Member Info for adoubleuk

Klepto,

"ADUK,congratulations on winning two poker tournaments"

Thank you for the kind thoughts. Unfortunsately I was unable to repeat the feat last night / this morning, when I lost dismally. However, having banked about twenty times more in winnings over the last 72 hours than I've lost in entry-fees, I'm not complaining. I thought that was the whole point of the thing. it sure isn't 'fun'. Bit like investing in Hurricane, really.

Oh, just before I go do other things, here's something a friend sent to me which might be helpful. Sorry if it seems O/T.

As we enter the next 3 weeks of lockdown here is a summary of the advice:

You MUST NOT leave the house for any reason, but if you have a reason, you can leave the house.

Shops are closed, except those shops that are open.

You must not go to work but you can get another job and go to work.

Gloves won't help, but they can still help so wear them sometimes or not.

STAY HOME, but it's important to go out.

There is no shortage of groceries in the supermarkets, but there are many things missing. Sometimes you won’t need loo rolls but you should buy some just in case you need some.

The virus has no effect on children except those children it effects.

Animals are not affected, but there is still a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there.

Stay 2 metres away from tigers (see point above).

You will have many symptoms if you get the virus, but you can also get symptoms without getting the virus, get the virus without having any symptoms or be contagious without having symptoms, or be non contagious with symptoms..

To help protect yourself you should eat well and exercise, but eat whatever you have on hand as it's better not to go out shopping.

It's important to get fresh air but don't go to parks but go for a walk. But don’t sit down, except if you are old, but not for too long or if you are pregnant or if you’re not old or pregnant but need to sit down. If you do sit down don’t eat your picnic.

If you are sick, you can go out when you are better but anyone else in your household can’t go out when you are better unless they need to go out.

You can get restaurant food delivered to the house. These deliveries are safe. But groceries you bring back to your house have to be decontaminated outside for 3 hours including Pizza.

You are safe if you maintain the safe social distance when out but you can’t go out with friends at the safe social distance.

The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours ... or four hours... six hours... I mean days, not hours... But it needs a damp environment. Or a cold environment that is warm and dry.

Schools are closed so you need to home educate your children, unless you send them to school because you’re not at home.

You should stay in lock down until the virus stops infecting people but it will only stop infecting people if we all get infected, so it’s important we get infected and some don’t get infected.

You should maintain social distance at all times, but everyone can gather closely on bridges to clap once a week.

soundasapenny,

"What an ignorant halfwit you are."

Who? Me? Or Longwait, who started this thread?

Back to you. Await response eagerly.

Longwait,

"I assume you were using 'sure' sarcastically, Double."

Qui, moi? Sarcasm? Oscar Wilde described sarcasm as 'the lowest form of wit', so considering myself to be a sometimes and somewhat witty sort of person, would I stoop to such depths? However, he did then go on to qualify that, by also claiming that it is the 'highest form of intelligence'. So maybe I might use sarcasm, occasionally. Just to display some modesty, and not to send people like ttt and bartlebottom back to the darkness which they inhabit in too much of a hurry. Because I rather like seeing those 'green boxes' stacking up. It shows success in getting people to waste their time.

Longwait,

"The real oil market is killing Nigeria."

Sorry to be so flippant to say this (no, I'm not, really), but tough cookie, Nigeria.

I've lost a few friends who were killed there.

Couldn't happen to a nicer country.

Of course, if you get an email from someone there who's come into a fortune but can't get it out of escrow without your financial help, I'm sure you'll help out.

Laser,

Thanks a million. Just this morning, I was thinking the FSR would be coming out soon.

Regarding 'our' contract with the PBLJ, nothing seems to have changed much. However the preamble by TO requires close reading.

Longwait,

(Note I've chaned the header.)

"I took your speculation about OAG being leaned upon, put it together with certain majors apparently encircling HUR's territory, and got a whopping conspiracy theory, which makes me wonder."

Yup, it does give pause for reflection, doesn't it? But the trouble with conspiracy theories is that just heading off at a one-degree tangent may take one so far off-course that one ends up in Antarctica rather than Rio.

Nevertheless I'm a great believer in the old adage that 'just because the doctor diagnosed you as being paranoid, it doesn't mean you're NOT being watched'.

CV19 has put a real crimp in things, with business deals being postponed, and so on. In a few months time (September?) it'll be really interesting to see who's put in bids to Centrica for the Spirit sale.

