with me."

Yes, I remember those discussions. Because I've been very wary about the robustness and stability of the global markets ever since 2008. Which is why I invested heavily in physical gold back then. Definitely a wise move (though my bank manager never really forgave me for it). And without wishing to show off, I made the right call back at the start of February, by selling some. If I hadn't done that, I'd be broke right now. Sure, the bank would grant me a good overdraft using a gold bar as security, but they'd be charging me interest.

But this double-whammy 'crash' is historic. And quite unexpected, even as little as five months ago. Two black swans at the same time greedily feeding on a background of 'climate change' paranoia. Of course the CV19 pandemic ISN'T without precedent. But panic having been whipped up by politicians and the media, a vicious circle has been created. Closing churches for the first time in 800 years? And the pubs? Plus of course oil has NEVER been in negative territory like now. The 'new normal' won't be the old one, that's for sure.

Strangely, though, I'm not exactly 'frightened' by the dire HUR SP. (Nor, come to that, CV19: I have no plans to live to a hundred.) The company is of course facing huge challenges now, but so are countless other independent oil companies. And HUR still remains in a better position than quite a lot of 'em.

Genghis,

"For anyone genuinely interested, you will need to be around in the early hours when the windscreen effect gives the best chance of meteors. Perhaps AWK can look up from his online poker game for an hour or so."

I have a more-than-just -passing interest in astronomy. And were I free in my movements, I'd probably be down at the little cottage in the country so I could lie in the garden in the early hours, hoping to see the Lyrid meteor shower. Unfortunately I'm 'not free', and here in the centre of town there's enough background 'light pollution' to make it unlikely that I'll see anything of the show.

johnpwh,

"I dunno, we've got producers paying consumers to take away the oil they've just paid other people to pull out the ground, a total moronic head case of a President with his finger on the button, and our PM tucked up in bed in his PJs and a thermometer inserted where the sun doesn't shine. Is this what LSD is like? "

No. Not if it's from a good lab.

(Plus i don't know where you got the knowledge about the PM's temperature-taking, but I suspect he rather enjoys it.)

"I'm a virtual prisoner in my flat"

Join the club.

" I'm nearly out of loo rolls"

This is something I don't understand. The 'stockpiling' of bum-wipe seemingly prevalent in the UK. My local shop seems to occasionally run low on things like eggs, flour, pasta, and tinned fish or cassoulet. In fact bogroll is something I only buy when there's just one roll left. I don't eat the stuff.

" I go to kip nightly hoping it will all have gone away when i wake next morning. Only day after day it bloody hasn't. Its like groundhog day without Sonny and Cher."

Again, join the club. Except I don't understand the reference to Sonny and Cher and Marmots (as 'groundhogs' are known over here. Delightful creatures. Marmots, that is, not Sonny & Cher).

Are you sure you haven't been experimenting with some of that stuff you mentioned earlier?

Jiffy,

"During a normal flu season, frequent weed smokers know the drill."

What gives you the impression I know anything about such things?

Jiffy,

"Maybe that's what this really means, the cost of storage is far outstripping the value of the oil produced?"

To my mind, not exactly. The thing being, 'storage space' is physically limited. From my daily 'World Oil' e-newsletter, I've learned that the USA 'central reserve' tankfarm is near 70% full, and rapidly going to 'fill to the top' per presidential dictat. And the number of oil tankers both at sea and on land is likewise limited.

Plus there's now no short-term easy solution to the conundrum. Personally I'd love it if fuel stations paid me to fill my tank! But first someone's got to make the decision to allow me to drive 100 miles just to cut some grass, or re-open the casinos. Otherwise I don't really have need to use my car at all. So no need for fuel, even if it's free.

But there's another problem. Cutting production might help. But getting those wells back into production might in many cases be difficult, and cost money. But where is the money going to come from, now that governments have decided to pay people to do nothing? Bit of a vicious circle, to my mind. Especially as some people might rather get used to the idea of doing nothing, and people who can 'work from home' might decide it's better than getting on the tube every day.

..................

I've just noticed I've got a bit of wordspace left, so here's a weird O/T anecdote to amuse you.

On Friday 13th March, I drove to Royan to play cards. My trip to Marrakesh already having been cancelled. And I had to fill up my car on the way. Drove into the service-area, got out, opened the fuel-filler cap cover, fuel cap as well, then noticed a sign on the pump saying I had to pay in advance. (This is quite common on French motorways, because some people will fill up and drive off without paying. Probably in a stolen car.) So I walked towards the 'shop area' to do that, bumped into the still-open flap, and broke the hinge. Oh dear. Knew straight away this would cost me money (rangerover spares don't come cheap), and the hinge is plastic, so I couldn't repair it. So having paid, and filled up, put the flap in place with a strip of gaffer-tape, to ensure it didn't 'flap around in the wind', putting yet more scratches on the bodywork of my long-suffering vehicle.

And I've only once used my car since then.

However, two days ago I managed to track down a ' flap / hinge' assembly of the right colour on ebay uk. So a slight light at the end of the tunnel in that department. But the postal services are on semi-lockdown as well. So I'm wondering which will arrive first: my fuel cap, or being able to drive again?

PS The Friday 13th bit also amuses me a bit. Because I'd deliberately decided NOT to fly to Marrakesh on such a day. But my evening at Royan was wildly successful! (Other than breaking a bit of my car.)