It's a very long while since I've mentioned this here, but I can't help still thinking about Dyson and the fight Sir james had with Hoover while he was still developing his machine. And the way Hoover was quoted as saying (I paraphrase) that if they'd managed to get the licence on the intellectual property, the prototype would have been put on a shelf and not gone to market at all. ecause nit threatened the most profitable part of their business, which isn't vacuum-cleaner sales, but selling vacuum-cleaner 'bags'.

The parallel is striking.

Cf similar apocryphal stories, like the man in the fifties who found a way to make a Cadillac do 100 mpg. Though I don't believe that one, actually.

feelinlucky,

"...just seen ADUK's comment about BP and Shell taking licences next to hur's! need to check who got what and where"

This may help, but not sure. I'm still feeling sort of wobbly after a VERY long night. After winning my poker game and scribbling some stuff here, I wasn't sleepy, so entered a stupid tiny little 50 cents buy-in tournament, and won that, as well! OK, it only paid me thirty euros or so, but that covers my day's expenses. Doesn't make me much good at looking at WoS block-licence maps, though....

PS This ability to do well in playing online poker tournaments is worrying the heck out of me. I'll be subconsciously gaining all sorts of terrible habits, like raising with rubbish hands like Ace - Ten. Which will cost me dearly once the live cash games kick back in after 'lockdown' !

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/867750/32nd_Round_AA_West_of_Shetland_Consultation_Draft.pd

SlowRoll,

"More acreage sounds a bit like that guy running Ukog."

'Acreage' in terms of block-leases is the 'technical' term still used within the industry.

JoeSoap,

"Requires comprehension."

That's got to be the understatement of the week! It's a hefty document, all 132 pages of it. And personally I won't pretend to have read more than about a quarter of it yet. Anyway, it's the 'operational' stuff which interests me. I'll skip the financials: we've got money in the piggy-bank; that's good enough for me.

Some snippets of the 'operational' stuff are brand new, though. Even pertinent to recent discussions here. Looks like both myself and MCB55 were wrong regarding flowrates from the individual wells. It's Six which is being preferentially pulled from, not Seven Zed.

There's also quite a lot of detail about the water-cut 'issue'. Which might hopefully cause those who 'doommonger' about it on BB's to shut up, though I doubt it will, 'cos they probably won't even bother to read the thing.

Required reading.

Longwait,

"'Current production rates are not meaningful - we know there is plenty of oil and fractures will produce at very high initial rates.'

That has to be the post of the week.
After all the ( some supposedly-expert) opinion that fractured basement reservoirs don't work, that the oil wasn't there, that even if it was, it wouldn't be possible to extract it, that even if it could be extracted, it wouldn't last six months, that even if it lasted six months, the production rate could not be increased because of water cuts and because FB was unproven, we now hear that to produce at 20,000 bopd is actually quite normal."

Hear hear. I'd be tempted to filter 'prof foresight', but his posts are so agonisingly funny, I can't.

Compare and contrast.

'Fractured Basement'. Hurricane's Lancaster field Early Production System, built and installed on a shoestring budget, current output somewhere around 20,000 bbl / day, potential for lots more but 'constrained' by surface equipment / environmental reasons.

'Conventional'. Premier Oil's Solan field, Fully developed (though with a new well currently being drilled) at a cost at least three times that of Hurricane's 'quick and dirty' EPS. Average oil output to date: 3600 bbl /day.

'Nuff said.

JoeSoap,

"Answer was given in the 'Finding Petroleum' presentation Jan 2018.Around 23 minutes in, referring to slide 32.
About 70m drop. "

Thanks for that, I hadn't seen that presentation before, but have now bookmarked it to watch at further length. However, I think it just 'proves' (to some extent) that 7z having gone deeper was a drilling oversight, rather than anything planned. Petrofac and Schlumberger co**-d up again, in other words. Dr Trice (speaking) of course glosses over this.

Of course when encountering a fracture, the bit (or rather toolface) will tend to drop. But why wasn't this corrected? ASAP? Of course, Dr T is a geologist, not a drilling man. But allowing the well to get 70m below 'target' is pretty inexcusable. In fact it's downright shoddy, and I hope whoever on the DD team responsible for it is now scratching their furloughed arse.

Very interesting stuff to learn, even if two years down the line.

Tantalum,

". One thing I would like to see are the downhole pressures of the two wells when the other is and is not flowing and the pressure/time graph of these processes."

You and me too! Unfortunately, not working for the company or 'need to know' I know I'll never see such data. So I just take their word for it on trust. Unlike others, who seem to mistrust the confidence the company has in such data, and the conclusions drawn.

What really confuses me is why such 'Doubting Thomases' decide to have invested, as they claim to have done.

SteveE60,

"Adouble time for you to find a poker game !"

no sweat. just got knocked out of one. probably because I was corresponding on this BB during the 'pause'. or at least, that's my excuse and am sticking to it. now waiting 'till close to midnight to barge into my 'regular' game (where I usually get paid).

Effin' hate online poker, though. can't wait 'til lockdown ends, and friends can meet again. though once the cards are in the air, they become the worst of enemies.

Sailplane,

Yours was a 'technical' post which deserves a reply.

"This is a simplified, ball park estimation, not taking into account such things as fracture surface flow resistance, due to the fracture passageways not having smooth surfaces, nor to any tapering of fractures as they ascend to the well bore.
Anyone with genuine knowledge to improve on these thoughts/calculations?"

Firstly I'd like to repeat that I am NOT a reservoir engineer (though have some knowledge of that discipline), so cannot be considered an 'expert' in that sphere.

However, I feel that your overall 'look' at the thing is pretty much correct. But with a caveat. Specifically 'not taking into account such things as fracture surface flow resistance, due to the fracture passageways not having smooth surfaces, nor to any tapering of fractures as they ascend to the well bore'.

To my mind, such factors have to be 'taken into account'. Also, given the 'buried hill' nature of the Rona Ridge, it's almost taken as a given that the fracture 'width' is larger, the closer to the top of the structure one is.

7z is a weird beast. Yes, it does deeper, and I'm pretty sure that was a bit of a mistake, and it wasn't meant to be that way. It was the sidetrack off the 'pilot well Seven', and really ought to have been 'horizontal' like Six, but didn't turn out that way. Drilling / directional / lithological problems? I don't know. But nevertheless and despite the water-cut, it's a nice producer, thank you very much.

In fact, and in hindsight (20 / 20 as always) I bet the guys and gals at Hurricane are kicking themselves for having done the 7z horizontal sidetrack (at great expense) and not just stuck with the original Seven, plugging it back to a certain depth!

All interesting stuff, though, and part of the ongoing story.

"Hi ADUK
I've been pondering, should HUR sit tight and preserve cash or splash out on another Lancaster producer. Lockdown will not last forever and when its over everyone will be getting in their cars, booking flights and cruises. Isn't it worth a gamble ?"

Hi DiveCentre,

I don't know why you asked me that, and really, I haven't an answer. I've never had the pleasure of meeting Dr Trice, though I'd very much like to. We have much in common, including a taste in whisky, though his preferred ones aren't mine. And although I chain-smoke cigatettes, I detest cigars.

But also, I don't think he's a 'gambling man' as such. Despite the old saying about 'never play poker with a man called Doc', I'd take him on any day.

Hey! He's taken his company from the legendary garden shed to where it is now, through serendipitous meetings with taxi-drivers and so on, to financial backers, etcetera.. And that (the really early stuff, before the company launched public) is some of the most interesting. Because a lot of wells were drilled back then, costing millions, some 'dry holes', others equivocal. But the 'backers' might have been taking a gamble then, but now it's paying off.

These days are different. And the world has changed since then. Plus the company's 'public'.

We're entering a massive economic recession, so if the company draws its horns in, relies upon steady revenue rather than further 'exploration' right now, I think that's quite understandable. And as a shareholder, I support such an approach if that's the one being made.

DC,

"20K including downtime was forecast as a possible not a definite."

Furthermore, in today's QI RNS, that includes January, when we KNOW that production was less than 20,000.

Oh, and I HAVE just gone to look at the SXX BB. And it's 90% off-topic! Puts the poker thread here over the weekend to shame. Lots and lots of good jokes to be learned theer. I recommend it.

DC,

Again, writing at same time! Happened earlier today, but it was with MCB55.

Funny, isn't it? The way the 'knowitalls' write some bit of idiocy, and the real oilmen pounce! One day, they'll learn.